About 57 percent of Delhi’s voters turned out to exercise their franchise today. While results are still three days away, muted celebrations seem to have started as exit polls predicted a clean sweep for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Now, if you’re perplexed that exit polls still take place, we can’t blame you. They’re rarely right. So, while reader caution is advised, here’s how predictions stand ahead of results day on February 8.
First, some context: Delhi’s assembly has 70 seats. A simple majority is 36 seats. The competition is chiefly between the BJP, Aam Aadmi Party, and the Congress. The AAP wants to return for a third term, the BJP governed Delhi’s assembly only once starting 1993, and the Congress had three consecutive terms from 1998 to 2013 before it completely lost the plot.
This time around, both the AAP and Congress have fielded 70 candidates each (the INDIA alliance holds no water here) while the BJP has fielded 68. For a quick refresher on where each party stands, check out our coverage here. (And if you like what you see, power our work here.)
On to the exit polls.
Out of 10 exit polls listed below, seven gave the BJP a simple majority (we’re not counting Matrize that predicted between 35 and 40 seats to the BJP). Only two – Mind Brink and WeePreside– tipped in favour of the AAP getting a simple majority. And the best performance predicted by the Congress is a forlorn 2-3 seats.
Chanakya Strategies predicted 39-44 seats to the BJP, 25-28 to the AAP, and 2-3 to the Congress.
DV Research predicted 36-44 to the BJP, 26-34 to the AAP, and none at all to the Congress.
P-Marq predicted 39-49 to the BJP, 21-31 to the AAP, and 0-1 to the Congress.
People’s Insight gave a whopping 40-44 to the BJP, 25-29 to the AAP, and 0-2 to the Congress.
Matrize gave 35-40 to the BJP, 32-37 to the AAP, and 0-1 to the Congress.
JVC predicted 39-45 to the BJP, 22-31 to the AAP, and 0-2 to the Congress.
Poll Diary suggested 42-50 to the BJP, 18-25 to the AAP, and 02- to the Congress.
People’s Pulse predicted 51-60 to the BJP, 10-19 to the AAP, and 0 to the Congress.
Mind Brink predicted 21-25 to the BJP, 44-49 to the AAP, and 0-1 to the Congress.
WeePreside predicted 18-23 to the BJP, 46-52 to the AAP, and 1 to the Congress.
Most predictions – Matrize, P-Marq, Poll Diary, People’s Pulse – gave the BJP a vote share of above around 45 percent.
Interestingly, Axis My India, whose head Pradeep Gupta was scheduled to appear consecutively on no less than 11 news channels tonight, had not announced its exit poll at the time of publishing. Today’s Chanakya tweeted saying its exit poll will release tomorrow. Also missing was an exit poll by C Voter.
Again, let’s emphasise that exit polls are temperamental beasts. And in Delhi, they’ve previously underestimated the AAP’s performance such as during the 2013 assembly polls when they predicted 17 seats while the party eventually won 28. In 2015 too the party got a landslide victory with 67 seats though it was predicted to win just 45.
Still, it’s good to keep these numbers in mind as we prepare for results day. And since we’ve covered you through the polls with our reportage, we’re covering you on February 8 too. Join us for a live decoding of the results as they appear, with Manisha Pande, Atul Chaurasia and our determined team of reporters. Set your clocks for 12.30 pm on February 8 and join us on our YouTube channel.
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