ORLANDO, Fla. — The lone debate in the Florida governor’s race could be Charlie Crist’s last real chance to pull ahead against Gov. Ron DeSantis, experts said, with polls continually giving DeSantis the lead. And Crist has to hit hard against an incumbent playing it safe, they added.
“DeSantis’ goal is to not hurt himself in any way,” said Mac Stipanovich, a Tallahassee consultant and former anti-Trump Republican-turned-independent. “His goal is to get out without making a mistake or getting mauled. Charlie’s goal is for DeSantis to make a mistake, and then maul him.”
The debate between Republican DeSantis and Crist, a former Democratic U.S. House member and GOP governor from 2007-11, is set for Monday night at 7 p.m. It will be hosted by WPEC-CBS12 at the Sunrise Theater in Fort Pierce. It will be aired live on 10 stations across the state, including WFTV-TV Channel 9 in Orlando.
The debate was originally set for Oct. 12 but was postponed because of Hurricane Ian’s aftermath.
DeSantis is in the same position Crist was in during the Democratic primary against Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried. Crist agreed to just one debate, and while Fried went on the attack it wasn’t enough as she went on to lose to Crist by 25 points.
“Ron DeSantis has a lead in polls, and so he’s just looking to maintain that lead,” said Gregory Koger, a professor of political science at the University of Miami. “And for him, that means not making a mistake. Preparing himself to answer questions, but not looking to go on the offensive, except to highlight Crist’s ever-evolving positions on issues as a Republican and now as a Democrat.”
He agreed that Crist has to go all out.
“Crist needs to shake up the race,” Koger said. “So he either provokes DeSantis into saying something sufficiently controversial that then becomes a major news story … or [provokes] him into saying something that can be meme-worthy and then generate enthusiasm from Democrats.”
Crist also will likely attack DeSantis on abortion, Koger said, which has become his cornerstone issue.
But DeSantis will also likely focus on his key issues.
“I would expect DeSantis to go to his strengths, which are cultural warrior issues,” said Stipanovich, including banning transgender athletes from girls’ sports, critical race theory and immigration. “All the old standbys that stoke fear, which he can exploit.”
But Stipanovich said he doesn’t think DeSantis will be the one to bring up the controversial migrant flights from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard, now under investigation from both local Texas law enforcement and the U.S. Treasury Department.
“I’m not too sure that the Martha’s Vineyard thing has worked that well for him,” he said. “He may not want to talk about those things.”
DeSantis almost certainly will bring up his handling of Hurricane Ian, which allowed him to tour the state offering aid to storm victims and even hold a peaceful meeting with President Biden.
“Crist is in a tough position, because it’s really, really difficult for him to criticize DeSantis on hurricane recovery,” said Brad Coker, director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. “DeSantis can tout everything he can about what he’s done during the recovery effort.”
A governor getting a boost after dealing with a hurricane isn’t guaranteed, Coker said, with Gov. Lawton Chiles criticized for a poor response after Hurricane Andrew in 1992. But since then, governors from Jeb Bush to Rick Scott to DeSantis — but not Crist, who did not oversee a major hurricane response during his term — made sure to be “always front and center and visible,” Coker said.
Crist hasn’t been afraid to go after DeSantis on the issue, however. In an interview with the Orlando Sentinel editorial board, he attacked DeSantis for ignoring climate change, which experts said contributed to Ian’s size and strength, and for doing “virtually nothing” on the property insurance crisis that will be worsened by the storm.
Koger said Ian could also provide Crist an opening to talk about federal funding, which has fueled much of the recovery effort but also DeSantis’ budget priorities.
“[It] provides an opportunity for Crist to give credit to the Biden administration for a lot of what has gone right in Florida over the last few years,” Koger said. “Florida benefited a great deal from COVID relief, including legislation that the Republicans opposed. And the more that Crist can claim credit for those things, for the Democratic Party, and for things DeSantis claims as his own legacy, that would help him.”
But despite the high stakes, it’s unclear whether the debate will actually affect the race, whether Crist lands any hits on DeSantis or not.
“Debates, on the one hand, are theater for the political faithful,” said Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida. “And those people have already made their choices.”
While there are some voters who could be swayed by a debate, McDonald said, “It’s probably a shrinking share of the electorate, given our polarization that we have in our politics. … Eventually, that debate performance gets smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror. And then people base their votes on more overall evaluations of the candidates.”
It’s not out of the question that the debate could alter the race, he said, though that’s happened more on the presidential level than in state races. If there is such a moment, though, it will probably be in one direction.
“A debate is all risk,” Stipanovich said of DeSantis. “There’s nothing to be gained.”
Crist “has nothing to lose,” he said.
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