I feel bad for the Sacramento Kings.
This team played an outstanding 82-game regular season, posting the best offensive campaign in league history while ending the franchise’s 16-year playoff drought. They earned the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
This team should be discussed as a dark-horse pick for winning the West. And yet at the start of the playoffs, they’re Rodney Dangerfield: They’re getting no respect.
The Warriors were rooting to play the Kings in the first round. What should be a NorCal rivalry is more of a novelty to the Dubs.
At top sportsbooks, the Kings are massive underdogs to win the best-of-seven Battle of I-80 series. FanDuel has the Kings at +215 to win (a $100 bet can profit $215); DraftKings +225.
But that might not be a bad bet.
Respected or not, the truth is that heading into this first-round matchup, the Kings ask several questions of the Warriors — and the Warriors ask a few of themselves — that are not easily answered.
The first comes when the Kings have the ball.
The Kings will provide the Dubs no feeling-out period in this series. The Warriors’ championship-level defense will need to show up from the opening tip of Game 1.
Former Warriors top assistant Mike Brown is now the head coach in Sacramento. He runs the Dubs’ offensive system, meaning the Kings are in constant motion.
And while it’s not a perfect replica of Golden State’s attack, only the Warriors can say they make more passes, handoffs, cuts, and screens than the Kings.
The main point of difference between the Warriors’ and Kings’ offense is while the Warriors play a side-to-side game, Sacramento is more downhill when the ball is in point guard De’Aaron Fox’s hands.
That’s because the Fox and Domantas Sabonis pick-and-roll — while not the foundation of the Kings’ offense — is an elite play.
Whether Fox dishes or finishes, the play has resulted in an elite rate of more than a point per possession this season.
It also brings about trips to the free-throw line. While the Warriors were last in the NBA in free-throw attempts, the Kings averaged 25 per game, good for seventh in the league.
Fox’s speed is going to be a problem for the Warriors. The Dubs had real problems with Ja Morant in last year’s playoffs — after Gary Payton II was injured and before Morant picked up an injury of his own, the Grizzlies’ point guard was driving to the basket with impunity. Fox can do an outstanding Morant impression. (On the court, that is.)
Payton II is healthy for this series, and Donte DiVincenzo might be able to put in shifts, but it’s impossible to estimate if Andrew Wiggins will be at his best for the series after months away from the team, and Klay Thompson’s days as a point-guard hound are behind him.
With Sabonis pulling the Warriors’ center — be that Kevon Looney or… well, I guess it’s just Looney — out to the perimeter, Fox should have clear lanes for drives.
And if he doesn’t, Sabonis is an elite option to take the ball. Not only can he score at all three levels off the dribble, but he’s also an elite passer for a big man.
Those two are the hub. The rest of the Kings create outstanding balance around them.
You can’t fluke your way into a historic offense. When they’re at their best, Fox and Sabonis are a 1-2 punch that is close to unmatched.
Whether he’s playing forward or smallball center, Draymond Green’s job is to blow up those pick-and-roll combinations, playing as a “free safety” for the Warriors’ defense. Green’s one-of-a-kind ability to do so over the last nine years has put four title banners in the Chase Center rafters, but even he will admit that the NBA’s tables are slanted towards offense.
If Sacramento attacks the way I expect, it will put Green in countless two-on-one situations in the lane.
While Green will win more than his fair share of those situations — he’s just that good — he’s also liable to end up in foul trouble.
And when Green is in foul trouble, the Warriors’ defensive game plan goes out the window. In those situations, the Warriors often go to a zone defense, which is easy pickings for the Kings.
Yes, the playoffs might be a different beast than the regular season, and the Warriors’ defense should be improved heading into the “real season.” Still, in this series, the Kings are equipped with Fox, Sabonis, and all the movement and shooters around them to maintain their offensive output.
The worst-case scenario? The Kings run off-ball screens with Jordan Poole’s man when he’s on the court. That’s two easy points, every time.
Now, the Warriors’ defense — with Green leading the way — can do enough to stop the Kings from going for 120 points every game. Payton, Looney, and Jonathan Kuminga will be big factors there.
And while the Kings don’t present any real issues for the Warriors when the Dubs have the ball, Sacramento’s offense — even on an “off” day — should set a high bar for Golden State to overtake every game.
So can Golden State overtake that bar four times in seven tries?
Absolutely.
But it’s more challenging without home-court advantage.
Sacramento might be a bus ride away, but it’s still a road environment for the Warriors. Saturday’s Game 1 will be the biggest sporting event in the capital city in a generation.
I know the Dubs have won a road game in 27 straight playoff series, but Golden State also won 11 road games all season, with only two coming against playoff teams. In both wins, their opponents were without their top player(s).
That won’t be the case in this series.
Yes, no one, save for their laudable die-hard fans, expects the Kings to light the beam atop the Golden 1 Center four times against the Warriors. But Sacramento will require the Dubs to play their A-game on offense and defense.
That means limited fouling and sound rotations on defense, incisive movement and limited turnovers on offense.
It can happen. Absolutely. The Kings’ best is really good.
The Warriors’ best is better, but after everything you’ve seen from the Warriors this season, are you willing to bet on that best showing up four times out of seven?
