The first quarterback domino fell before the NFL’s 2023 league year when the New Orleans Saints signed former Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to a four-year, $150 million contract with $100 million guaranteed.
This was actually a great move by New Orleans, not because Carr is a fantastic quarterback but he’s certainly better than Jameis Winston, and he instantly becomes the best quarterback in a weak NFC South.
There weren’t a ton of other, or better options out there. The argument is valid that Carr hasn’t won a playoff game, and he also couldn’t win with Davante Adams, but in reality, Carr has had six head coaches in his nine-year tenure. and three in his last two years. His first three years with the same head coach, he appeared in three pro bowls (2015-2017)…
…and guess which team the coach that drafted him (Dennis Allen) is with now — yep, you guessed it, the New Orleans Saints.
Can Carr be the quarterback he was drafted to be? A few things need to happen for that to manifest, so let’s dive into his current situation and what has to happen for him to turn his career around.
Supporting cast/Old bonds will never break
One huge factor that comes into play is Dennis Allen. The coach that drafted Carr to the Raiders is now with the Saints. He knows and understands the type of player Carr is; this could have been a huge reason why Carr even chose the Saints; to reunite with his head coach.
When looking at the Saints last year, they were rattled with injuries and still somehow came away with seven wins. They had three starting quarterbacks, Jarvis Landry appeared in only nine games, and Michael Thomas appeared in only three.
Even though Carr and Davante Adams didn’t take the Raiders to the Super Bowl last year, the season wasn’t a complete failure. Adams ended the 2022 season with the third highest receiving yards, third most rushing/receiving touchdowns and the fifth most receiving yards per game.
They were able to achieve some success because Adams could separate.
You know who else can separate? Chris Olave. Mostly because of the amount of cushion defenses give him.
This tells us that with this amount of cushion Olave sees, their offense can get open with slants underneath, and when going deep, he can get down field untouched.
This is what their connection may look like:
Can’t wait to see the Derek Carr to Chris Olave connection this season 🙌 pic.twitter.com/khuGCQwqIF
— Chris Olave Stan (@WhoDatContent) March 7, 2023
Expect those underneath throws to the be the bread and butter. Back in Carr’s early years Allen, they averaged 5.5 yards per attempt. Since then, (his last year with Allen) Carr has averaged 7.3 yards per attempt.
The New Orleans Saints last year averaged a similar number to Carr’s early days, 5.6 yards per play. Carr will be getting back to his roots running a quick passing style offense that can also push the ball down field when needed.
Here are Carr’s stats from last year when looking at passing depth. His highest completion percentage is throwing between 0-9 yards:
Last season, the Saints has 26 catches of 25+ yards or more, which was 23rd in the league. They had 103 attempts down field of 15+ yards, which was 18th most in the league. They don’t do it often.
But when throwing up to five yards passed the line of scrimmage the Saints were ranked ninth in points earned, with 27.92. They also had the eighth highest quarterback rating when throwing the ball seven yards or less down field.
Their offense relied on yards after the catch and didn’t go deep as much as they should have. Maybe they didn’t have a healthy enough quarterback to do it!
Play-action pass.
Among quarterbacks who had a minimum of 80 play-action passes, Carr had the 12th highest completion percentage (67.6%) with the sixth-highest pressure rating, 40.2%. But the Raiders only put Carr in play action passing 112 times, which was 19th-most in the league.
When running the play-action pass, Carr went 71-for-105 for 851 yards and six touchdowns, and five of those touchdowns were to Adams.
In week 11 against the Denver Broncos, Carr threw two touchdowns to Adams, and both of them come from a play action pass.
Here was the first one:
Play-action bootleg is a specific type of offense where Carr can get outside the pocket, get some time to process the field and make accurate throws down field when moving away from pressure.
- Feet planted (min.100 att): 221/365 for 2703 yards 18 touchdowns 13 Interceptions 60.5% completion percentage 85.0 QB Rating (29th)
- Feet moving/shuffling (min.100 att): 84/136 for 819 yards, six touchdowns, one interception, 107.9 IQR and 90.3 QB rating (4th)
Carr is also more consistent when he’s comfortable behind an offensive line he can trust. Last year, when Carr felt pressure and he stepped up in the pocket then got happy feet and then that resulted in inaccurate passes down field. In the clip below, his pocket collapses and he steps up a little too far leading to an interception.
According to PFF, the Raiders have the 26th ranked offensive line in efficiency. We should see a more accurate and comfortable Carr with the Saints, who are 12th in offensive line efficiency.
Derek Carr was the right move for the Saints.
Carr may not take the Saints to the Super Bowl, but he has a better chance succeeding in New Orleans than he did in Las Vegas.
He will have Olave, Thomas, Landry, Kamara, a better offensive line and one important factor that we haven’t mentioned, a better defense. Carr hasn’t ever played with a top 20 defense in his entire nine seasons in the NFL!
I came across this fantastic chart posted by u/JPAnalyst on reddit, showing how much worse the Raiders defense is compared to the Saints; since Carr entered the league in 2014.
Carr has a record of 18-12 when the Raiders allowed 20 or less points on defense. Putting it into context, this means that this only happened 30 times in his nine seasons!
All I’m saying is that Carr finally has a chance to prove that he is not a byproduct of a mediocre team. Can he remove himself from the stigma that he received from unfulfilled career that he had on a team with a recent historically bad roster? We will soon find out.
Can he take the Saints to the next level? In short answer yes. He won’t be the sole reason why, but they can win with him.
The Saints certainly got the best quarterback in free agency, so there’s that!
