For a man staring down years in prison and who claimed he was fighting a weaponised justice system aimed at keeping him from returning to the White House, Donald Trump has many reasons to celebrate.
Trump, who for years has fought legal woes on numerous fronts, has repeatedly won battles in criminal and civil proceedings that have insulated him from their potential consequences for the foreseeable future.
His lawyers’ strategy – delay, delay, delay through appeal after appeal – has meant that Trump can barrel toward election day without facing practical and political obstacles that would derail any normal candidate.
Many had expected Trump to spend much of 2024 in a series of courtrooms – instead he has campaigned across the country in rally after rally.
Yes, Trump was found guilty of 34 counts in his Manhattan hush-money trial, a felony charge carrying four years behind bars as the maximum sentence. And yes, Trump is facing charges in Washington DC federal court over his alleged attempts to subvert the 2020 election, as well as election meddling charges in Georgia.
But Judge Juan Merchan postponed sentencing in the hush-money case until 26 November “to avoid any appearance – however unwarranted – that the proceeding has been affected by or seeks to affect the approaching presidential election in which the Defendant is a candidate”. Merchan also won’t issue his immunity decision until 12 November.
It’s also unclear whether the public will see any of potentially bombshell evidence in special counsel Jack Smith’s January 6 attack on the Capitol case before election day. Documents containing a “substantial amount of sensitive material” were filed under seal last Thursday, but judge Tanya Chutkan has discretion over their release.
The Georgia election interference case is on hold pending an appeal, and Smith is fighting to revive the Florida classified documents proceeding after its dismissal in July. The hundreds of millions in financial penalties Trump faces for civil fraud and defamation are also on hold pending appeals.
Politicos on both sides of the aisle told the Guardian that Trump’s legal problems probably now won’t sway swing voters one way or another unless something watershed happens before 5 November.
“It’s become a battle of personalities between the former president and the vice-president,” said longtime Democrat strategist Hank Sheinkopf, and Trump has “cleverly” shifted discourse to the problems he attributes to Democrat rival Kamala Harris, such as US border security.
“He’s trying to make her culpable, rather than her having the opportunity to make him culpable for what he’s been convicted of in the criminal proceedings and what he’s liable for.”
Without something decisive happening – such as a sentencing – it’s not something Democrats can lean on all that much. “A campaign is determined by what’s on the air, right? There’s no commercials to talk about [this] because it hasn’t happened yet,” he said.
“I think people’s opinions of Donald Trump and his legal troubles are already baked in. No one thinks he’s a choir boy, but most Americans see these lawsuits as frivolous and politically motivated,” said Republican strategist TW Arrighi.
“This election is going to come down to a small number of people in a handful of states who don’t like Trump’s personality but really dislike Harris’s litany of far-left policy positions that she’s currently trying to run away from,” he said. “They thought their lives were better in the Trump years but hated the noise, yet they are afraid Harris will move the country too far to the left and make things worse, especially when it comes to immigration and the economy.
“Whichever one holds more weight in these swing voters’ minds when they enter the voting booth will dictate how they vote.”
New York state Conservative party chair Gerard Kassar, who attended court one day to support Trump in his Manhattan case, said legal proceedings against can cut both ways.
“I think these legal actions cause certain people who had issues with him to dig in more,” Kassar said, but he also thinks “that certain people that were more in the neutral area began to feel [or] concluded this was an overreach of the federal law enforcement authorities for purpose affecting the outcome”.
Longtime attorneys expressed skepticism that Trump would face any meaningful consequences, at least anytime soon. The delay tactics have worked.
“I fully expect him to be sentenced to probation if Harris wins, or for the case to be dismissed, potentially, if he wins,” said Neama Rahmani, president of West Coast Trial Lawyers and a former federal prosecutor.
“Trump’s legal team has done a masterful job delaying and going on the offense –litigating and appealing everything,” Rahmani said. “His delay is his best defense.”
“I’m not saying that’s a just result and a fair outcome, but if you’e looking at the lawyering and the effectiveness of it – imagine a coach of a football or basketball team winning even though they have inferior talents.”
Ron Kuby, a veteran criminal defense attorney with a focus on civil rights, said that the delay strategy didn’t achieve all its goals in Trump’s New York state case, but were effective.
“He did get convicted of 34 felonies in a trial that began pretty much when it was scheduled, so that didn’t work,” Kuby said. “Sentencing will be delayed until after the election, but even if the judge gives him jail time, thanks to New York’s liberal bail laws – which Trump apparently now supports – there’s no possibility that he would be going to prison until all of his appeals are exhausted.”
Kuby noted that delays were in no way uncommon and that effective defense attorneys aggressively seek them.
“One mistake is to think there was some sort of deadline the legal system had imposed. There wasn’t,” he said. “There were a lot of people who wanted this resolved one way or the other prior to the election, but that’s a political deadline not a legal one and defense attorneys, when you have a client who’s not in jail awaiting trial, obstruct and delay are your best friends.”
“Good defense lawyers have great expertise in delaying. My clients have to be dragged, kicking and screaming, to trial,” Kuby continued, adding, “every day your client is out of jail and not in front of a jury is a day in which they are presumed to be innocent.”
“Legally, he’s been partially successful,” Kuby said. “Politically, he’s been completely successful.”
