Throughout the past months, numerous polls and studies have shown that Democrats' historical advantage among the Latino electorate has been eroding. And now major surveyor Gallup joined the fray with a new study claiming that it is actually at record lows.
The survey, published on Wednesday, shows that the total percentage of Latino adults who say they identify as Democrats or lean towards supporting the party was 47%, while 35% said they identified or leaned towards Republicans.
According to Gallup, this 12-point advantage for Democrats among Latino adults is a new historical low in its series of measurements, which dates back to 2011 when the surveyor started routinely interviewing in Spanish as well as English.
The historical figures show a steep decline in Democrats' advantage with this demographic. It started with a 26-point lead in 2011, always staying above 20 percentage points and even reaching a historical high of 36 in 2016, at the end of the second Obama administration.
The edge stayed high throughout Donald Trump's government and started plummeting in 2021, the first year of the Biden administration. It went from 31 percentage points to 17 in 2022 and then the current 12.
The survey highlights that, while much higher, support for Democrats among Black adults is also at historical lows, with their current 47-point lead being the smallest Gallup recorded in its polling, dating back to 1999.
"Most of the decline has been recent, with the net-Democratic ID for this group falling 19 points from a 66-point advantage in 2020. At that time, 77% of Black adults favored the Democrats and 11% the Republicans, so the 2023 findings represent an 11-point decrease in Democratic affiliation since 2020 and an eight-point increase in Republican affiliation," reads a passage of the Gallup's analysis.
Whites, in contrast, continue favoring Republicans: 54% said they identified or leaned towards that party, while 38% said so for Democrats. This trend has stayed mostly unchanged since 2010, when the difference started being over 10 percentage points.
Overall, Gallup said, young adults are showing the lowest level of support for Democrats since 2005. "By 2010, young adults were the only age category giving the Democrats an edge, and their Democratic orientation remained strong until it fell to just eight points in 2023, the slimmest since 2005," the survey found.
Moreover, adults aged 30 to 49 started leaning more towards Democrats between 2013 and 2018, but the figures have become more even ever since.
"Democrats haven't had a double-digit advantage among 18- to 29-year-olds, and the first presidential election year since 2004 that they have been at a deficit among 30- to 49-year-olds. Meanwhile, for the fourth consecutive year, adults aged 50 to 64 are the least Democratic, leaning Republican by 10 points," Gallup concluded.
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