This time a year ago, Super Formula Lights race winner Sato was something of an unexpected choice to drive the Red Bull-sponsored machine that ended up being run by Team Goh following service provider Servus Japan’s split from previous partner Team Mugen.
With Japan’s border restrictions preventing a pukka Red Bull junior in the mould of Pierre Gasly or Dan Ticktum being sent over from Europe for a third year in a row, Sato was recommended to the energy drink firm by Honda, and was viewed as a younger, more promising option than the driver who had occupied the seat in 2021, Hiroki Otsu.
Indeed, at the start of the season, the talk was of Sato potentially being groomed for a future in Formula 2. Team Goh boss Masashi Yamamoto said it was his goal to identify young Japanese talents for consideration for a place on Red Bull’s junior scheme, with Sato the first to gain such status, and the team was working to prepare him for a second chance of racing in Europe.
But now, not only is the dream of racing in F2 set to remain exactly that, it’s far from certain whether Sato will get a second crack at Super Formula amid Mugen wresting back control of Red Bull’s programme in the series and Team Goh’s resulting likely withdrawal.
So, in the event that Sato misses out on a seat in 2023, can the Rookie of the Year feel hard done by given his performance level this term?
The year started very well with second in qualifying for the Fuji opener, but sadly for Sato, the chance of a debut podium, or even a win, was squandered by a poor start. It was the same story on Sunday from fourth on the grid, leaving the rookie with just four points to show from a weekend that had promised so much.
In hindsight, that set the tone for the year as Sato failed to qualify so high again all season, with his next-best grid slot being ninth for Round 9 at Suzuka. Teammate Atsushi Miyake also showed he would be no pushover in the battle for Rookie of the Year honours with fifth in Round 2 at Fuji, backed up by an impressive run to third at Autopolis.
By the middle of the year, with Rounds 3 (Suzuka), 4 (Autopolis) and 5 (Sugo) yielding just a single point for 10th at Suzuka, it was clear that Sato was not doing enough for Red Bull to consider him for a future in Europe, especially with old rival Ayumu Iwasa performing well as a rookie in Formula 2.
Yamamoto suggested as much after the Sugo race, saying: “Dr. [Helmut] Marko is strict and a podium finish is his minimum requirement.”
Upon the series' return to Fuji for Round 6, Sato produced a confidence-boosting drive to sixth from a lowly 16th on the grid, albeit one that was influenced by the timing of the safety car, while more points were banked in the fight for Rookie of the Year with eighth in Round 8 at Motegi, where he fought his way through to seventh in one of his stronger drives of the year.
That set the stage for a breakthrough in the penultimate round of the season at Suzuka, as Sato went from ninth on the grid to third behind Mugen pair Ukyo Sasahara and Tomoki Nojiri, vaulting himself ahead of Miyake in the Rookie of the Year standings in the process.
It was a drive that left chief engineer Ryan Dingle, who had engineered Otsu in 2021 and Sasahara the year before that, impressed.
“The race came to us as [Sho] Tsuboi pitted early, which opened a gap that Ren could take advantage of,” said Dingle. “But he also passed a few cars on track which is quite difficult at Suzuka. He even passed Tsuboi on his out lap, which I had never heard of before! He’s a driver who reacts when you say, ‘push’, or, ‘I need you to pass the cars ahead’, which is nice.”
You might expect that winning Rookie of the Year might have released some pressure from Sato, but instead the final day of the season was little short of disaster. A spin in Q1 left him 14th on the grid, and a bad start on a still damp grid slot left him down the order when he spun behind the safety car, earning himself a drive-through penalty for his troubles.
Miyake by contrast put in his best performance since his Autopolis podium to finish eighth, although he missed out on Rookie of the Year to teammate Sato by four points.
The Suzuka weekend as a whole seemed to neatly sum up Sato’s season, with his spins on Sunday proving particularly costly on a day that one of his rivals for a seat in 2023, Dandelion Racing driver Otsu, finished second behind newly-crowned champion Nojiri.
Dingle summarised: “The team did a good job dealing with such an inexperienced driver but I feel like we left a lot of points on the table. At Fuji [Rounds 1 and 2], with normal starts, we should have had two podiums, and with a good start we had a really good shot at a win. Then there were errors with pitwork and other things that cost us points on both cars.
“Ren dealt with the pressure well. When he gets in the car, he’s in a different zone, but when he’s out of the car it can take a toll on him. He’s had a lot of outside input over the last couple of years. But as you can see from Suzuka [Round 9], Fuji, and even Sugo and Motegi, he has the raw talent. It’s just a matter of putting everything together.”
In a normal year, Sato’s performances may have been just enough to keep him safe for another season given his rookie status, with some mistakes and inconsistency to be expected. But unfortunately for the 20-year-old, Goh’s expected exit has left him needing a seat elsewhere just when Honda is preparing to welcome at least two new foreign drivers to its roster.
As previously reported, the Red Bull-sponsored drive at Mugen is set to go the way of Liam Lawson, while Raoul Hyman, who is bringing his $600,000 HPD dowry to the series after winning the Formula Regional Americas title, looks poised for a place at B-Max Racing.
Against that backdrop, it’s hard to see where Sato fits in, and while there’s still the chance of a last-minute reprieve, current indications are the Rookie of the Year’s name will be absent when Honda unveils its 2023 driver line-ups next month.
If that proves the case, Sato’s first campaign in Japan’s top single-seater series could well end up being his last, and his talent left frustratingly unfulfilled.
