The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) trumped the Congress in all the three States where the two were in a face-to-face fight, wresting control of both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and retaining power in Madhya Pradesh. A remarkable revival in Telangana that pushed the BJP to the third place was the only consolation for the Congress. The BJP’s victories signify a consolidation of its hold over the Hindi heartland and in straight contests against its principal national opponent. The Congress had won all three States five years ago, though it lost Madhya Pradesh midway through its term to politically opportunistic mass defections. True, the Congress’s consolation prize in Telangana is remarkable, beating back a regional party that had sought to become synonymous with the struggle for Statehood. But to regain support in the Hindi-speaking States in time for the Lok Sabha election next year seems an uphill struggle for the party. The overall electoral map now suggests a divergence between the BJP strongholds in the north and the west, and peninsular India where non-BJP parties are in power. But the party’s performance in Telangana where it won eight seats compared to just one last time is notable. The setback to the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana is not ordinary anti-incumbency, but a pointed rejection of its dynastic reign devoid of any ideological content. The BJP campaign had pivoted around Prime Minister Narendra Modi, relegating its regional leaders, including sitting Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh, to the background. This was a highly risky strategy, considering the party’s defeat in Karnataka in May after it antagonised regional satraps and caste groups. In the end, the party won 115 out of 199 (one yet to be held) seats in Rajasthan, 164 of 230 in Madhya Pradesh, and 54 of 90 in Chhattisgarh.
These decisive numbers give the BJP central leadership the latitude to have its way in government formation in all three States. The lion’s share of the credit for the victories belongs to Mr. Modi, reinforcing his authority ahead of 2024 when he will be seeking a third straight term. Mr. Chouhan chose not to raise his profile in the campaign, allowing the central leadership to take full responsibility in Madhya Pradesh, just as in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot fought a spirited battle, and though he lost, prevented a complete washout of the Congress. In Chhattisgarh, the party collapsed in the storm of allegations of corruption and under the weight of botched social engineering that isolated the tribal communities. All three heartland States have exposed many a chink in the Congress armour, particularly its two prongs of social justice and welfare schemes. These are essential but not sufficient tools for victory. Trust in leadership, representation of social groups, astute selection of candidates, effective campaigning, ideological clarity and, above all, organisational cohesion are required, especially to retain power.
Calling for a more representative political and social order is one thing, but turning that into an obsessive call for a caste census is quite another. Rahul Gandhi’s campaign for a caste-based census, if at all it had any electoral impact, was not a differentiator in these elections. In combination with other factors that worked against the Congress and for the BJP, it had little traction. The BJP’s Hindutva politics continued to resonate better across caste groups in the heartland. The BJP’s campaigning was laced with communal propaganda, and had a more effective outreach to subaltern segments. Caste politics as a counter to communalism is hardly inspiring. The BJP, by denying a ticket to Yunus Khan, its lone Muslim MLA in Rajasthan, removed the last traces of religious inclusivity from its benches. The BJP and the Congress appealed to women, tribal communities, and youth through mixes of welfare schemes. The BJP had more takers as the results show — the possible differentiators for it being leadership and the strong tailwind of Hindu identity politics. Mr. Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and the party’s nominal nod to non-dynastic politics in the election of Mallikarjun Kharge as president had some resonance in Telangana where the ruling BRS relied heavily on Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao’s family, but against the BJP in the heartland, these were not adequate.
The Congress got a lot right in Telangana though, where its strategy mirrored the successful playbook in Karnataka. It managed to assemble one dominant caste, Other Backward Classes, Dalits and the religious minorities behind it. The Congress call to reject the BRS’s Dorala (feudal) Telangana and embrace Prajala Telangana (the rule of the people) was received well by the subaltern social groups that have felt the weight of feudalism and social discrimination. The party’s central leadership could harness the skillset of its State unit president Revanth Reddy, and the social appeal of Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka, a Dalit leader who went on a Statewide foot march, into a winning force. As for the BRS, its cleverness has hit a speed breaker. Unlike the Dravidian parties, the BRS has no ideological essence to sustain it without power. The BJP confused its own cadres in the run-up to the polls, but still won eight seats. The southern dreams of the BJP remain distant. By upstaging a regional party, the Congress has demonstrated a possibility. The Congress has regional parties as its main opponents in several States. The results give momentum and confidence to the BJP and Mr. Modi; the Congress and Mr. Gandhi must go back to the drawing board before resuming their long yatra with greater ideological clarity.
