The Boston Celtics are projected to win 53.9 games this season according to ESPN’s Kevin Pelton’s statistical projections (check out the full article for his methodology). That total is good enough for the best record in the NBA’s Eastern Conference during the 2022-23 season. It should be noted, however, that this model does not take into account head coach Ime Udoka’s suspension.
But there’s a case to be made that suspension may not matter so much to how the team fares this season, as well as the health of several frontcourt players at the start of the coming campaign — at least, if Pelton’s modeling accurately predicts how Boston’s campaign is going to unfold.
Noting that even without Danilo Gallinari and Robert Williams III, Pelton writes “the Celtics have a rock-solid top seven with the addition of Malcolm Brogdon.”
Celtics Lab 144: Talking training camp and setting season goals with Gary Gulman https://t.co/cjnqoMnUaN
— The Celtics Wire (@TheCelticsWire) September 29, 2022
“Additional injuries are a concern with Boston’s depth dropping off quickly,” he suggests, “but the team has the NBA’s best projection by more than four wins after finishing 2021-22 with the league’s second-best point differential and reaching the NBA Finals.”
Lofty expectations to be sure, but the statistical models Pelton draws on focus on tangible aspects of what drives wins in the NBA like availability and previous performance.
Is it possible these models paint a more accurate picture of the season to come than some worry Boston might be up against? We’ll have to see the games played to find out, but with preseason tipping off on Sunday, the start of that process is not so far away.
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