Yikes. Derek Carr has a lot of work to do in changing his reputation around the NFL — he’s consistently landing in the 20’s with analysts ranking the league’s starting quarterbacks after the 2024 draft. The New Orleans Saints starter didn’t exactly impress many viewers in his first season with the team.
He didn’t impress the Saints, either, which is why they completely overhauled the coaching staff supporting him. Klint Kubiak has replaced Pete Carmichael as offensive coordinator with Andrew Janocko taking over as the quarterbacks coach while other positions were flipped, too. But all of that support doesn’t mean much if Carr doesn’t show improvement. It’s on him to play better.
And he may just be who he is at this stage in his career. That’s the thesis coming from Pro Football Focus analyst Trevor Sikkema, who ranked Carr 21st among the NFL’s 32 starting quarterbacks. Here’s his explanation:
What you see is what you get from Derek Carr at this point. His PFF passing grade has finished between 77.5 and 83.5 in four of the past five seasons. Now, I want to be clear, he is more good than bad. His turnover-worthy play rate has never been above 3.3% over that span, and his big-time throw percentage has been as high as 6.7%. But it has long felt like Carr leaves too many plays out on the field.
In 2023, Carr passed for 25 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, but he recorded 17 big-time throws to 14 turnover-worthy plays, a much closer ratio. He remains a frustrating player to watch due to the dichotomy of what he’s capable of versus what he puts on tape.
This put Carr 12th among the 16 quarterbacks in his conference, which isn’t ideal. It’s a steep fall-off after he was ranked higher last offseason. This time last year PFF slotted him at No. 14 overall and fifth-best in the NFC, alongside passers like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, and Jared Goff. That sentiment was shared by other offseason quarterback rankings at The Athletic (No. 14) and ESPN (No. 16), as well as NFL Network’s morning shows. He didn’t meet those expectations. Carr averaged the second-fewest passing yards per game in his career last season, so he isn’t seen as someone who can carry an offense these days.
The Saints are betting everything on Kubiak helping to change that narrative. Putting Carr in a better position to succeed with a more creative offensive scheme isn’t the worst plan. But New Orleans is stuck with Carr whether he improves or doesn’t. Trying a different approach with a new play caller is their best (and only) move.
