Derek Carr will be the first major domino to topple in NFL free agency in 2023. He chose poorly.
The veteran quarterback, a man in desperate need of playoff success to boost a resume that reads as good but never great, will reportedly join the New Orleans Saints after being released by the Raiders. After nine seasons, four Pro Bowl invitations and zero playoff wins in Oakland and Las Vegas, he’s set to join a rudderless franchise in the midst of an arduous rebuild.
It’s certainly a decision.
Carr will join a New Orleans team that has spent the bulk of the early offseason converting salaries into signing bonuses in hopes of clearing spending room but still remains an estimated $17 million over next fall’s $224.8 million salary cap.
Who dat ⚜️ pic.twitter.com/DIY8gBGuGu
— Derek Carr (@derekcarrqb) March 6, 2023
Carr chose a roster that has wide receiver Chris Olave (good!), a winnable division (the woeful NFC South, last won by the 8-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and a powerful but aging defense. The Saints wandered through the wasteland of the South last season and finished 7-10, recording one win over a playoff team (a Jalen Hurts-less Eagles) and shutting out Carr’s similarly depressing Raiders. This was not a case of injuries and bad luck keeping a good team out of the playoffs. New Orleans was thoroughly forgettable, barring a few glorious Andy Dalton pick-sixes.
this camera angle is absolute poetry pic.twitter.com/BuDZXLC1eA
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 21, 2022
New head coach Dennis Allen failed to fill his mentor Sean Payton’s shoes in his first year at the helm. The run offense that once buoyed Drew Brees ranked 24th in overall efficiency and 22nd in yards per carry. Alvin Kamara, once a sigil of versatility in Payton’s offense, has nearly 1,700 career touches on his odometer, averaged only 3.9 yards per carry the last two seasons and was recently charged with battery stemming from a 2022 incident in Las Vegas.
The blocking that carried Carr to MVP candidacy early in his career won’t be present in New Orleans. The Saints ranked four spots behind a thoroughly average Raiders team in 2022.
Final Official Pass Protection Rankings as measured by three independent data sources
— 3 teams lapping the field (GB, PHI, BAL)
— MIA/CIN ended up being somewhat disappointing given their investments in OL pic.twitter.com/KdWJddivjc— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 10, 2023
The defense that ranked in the top five when it came to points allowed to close out the Brees era is also slipping. The Saints ranked second in overall defensive DVOA in 2020 and third in 2021, carrying a team with a limited passing offense to a combined 21-12 record even with no discernible downfield attack in 2020 (Brees’ final season) and a smorgasbord of garbage quarterbacks (Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, Ian Book!) in 2021.
That unit fell to eighth in 2022 and there’s reason to believe more slippage is coming. Cameron Jordan turns 34 years old in July. Pro Bowler Demario Davis will be 35 next January. Tyrann Mathieu celebrates his 31st birthday in May. Other contributors like David Onyemata, Kaden Elliss and Marcus Davenport are pending free agents and, as previously mentioned, the Saints currently have no cap space and will venture deeper into the red based on the terms of Carr’s deal. General manager Mickey Loomis will remedy this by adding ethereal void years to current deals, a short-term solution that serves to help choke future cap space as well.
We know Carr had other options. The New York Jets very publicly courted him, going as far to call him a future Hall of Famer (if he’d come to north Jersey). He took meetings with New York and New Orleans and the Carolina Panthers during this year’s Scouting Combine. The Jets, who were also 7-10 in 2022, could have offered:
- WR Garrett Wilson (1,103 receiving yards, 2022 offensive rookie of the year candidate)
- WR Elijah Moore (capable of big things once Zach Wilson is no longer skipping passes in his direction)
- WR Corey Davis (could be a cap casualty but is still only 28 years old)
- RB Breece Hall (5.8 yards per carry, 681 yards from scrimmage in six-plus games, likely rookie of the year had he not torn his ACL)
- an admittedly below-average offensive line and tight end situation
- the 13th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to help remedy that concern.
Instead, he opted for the Saints and:
- WR Chris Olave (1,042 receiving yards in a great rookie campaign)
- TE Juwan Johnson (completely fine)
- RB Alvin Kamara (degrading quickly and potentially facing league discipline)
- WR Rashid Shaheed (an undrafted wild card with legit deep ball potential)
- the desiccated husk of Michael Thomas, if he’s not released
- the issues already discussed above
- the 29th pick in the 2023 Draft thanks to the Denver Broncos in exchange for the chance to hire Sean Payton.
The Jets made a lot more sense and publicly wanted Carr. They had a roster capable of pushing Zach Wilson (Zach Wilson!) to a 5-4 record as a starter. They consistently looked like a team one stable quarterback away from being a real threat to the rest of the AFC.
Did New York privately tell him no in hopes of swinging a trade for Aaron Rodgers? Or did the veteran quarterback look at New Orleans, look at the roster and its extremely limited avenues for improvement, and opt to play another NFL season on the video game equivalent of hard mode?
Either way, New Orleans appeared to be the third place team in the race for Carr but somehow elbowed its way to the front of the pack. He’ll inherit low expectations and know all he has to do to be the team’s best quarterback in the 2020s is outplay late-stage Brees, Winston and Andy Dalton. He will be, as he has often been, mostly decent and occasionally very good for a team to whom most people won’t pay attention. If needed, he’ll be a warm body for the Pro Bowl.
But playing for the Saints isn’t likely to change Carr’s legacy. He could win a playoff game there — the first of his career — but if that mattered he would have taken better odds by joining the Jets or even the Panthers. Instead he’ll be perfectly fine for New Orleans and yet another team that hovers at the fringes of a Wild Card spot and threatens no one.
That’s Carr’s comfort zone. That’s what the Saints could offer.
Update: The terms of the deal are in. The Saints offered $100 million in guarantees over four years.
The #Saints & Derek Carr agreed on a 4-yr deal for $150M with $100M in total guarantees, per me & @MikeGarafolo. He gets $70M effectively fully guaranteed ($60M at signing, another $10M in Year 3 vesting after Year 1). Carr structures his deal to accommodate Saints’ cap issues. pic.twitter.com/vs6qaBh7rg
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 6, 2023
Honestly, a pretty compelling argument in favor of New Orleans.
