The Islamic State (IS) threat on the US homeland has caused renewed concern as more details emerge about the man allegedly behind what the FBI is calling an “act of terrorism” in New Orleans on New Year’s Day that killed 14 and injured scores more.
US citizen and army veteran Shamsud-Din Jabbar, 42, was killed in the attack after driving into partygoers on Bourbon Street and engaging police in a gunfight. Found inside his rental truck was the infamous black flag of IS; it was later revealed he had pledged allegiance to the group in a series of videos posted to Facebook mere hours beforehand.
Though public perceptions of IS suggest it has now suddenly reappeared in the pantheon of terrorist organizations active in the US, top officials and analysts have been warning for months that a stateside attack was imminent.
“The attack was hardly unexpected – there had been flashing warning signs,” said Clara Broekaert, a research fellow at the Soufan Center who tracks the online activities of IS. “In recent months, we’ve witnessed an unrelenting stream of rhetoric calling for violence during the holiday season, along with repeated chatter about low-tech tactics, from knife attacks to vehicle rammings.”
Broekaert continued: “Given this, it’s no shock that an attack like this occurred.”
Both the outgoing FBI director, Christopher Wray, and the attorney general, Merrick Garland, called IS an ongoing and top national security concern in an October press release. In a rare public acknowledgment, the CIA director, Bill Burns, recently described IS as “resurgent”, a description now underscored by political chaos in Syria.
Since the summer, IS propaganda has steadily called for American targets to be “next” as a presidential election campaign rife with unprecedented political violence and assassination attempts bogged down law enforcement and intelligence attention.
On Rocket.Chat, the chosen encrypted communications platform of IS, supporters and recruiters mingled in the lead-up to the holiday season. One user left a YouTube link on carjacking with the message: “For the brothers interested in stealing a car and using it in the next attacks.”
“In 2024 alone, at least five plots linked to the Islamic State – both inspired and directed – have been thwarted within the United States,” said Broekaert, adding that the success of the New Orleans attack, which IS did not yet formally claim responsibility for, has already given an “immense” boost to the group’s efforts online.
Ahead of the November election, there was an uptick in IS activities. It began with a Canada-based Pakistani national who was stopped before allegedly carrying out a plot against a New York Jewish center. Then in October, the FBI arrested an Afghan man in Oklahoma who authorities say planned an election day mass shooting in support of IS. Around the same time, a Maryland man was arrested on suspicion of supporting IS and allegedly trying to buy a Kalashnikov assault rifle.
Already inside IS chatrooms, supporters were applauding the alleged work of Jabbar, calling it a textbook operation. Manuals and social media posts emanating from IS or its predecessor organization, al-Qaida, have long advised the use of car ramming attacks.
“Die in your rage America,” wrote one IS supporter, while another immediately asked for guidance on how to carry out their own, similar operation.
“Brothers, I need books on [martyrdom] attacks,” they wrote.
As far back as 2010, an al-Qaida magazine called on followers to use trucks, the “ultimate mowing machine”, for targeting Americans. Rental trucks and terrorist attacks notably have a long history. One example: the Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh got a U-Haul rental truck to detonate his bomb, rather than using a car registered under his name.
In celebration of the New Orleans attack, an online IS supporter celebrated Jabbar’s alleged skills in following the instructions of a car ramming attack.
“Ramming attack. Shooting attack,” they enthusiastically wrote. “If it’s a brother, he’s a legend.”
It is unclear if Jabbar was a bona fide IS operative or merely a follower who engaged with the terror group’s vast online archive. IS has prioritized inspiring disparate followers via recruitment literature spread in chatrooms or on apps like Telegram, calling on them to commit acts of terrorism that would otherwise risk their operatives and networks in hostile countries.
“Do you wish to participate in the blessed obligation of jihad in the way of Allah, yet lack any connection or endorsement [to IS]?” asked a recent piece of IS propaganda. “Do not despair, for now, you can strike at the enemies of Islam wherever you are and fulfill the blessed duty of jihad!
“Your pledge of allegiance to the Caliphate has been accepted; you are one of us, and we are one with you!”
Likewise, as one supporter on Rocket.Chat referred to Jabbar’s actions, heeding the calls of IS: “The point is to cause widespread fear.”
Now US law enforcement and intelligence officials face the difficult task of wading through the potential onslaught of copycats or would-be IS supporters who might try to replicate the same type of operation.
“IS poses threats in the form of directed operations, guided plots and inspiring followers to mobilize,” said Lucas Webber, a senior threat intelligence analyst at Tech Against Terrorism. “The organization and greater movement will look to leverage the attack for propaganda purposes and to build support.”
After the lethal IS attack on a Moscow theatre that killed 145 people in March, Webber said there was a surge in propaganda calling for the US to be next.
“IS, its branches and pro-IS propaganda outlets have continued to heavily focus on the United States as a leading enemy and top priority target,” he said. “Given IS’s evolving online guidance activities, it’s vital for governments to build open-source intelligence capabilities to identify and disrupt plots.”
Before the events in New Orleans, American authorities had been applauded for disrupting an IS plot against a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna and even for providing Russian intelligence officials, major geopolitical adversaries, with warnings about the eventual Moscow attack.
“US law enforcement and intelligence agencies have proven themselves highly effective in neutralizing IS threats both within the United States and abroad,” said Broekaert. “Yet, despite these impressive efforts, the truth remains: [IS] only have to be right once.”
