A decade ago, getting out of coal was seen as an economic cliff for the Hunter to climb. Today, getting out of coal has become the gateway to regional prosperity. When the region exited primary steelmaking two decades ago, coal was the solution.
Now coal is the problem.
Euromonitor is an esteemed global research company. Its record in predicting economic trends is second to none. Euromonitor's predictions for 2022 should make us sit up straight, snap to attention - and fret that we remain the world's top dog in shipping coal to international markets.
Ten years ago Euromonitor's predictions were remarkably accurate. They foretold the rise of inner-city life as the groovy way to live. They saw consumers becoming switched on about consumer rights and environmental responsibilities. DIY and slow living were seen as tempering 20th century addiction to consumer spending.
Remarkably, Euromonitor predicted the universal embrace of the smartphone as our basic communication device and the emergence of what we now call "influencers" as our consumer and cultural role models.
Euromonitor's predictions for the coming year are intriguing, especially from the vantage of the Hunter. They show the folly of ongoing dependence on old king coal.
Euromonitor's first prediction is that households will be mindful of back-up plans for supply shortages in a world that continues to struggle with COVID-19. Last year we saw the fragility of the supply chains that stretch thousands of kilometres to production centres in Asia. In 2022, consumers will not only give attention to well-stocked pantries, says Euromonitor, but give allegiance to local suppliers where loyalty is rewarded by guaranteed access to essential goods and services. Every household will have a supply strategy.
Euromonitor's second prediction says consumer consciousness of climate change will intensify. Every product, from bread to toothpaste, will be scrutinised for its impact on climate.
Euromonitor's other eight predictions paint an intriguing canvas for the play out of supply chain planning and climate change activism. Here, the opportunities for our region could be those of dreams, were it not for coal.
Euromonitor sees a world where the elderly re-create what it means to be old. Their skill in using digital devices and appliances can keep them connected, informed, involved, enhancing their power as consumers and citizens. The future of downtown Newcastle can be more than stacked apartments filled by seniors staring mindlessly at a water view.
Not unrelated to re-casting the elderly as active, intelligent people, Euromonitor sees households as growing in confidence as 'financial aficionados', investors making independent decisions about where to park their savings, prepared to take a little risk, back a local start-up.
These type of new behaviours see people reaching for the "great life refresh", a release from the anxieties and constraints of COVID-19. Here, says Euromonitor, the rise of the "rural urbanites" will drive lifestyle choices, just as inner-city urbanism drove lifestyle trends a decade ago.
Is there a region better positioned than the Hunter, were it not for coal, to showcase its rural and environmental assets for the "great life re-fresh"? Where better for the rural urbanite than a life in invigorated historic towns and villages or exquisite coastal locales.
Euromonitor says the "metaverse" will free-up economic dependence on the large cities. The metaverse will see the amazing digital platforms devised for on-line entertainment mobilised for consumption and work activity. Has there been a better time to explore digital work hubs for professional services companies in Newcastle?
Then, says the Euromonitor crystal ball, there will be a yearning for authenticity, localness and self-respect, which will play out in two consumer trends: the re-valuing of second-hand or pre-loved things, and the search for goods and services that foster physical, emotional and spiritual wellbeing. Our region, without coal, is poised to deliver on these fronts, no?
Finally, says, Euromonitor, there is the "socialisation paradox", the desire for more social contact, post-COVID-19, but with the restraint that comes with our fear of the virus. Again, the Hunter, offers so much in resolving this paradox, traditions of unionism, cooperatives, social and sporting organisations, and a respect for privacy and autonomy.
The Euromonitor report bristles with opportunities for the Hunter, post-COVID-19. But this world needs also to be post-coal.
