In a surprising turn of events, Ron DeSantis has ended his campaign just 48 hours before the New Hampshire primary. According to recent polls, the Republican field has narrowed down to two candidates: Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. A poll shows Trump leading with 54% of the potential vote, followed by Haley with 41%, while the remaining 3% is undecided. Despite DeSantis dropping out, Trump appears to be the frontrunner in the race.
One key factor for success in New Hampshire is the enthusiasm of unaffiliated voters, who make up 40% of the electorate. Governor Sununu has emphasized the importance of these voters, stating that they need to show up in equal or greater numbers than Republicans for Haley to have a chance. However, there are doubts about the level of enthusiasm on the ground, which has also been observed in Iowa. This lack of enthusiasm could hinder Haley's chances of securing a victory.
It is worth noting that Haley won 63% of moderates in Iowa, which could potentially work in her favor. New Hampshire has a political culture that values centrist independence, making it a significant constituency for any candidate. Despite this, Trump has struggled to appeal to moderates and centrist independents, which could provide an opening for Haley.
While Trump seems to be consolidating his support and pulling ahead early, there is still a path for Haley if she can secure a strong second-place finish in New Hampshire. Closing the gap between her and Trump by four to six points and generating significant enthusiasm among voters could give her the necessary momentum going into the South Carolina primary, where Trump is currently leading.
However, it's crucial to recognize that South Carolina remains a challenging race for Haley, with polls showing Trump's substantial lead. Additionally, critics highlight Trump's praise for autocrats and dictators, such as the Hungarian leader Viktor Orban. By endorsing leaders known for undemocratic practices, Trump raises concerns about his dedication to democracy and liberty.
Despite the Republican National Senate Campaign Committee stating that the primary process is effectively over and urging party members to support Trump, Haley is still in the race and has the potential to shake up the dynamics. The early consolidation around Trump can be seen as an example of careerism and political opportunism, rather than a genuine reflection of the voters' will.
In the end, however, the outcome of the New Hampshire primary and the subsequent races will ultimately rest on the voters' decision. New Hampshire has a history of surprising results, with candidates like John McCain and Bill Clinton securing unexpected victories. The upcoming primary will test whether the state's voters will continue this tradition or align themselves with the frontrunner.
