A planned refresh of the government’s integrated review of defence and foreign policy is at risk of being delayed until after the budget in mid-March amid a row over funding and a lack of clarity over its aims.
It had been expected that the fresh look at Britain’s geopolitical strategy, originally announced by Liz Truss and inherited by Rishi Sunak, would be released on 7 March – more than a week before the 15 March annual financial statement.
Although the original integrated review was published as recently as 2021, the war in Ukraine has upended traditional military and diplomatic assumptions, reinforcing Russia’s status as a chronic threat and demonstrating a need for emergency investment, partly to replace equipment given to Kyiv.
A report on Wednesday by Politico suggested that the document could be delayed into late March amid complaints that the submissions from the military were unimaginative, at a time when Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, is seeking an extra £8bn to £11bn in funding from the Treasury over the next two years.
Neither Downing Street nor the Ministry of Defence would deny that the publication of the refresh had been set back; instead both said the overall aim of publishing the report in the early part of the year was unchanged.
“The Integrated Review Refresh is on track to be published in the spring as planned,” No10 said on Thursday, while defence sources emphasised that “no date [for publication] has ever been confirmed”.
On Thursday, Wallace publicly indicated he wanted more money from the Treasury, despite criticism that key contracts have been delayed, such as the new Ajax armoured vehicle, which is five years behind schedule. “85% of our contracts are on time and on budget,” the minister said.
“When I say, look, I would like some more funding, whether now or the next comprehensive spending review in two years’ time, you’re dealing with someone who … this year, for the third time, delivered a balanced budget,” Wallace added.
This year, however, an extra £3.7bn was quietly added to the defence capital budget by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, during the November autumn statement, to plug a gap caused by the costs of the war, rising inflation and other factors.
The minister also hit back at veterans minister Johnny Mercer, who had a day earlier said “it is obviously not credible to say that the money has been taken out of defence”, because of a previously announced increase of £24bn over four years, dating back to when Boris Johnson was prime minister.
In reply, Wallace said: “Johnny is a junior minister. And Johnny luckily doesn’t have to run the budget. I have a defence budget that has to deal, like all the other budgets, with inflation, with changes to threat, and I have to just deal with that. And that’s my job.”
Defence reviews are normally closely linked to budget settlements, because the cost of running Britain’s armed forces is such that service heads want clarity as to how much they can in theory spend to meet political goals.
The army is particularly unhappy that it has borne the brunt of helping Ukraine, while there have been relatively little demands made of the navy and air force. In January, when the government announced it would supply 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of the army, warned: “Giving away these capabilities will leave us temporarily weaker as an army, there is no denying it.”
Johnson’s £24bn four-year uplift was announced in November 2020, four months before the integrated review itself was announced. Its key points were to lift the cap on nuclear warheads and an “Indo-Pacific tilt” in which the UK deepens ties with India, Japan, South Korea and Australia in opposition to China.
However, this cash uplift was rapidly eroded by high inflation and the need to plug black holes in capital spending.
