As Mikel Arteta prepares a plan to get around Declan Rice this weekend, he is also preparing a plan to include him next season. The Arsenal manager has already started thinking about the evolution of his team, and the club are currently seen as the likeliest to secure Rice’s signature if he does move.
There have already been back-channel overtures and personal terms are seen as easy to sort. West Ham United are not even getting into a discussion about a sale right now, though, and that’s where the real difficulties will be.
The relegation-threatened club would want at least £100m for Rice, and the possibility of him staying obviously hasn’t been discounted. That position will only be strengthened if West Ham stay up, which makes Arsenal’s visit on Sunday so important to the future for a lot of figures. A home victory would put David Moyes’ side on the brink of survival, such is the congestion in that half of the table. Any win, especially after last week’s victory, now has a disproportionate effect. The flip side is that another defeat might put them right back in it.
For Arsenal, though, we’re also at that point where such games are must-wins. The 2-2 draw away to Liverpool last week means they have lost breathing space, especially with trips to Manchester City and Newcastle United to come. They can't afford to slip up against the bottom half.
A fixture that would otherwise look forgiving could instead become punitive, especially on the nerves. That means it could also become one of those games where you really appreciate the abilities of an opposing player.
This used to be why Sir Alex Ferguson signed a fair few players who performed well against Manchester United. The view of a player is never so acute as when they are doing you damage. That’s when you realise how good they really are. If it gets to the point where Arsenal are desperate for a winning goal or equaliser, any of those robust Rice challenges will stand out all the more. The “scanning” that stands out in his game will be frustrating. There are then those drives forward.
Rice, for his part, has realised it is probably time to move forward with his career – even if that isn’t completely certain. He likes Moyes on a personal level and has generally enjoyed his management, but there has naturally been frustration at how the club have gone backwards. West Ham aren’t always the most progressive in attack, either. Many of Rice’s best friends in football – and particularly those from the England squad – are meanwhile all at elite clubs. The discussions in those meets naturally have an effect. He is the one nowhere near the top end.
Rice is meanwhile said to be a particular admirer of how Arsenal play, seeing that as one of the best approaches in European football right now. He has raved about them while watching them with the rest of the West Ham squad. That would make any signing all the more ideal, especially as opportunities are limited elsewhere.
Chelsea have long had the strongest interest in Rice and, while the signing of Enzo Fernandez has lessened that, Arsenal are conscious of how their London rivals beat them to Mykhailo Mudryk. It brought some frustrated comments from senior figures about how Chelsea are getting involved in everyone’s business, even though Leandro Trossard has worked out much better. That is another element with Rice potentially going to north London, though. There is more space for him.
Manchester United no longer have that same need, and are prioritising a No 9 in a summer where they are expected to have a limited budget unless there is a full sale. Manchester City have moved on. Liverpool can’t afford Rice at that price.
There is also the view that Rice is only worth that much in the English market, because he is so rare a player in that midfield role from the country. Jude Bellingham, by contrast, is seen as worth well over £100m in any market.
That wouldn’t deter Arsenal because a clear lesson of modern football – and especially this season with Brighton and Chelsea – is how a player’s value is hugely dependent on whether there is a system that fits him. Arteta here has a clear plan for such a player. The Arsenal manager wants to bring the side to another level anyway, and oversee an evolution in their attack in the way Pep Guardiola constantly does season on season.
Arteta will not seek to attack or build up play in exactly the same way as he has done in this campaign, and he has one vision for the team where Rice’s abilities – especially his capacity for suddenly surging forward – can be a key part of that. He is also the sort of personality that Arsenal want.
That just might be to their detriment this weekend. The leaders need a win and, to do that, they will need to evade Rice.
It’s a big game for the future, for a significant number of reasons.
West Ham vs Arsenal, Sunday 16 April at 3pm on Sky Sports
