A potential by-election following Peter Bone’s suspension is likely to be “challenging” for the Conservatives, the Deputy Prime Minister has admitted.
But Oliver Dowden denied that the Tories were admitting defeat in a contest where they would be defending a majority of 18,500.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, asked on Thursday about the prospect of a new electoral test, said by-elections were “always difficult for incumbent governments”.
The Commons on Wednesday approved a six-week suspension for Mr Bone, the MP for Wellingborough, after an independent investigation upheld counts of bullying and sexual misconduct against him relating to a staff member.
A recall petition will be held which will trigger a by-election if signed by 10% of voters in his Northamptonshire constituency.
There is a suggestion that Mr Bone, who was stripped of the Tory whip after a report into his conduct was made public, was out campaigning with party activists on the day MPs ratified his suspension.
A tweet from Helen Harrison, a Conservative councillor on North Northamptonshire Council, tweeted a picture of herself with the veteran MP, saying it was “lovely to be out” with Mr Bone leafleting for a local candidate.
The Conservative Party has been approached for comment.
Mr Bone has held Wellingborough for the Conservatives since 2005 and the five-figure majority he secured at the last general election is smaller than the majorities the Tories had held in both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire in 2019.
Both fell to Labour in by-elections last week, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party recording a 22 point swing towards it in the Tamworth victory.
Mr Dowden, asked whether the Tories were concerned about the prospect of another by-election, told Sky News: “We are not in a situation right now that there is going to be a by-election.
Any by-election for a government that has been in power for 13 years is always going to be challenging— Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden
“That is up to the people of Peter Bone’s constituency, and of course any by-election for a government that has been in power for 13 years is always going to be challenging.
“But if there is a by-election, and it is a very big ‘if’, then we will go out and make our case.”
Asked whether the Government thought it would be defeated, Mr Dowden replied: “No, I’m not saying we are going to lose it at all — I’m saying that we will go out there and make our case very robustly.
“I think if you look at what Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister said at party conference, I think he has set out a clear vision for where he wants to take the country and we will be very proud to make that case.”
In a later interview, he suggested by-election swings are rarely replicated at general elections.
The former Tory Party chairman told LBC he took by-election results and opinion polls with a “bit of a pinch of salt”, saying: “They are expressing people’s views on the government that has been in power for a period of time.
“When it comes to the general election, there is a choice. And there are only two people who can be prime minister — Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer, and I’m confident both in the vision Rishi Sunak set out and in the leadership he is capable of giving.”
He was asked whether recent by-election losses made him nervous about his 21,000 majority in his own Hertsmere constituency.
The Deputy Prime Minister replied: “You name a by-election swing that has taken place 18 months to a year before an election that has been replicated in that general election — you know that is not going to be the case.”
Mr Bone was found to have “committed many varied acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct” against a staff member in 2012 and 2013.
The MP said the allegations were “false and untrue” and “without foundation” last week, but he was kicked out of the Tory parliamentary party the next day.
Parliament’s Independent Expert Panel upheld an earlier investigation that found he broke the MPs’ code of conduct on four counts of bullying and one of sexual misconduct.
He “verbally belittled, ridiculed, abused and humiliated” the employee and “repeatedly physically struck and threw things” at him.
Mr Bone was found to have indecently exposed himself to the complainant in the bathroom of a hotel room during a work trip to Madrid.
He also imposed an “unwanted and humiliating ritual” on the man by forcing him to sit with his hands in his lap when the MP was unhappy with his work, the investigation found.
The complainant at the centre of the case has told the BBC it was a “horrid, brutal, dark experience that left me a broken shell of the young man I once was”.
Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle is seeking procedural advice after Tory former minister Liam Fox raised concerns of a possible contempt of Parliament caused by the BBC interview.
