Before the NFL draft later this month and the rookie class that comes with it, I feel it’s important to attune your mind to player values ahead of redraft season or by tweaking your dynasty rosters via trade—in the same way front offices and general managers prep their rosters around the league. Not only establishing an internal positional set of rankings, but also how your opinions are different from a sort of broader general consensus.
Buy & Sell: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
WR Buy
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
In 2020, Hopkins finished as the fourth-best fantasy receiver. He posted 115 catches on 160 targets for 1,407 yards and six touchdowns. At that point, in six of his last seven seasons, he had at least 1,165 yards. It was his sixth straight season with at least 150 targets.
Yet, Hopkins is the consensus WR15. What?
Yes, a torn MCL and the surgery along with it have to be a major concern. Yes, he will turn 30 and that’s a scary age for wide receivers. But this is still one of the best receivers of his generation playing on a team with Kyler Murray at the helm. If you think Murray is a top-four fantasy QB, which many fantasy analysts do, who’s he throwing the ball to? Only Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz? That and 100 dump-offs to James Conner? I don't think so—make it make sense!
Hopkins, wherever he ends up in your league, will likely be that team’s WR2 and he will likely slip into Round 3. So, a WR-heavy drafter could have Hopkins as his WR3! I'm not afraid of that kind of ceiling at all. I’ll wrap it up by saying if you’re fading D-Hop, you better not have Murray in your top-four fantasy QBs.
We’ve been here before, folks. Cooks, somehow, some way, in that Houston Texans offense last year, still managed to post 90 receptions on 134 targets for 1,037 yards and six touchdowns. Excluding his rookie year in which he only played 10 games, Cooks has finished outside the top-20 fantasy WRs just one time (2019, WR61).
Now, I will admit that I do not like Davis Mills. I do not like him, Sam-I-Am; I do not like Davis Mills and ham. I don’t like the running game. You look at the roster, the depth chart and you think to yourself, “How did this happen? Who's in charge here?”
The top running backs are Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead. The starting tight end is Pharaoh Brown. We’ll see how this changes, though, as the team does have two firsts (3 and 13), a second (37) and two thirds (68 and 80).
And still, this is the same team for which Cooks defied the odds and put together another quality year. The target volume will be key. He had seven games with at least 10 targets and eight games with at least six receptions. We don’t need him and he likely isn’t capable of monster total production games like Cooper Kupp and the other Tier 1 receivers. We need consistency and that’s tricky because this isn’t going to be a team that plays efficiently. We’re looking for the Texans to fall behind early to force the pass and Cooks to employ some garbage time heroics—and there’s no shame in that.
Cooks is the consensus WR23 and many fantasy analysts have him well outside the top 30. They do so at their own peril.
Note: I’d also include Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. as a WR buy for the same reasons explained in my “buy” write-up for Matt Ryan.
WR Sell
So the Bucs have Tom Brady (consensus QB14), Mike Evans (WR12) and Chris Godwin (WR18) and yet both of the Dolphins receivers are ranked higher? Tua Tagovailoa (QB18), Tyreek Hill (WR8) and Waddle (WR11) juxtaposed to the Bucs group makes me scratch my head. The way this could logically work is that Tags is less productive than Brady, but as a share of the offense, both Hill and Waddle get more targets, touches and production. Or perhaps, between Hill and Waddle, one doesn’t meet these preseason expectations, which allows the other to hit their ranking.
In isolation, I really like all three guys: Tagovailoa, Hill and Waddle. That said, something just isn’t right here. Hill is one of the most explosive players in the game and Waddle was already looking like an heir-apparent in ascension to that kind of recognition. Yet now on the same team, we’ve arrived at a point where we’re asking just a bit too much from this duo. I don’t mind getting Hill as the eighth receiver off the board, but Waddle as 11th WR feels like an under-correction of his ranking since Hill’s arrival.
Outside of Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, I will let the values fall to me where I’m looking to draft guys who are falling below their ADP. Waddle and Hill to a lesser extent are both players I would prefer to have fall in my lap, rather than reach out of my way to pursue them.
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Ahead of Week 7 last season, I wrote about Higgins being a dynasty buy because he had a rough start to the season and Ja’Marr Chase was the talk of the sport. Without checking your Higgins game log, you might assume that was an obvious take. Now if you look at his game log, you’d see a player who started well over his first two games (4/58/1, 6/60/1), then he missed two games and posted 5/32 and 3/44 in consecutive weeks heading into Week 7. And with Chase playing so well, Higgins began to slip in value. Through six games, Chase averaged about 19 PPR points per game.
Why are we recapping all this? Well Higgins through Week 11 had 56.6 PPR points, or about 7.1 ppg (eight games played). With all due respect to him, that’s not a stretch most top-15 receivers would endure. Higgins turned on a dime though and he caught fire, scoring 20.9 ppg over his last six, including a 12/194/2 monster performance in Week 16. In that game, Higgins scored 43.4 points, or about 19.8% of his final point total. Let that sink in … That would be like Josh Allen (417.7 points last year) scoring 83.5 points in one game or Jonathan Taylor (373.1) scoring 74.6.
All this to say we experienced a tale of two seasons with Higgins. Most receivers are inconsistent, have boom-or-bust tendencies and more specifically, most receivers who are the second wide receiver on their team come within the overall top-13 at their position. Higgins is consensus WR13 and Chase is the WR3.
Like the aforementioned Waddle, I just feel we’re asking a lot of Higgins as the team’s No. 2 receiver. I love Higgins this year, but not at this price point.
