ARLINGTON, Texas _ New to the team but not the basepaths or the art of creating runs by any length necessary, Mookie Betts warned Dodgers teammate Corey Seager before the start of this season that when he's on second, look for the chance steal together.
Follow his lead.
"I may make a move. I may not," Betts explained. "Always have to be ready."
On Tuesday night, in Game 1 of the World Series, Betts made his move, Seager followed, and the Dodgers ran away with an 8-3 victory. Sandwiched between two home runs that elevated the score was a series of stolen bases by Betts that won the nation free tacos from Taco Bell � "TACOS ON ME!!!!", Betts tweeted Wednesday around lunchtime � and revealed the added cayenne Betts has brought to the Dodgers, tweaking one of the league's deepest lineups just enough to make it one of the most dynamic.
He has stolen homers at the wall, bases on the diamond, and, if given the chance in this series, he'll steal a hit with a bunt.
"Stolen bases are a thing for me," Betts said after the win. "That's how I create runs. That's how I cause a little havoc on the bases. I trade pride in stealing bases. Once I get on base, I'm just trying to touch home, and however I get there, I get there. But I'm going to be aggressive on the bases."
Betts led off the fifth inning with a walk. He would then steal two bases, bringing Seager along behind him for the double steal of third and second, respectively. The Tampa Bay Rays have reached the World Series through exceptional run prevention, and they put on a defensive clinic in the American League Championship Series. The Rays smothered the Astros. They came undone as Betts annexed 180 feet against them. Betts' movement on the bases put the fielders in motion, and his speed hastened the fielders' internal clocks, too. When Max Muncy skipped a grounder to first base, Betts was moving on the contact play.
First baseman Yandy Diaz came home with his throw, and knowing that the throw was coming from first base (right side of the field), Betts slid to the left side of the plate. He was safe, and what was a one-run game at the time quickly became a 6-1 Dodger lead. The ball didn't leave the infield and Betts had conjured a key run that unlocked at rout.
"Just another element Mookie brings," said LA manager Dave Roberts, who eats for free in Boston because of an October stolen base. "He does a lot of study to create stress. He creates tension."
The Dodgers tied a World Series with three steals in a single inning, though it's a record that had not been matched in 108 years. The New York Giants were the last team to do it � in 1912. Betts became the first player since 1921 to walk and steal two bases in the same inning of a World Series game. The previous player to do it, according to ESPN, was Babe Ruth in Game 2 of the 1921 World Series. That was the Babe's first World Series with the Yankees after the Red Sox sold him into pinstripes because of their financial concerns.
Sound familiar?
After the game, a chorus of teammates used similar words to describe what Betts did to grease the rally. Asked by a Sports Illustrated reporter what their favorite thing that Betts did during the game, the list ran from the opposite-field homer he hit as a punctuation to his evening to the steal of third base. Betts said he would choose the contact play that resulted in a run, because, you know, the game is about runs. In each case, the Dodgers talked about the "added element" that Betts had brought to an already strong roster.
They felt it against them in the 2018 World Series when Betts, like the Babe before him, was with Boston, and they feel it as a tailwind with them in the 2020 World Series.
"He's bringing a different element to the game for us," catcher Austin Barnes said.
The Dodgers have stolen eight bases in 13 playoff games so far this postseason. They had five in five playoff games a year ago, and they did steal 13 in their 16 playoff games in 2018, the season that ended with Betts' Sox celebrating a title at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers have won eight consecutive NL West titles, and from 2017 to 2019, pre-Betts, they did steal 24 bases in October. Nine of them, however, were by Cody Bellinger, the center fielder/first baseman/MVP. The three bases the Dodgers stole in the fifth inning of Game 1 were more in an inning than they had total in 11 of their previous 16 playoff series.
From 2013, the start of the streak of postseason appearances, through 2017, they had more than four steals in an entire series only once in nine series. In 2017, they had two series where they stole one base � and in each series they were caught stealing twice.
There was a message in Mookie's moves Tuesday.
"Showed that we don't have to hit home runs to be successful," he said.
The stolen base has fallen out of favor during baseball's power age. Gone are the Lou Brocks and Rickey Hendersons who would steal 100 bases annually. Betts' career high was 30, and that came in 2018 when he went 30-30 on his way to winning the AL MVP ... the Gold Glove Award and Silver Slugger and a World Series title. This season, his first with the Dodgers, Betts stole 10 bases on 12 tries. That pro-rates to 27 stolen bases, and through his career his steals have kept on the heels of his power (155 homers, 136 steals). The game has fallen off the pace overall because steals aren't considered a high-percentage play.
In Hedge Fund Baseball, everything is risk management and too steals can be a risk not worth managing, especially when teams have become so deft at defending against the steals. It wasn't too long ago that an opposing manager volunteered that his team won't try to steal against the Cardinals because of Yadier Molina � and, left unsaid, the emphasis the Cardinals put on pitchers being swift to the plate.
Steals don't factor into on-base percentage. They are outcome of being on base. They don't appear in OPS � the damage quotient that teams adore. They aren't part of slugging.
And, yet, they are.
If a double is worth two total bases when it comes to slugging, then shouldn't Betts' walk and two steals be worth three total bases in some way? A way to measure baseball is in the name: by the base. I've long jotted out little calculations that break the game down into 90 feet increments. What 90 feet did a player take? What 90 feet did a fielder stop? A lot of times this is best explained on defense when a Play Not Made allows a team to take an extra 90 feet it didn't earn. It's possible to expand that idea into a tabulation of 90 feet taken � whether it's on offense or defense.
Betts' game on Tuesday night is an example.
He walked (90), stole second (90), stole third (90), homered (4x90), and singled (90). Add all that up and he had a 720 game, on offense. During the NLCS, he robbed Freddie Freeman of a homer (4x90), stole extra-bases away from Marcell Ozuna with a catch at the wall (2x90), and had an essential catch in shallow right that took a hit away (90). That's 670 that he robbed in the field.
It's not as neat and tidy as a stat needs to be because it lacks standardization, for sure, and it's not as clean as, say, rebounds in basketball where they mathematically line up with shots taken. Though it is possible to do that. If a hitter takes 90 feet from the pitcher, that's a plus to him and a minus to the pitcher. If a fielder makes an error that allows 90 feet, that's a negative 90 to him. And when a player steals a base for a plus-90, that goes against the opposing team, negative-90.
An example of how that would work also comes from Game 1. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow allowed six runs on three hits through 4 1/3 innings. But what does that mean? We can see his ERA is not good, and his WHIP is awfully high, but measuring his outing in 90 feet increments is also telling. He got 13 outs (13x90), and he allowed a homer and two singles (6x90), and then the six walks (6x90). He took away 1,170 feet from the Dodgers, but he also allowed 1,080, for a net plus-90. That's it. In total, he prevented one base.
And that doesn't include the three steals on his watch.
It's oversimplified, I know, and needs refinement and there are advanced statistics out there that take this into account, deftly. But I like to tinker around with the calculation and think of each game in 90-foot tracts of land (taken or given). That's in part because it puts stolen bases back into the conversation as a way to do damage.
Havoc, as Betts said, is damage.
Tension, as Roberts said and knows, has value.
It's another 90 feet on a single or a walk just like a line drive to the gap is a double.
It is another way to get 90 feet closer to the most valuable stat of them all � run. You're either creating them or preventing them.
After the game, Betts was asked which way he prefers to create runs � driving them in or scoring them himself.
"I like winning," Betts said. "Whichever one is needed that day, I'll try to do that. You can't do just one. You have to do both."
