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France 24
France 24
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Deadly explosion in the Golan Heights: Tracing a rocket’s trajectory

An explosion on a football pitch in a Druze village in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights near the Lebanese border killed 12 people on July 27, 2024. © Observers

An explosion on a football pitch in a Druze village in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights near the Lebanese border killed 12 people on July 27, all of them children. This region has been the theatre of military conflict between Lebanon-based Hezbollah, a close ally of Hamas and Iran, and Israel since October 2023. While Hezbollah categorically denies any responsibility, our investigations indicate that the deadly explosion could have been caused by a “Falaq-1”, an Iranian-made rocket used by Hezbollah.

The images of the explosion are gruesome: several children were killed, some of them with severed limbs. According to multiple amateur videos, including footage from “ Magen David Adom”, the Israeli “Red Crescent”, the explosion occurred during a football match in Majdal Shams on July 27.

Majdal Shams is a village of 11,000 inhabitants, mainly Druze, located on the Golan Heights, a Syrian territory occupied by Israel since the 1967 Arab-Israeli War.

Dans cette vidéo prise par un habitant de Majdal Shams peu après la frappe, on peut voir des jeunes courir en tenue de football pour s'échapper du terrain. © Observateurs

In this video, recorded by an eyewitness on July 27 in Majdal Shams, young children in football jerseys can be seen running towards the explosion site.

Hezbollah is responsible, says Israel

The Israeli authorities have attributed the attack to Lebanese Hezbollah, a powerful militia predominantly composed of Lebanese Shiites. Hezbollah, which controls the south of Lebanon, has been in constant conflict with Israel since its founding in the 1980s. These conflicts have intensified since October 7, when Hamas led attacks on Israel that resulted in the deaths of more than 1,190 people, prompting Israel to launch a war against Hamas in Gaza. Until now, these conflicts have been limited to Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah members and reciprocal rocket, missile, and drone attacks by Hezbollah.

Israel has also published photos of rocket debris found at the explosion site in Majdal Shams. According to these images, the debris matches the Falaq-1, a known Iranian rocket used by Hezbollah. This rocket has a range of approximately 10 kilometres and carries a 50-kilogram warhead.

Image taken from the Israeli army report: The debris supposedly found in the impact zone at Majdal Shams (right) bears markings corresponding to what can be seen on a still-intact "Falaq-1" rocket (left). © Israeli army

It is impossible to independently verify that this debris was actually collected from the blast site, due to a lack of images other than the photo released by the Israeli Magen David Adom, taken less than an hour after the explosion, which shows the remains of a rocket that resembles the debris presented by the Israeli army.

In this photo, published less than an hour after the attack on the Facebook page of Magen David Adom, we can see debris in the crater that resembles the ammunition fragments shown in the Israeli army's report. © Observers

Despite the Israeli statement, Hezbollah denies any involvement in this explosion. Media close to Hezbollah claim, in a counterstatement, that the source of the explosion was a failed Israeli missile from the “Iron Dome” defence system, a missile system that Israel relies on to intercept any air attack on its territory by rockets, missiles, and drones. This version is spread by many Hezbollah supporters and some Arab media such as the Qatari “Al-Araby”.

The FRANCE24 Observers team examined the images of the attack to uncover what really happened in Majdal Shams on July 27.

What do the images of the blast show?

According to the published photos and videos of the explosion's aftermath, the projectile landed in the top right-hand corner of the village’s football pitch.

This photo posted some minutes after the explosion on Telegram channels shows the explosion's impact on the football field in Majdal Shams. © Observers

There are also two amateur videos that captured the seconds before and during the explosion.

The first video was recorded by a woman from her window in a house on a hill, 400 metres northwest of the football pitch. 

Cette première vidéo de l'attaque de Majdal Shams été filmée par une femme depuis sa maison, située sur une colline surplombant le village. © Observateurs

The second video was recorded by a man on a hilltop on the opposite side of the village of Majdal Shams, about 600 metres northeast of the explosion site. Before the explosion, he followed the whistle of the rocket to the west and then ran to a balcony to witness the explosion.

Sur cette seconde vidéo, un homme semble suivre quelque chose dans le ciel avec son téléphone, avant d'assister à l'explosion depuis un balcon. © Observateurs
So far, we have geolocated the two cameras that recorded the explosion and the explosion site itself. © Observers

Rocket’s possible trajectory

From some photos and videos shared after the rocket explosion, we were able to determine the approximate direction of the rocket's trajectory. Using this technique, we can estimate a directional range for the projectile. This method is not completely accurate but can provide a range of directions.

To do so, we compared the blast mark, which indicates the approximate direction of the rocket's landing, with the boundary of the football pitch. The rocket's trajectory runs at an angle of 80 to 110 degrees to the boundary of the football pitch. 

The rocket's trajectory runs at an angle of 80 to 110 degrees to the boundary of the football pitch. © Observers

This range of directions points to the northwest: in other words, to the south of Lebanon, controlled by Hezbollah.

Every week, Hezbollah plans several attacks on towns located in Israel and the Golan region, which it usually announces publicly. Sometimes, the organisation also distributes videos of these attacks through its media outlets from the south of Lebanon.

Using the known range of the Iranian-made “Falaq-1” rocket, which according to official documents is of 10 kilometres, we deduced that a Falaq-1 could possibly have been fired from the area of the south of Lebanon covered by the red triangle shown in the picture below. 

The red circle shows the maximum range of a Falaq-1 and the area in red is the possible range of direction of the projectile, which we have calculated. © Observers

We have compared our findings with the Israeli army's official statement on the rocket explosion at Majdal Shams. According to the Israeli army, the “Falaq-1” rocket was fired from this point in red, on the map.

According to the Israeli army statement, this map illustrates the trajectory of the “Falaq-1” rocket that struck Majdal Shams. The rocket was reportedly fired from the vicinity of the Khalifa bin Zayed Hospital in Shebaa, southern Lebanon. This location falls within the range of trajectories we calculated. However, the Observers cannot confirm that the rocket was fired from this precise point. © IDF

We have compared this map with the map we created based on the approximate direction of the rocket. The location given by the Israeli army as the launch site of the “Falaq-1” is in the middle of the range of possible trajectories that we were able to estimate from the photos of the explosion site. 

The blue line shows the trajectory indicated by the Israeli army in its announcement. According to the map published by the Israelis, the rocket was fired near the Khalifa bin Zayed Hospital in the south of Lebanon. © Observers

However, we cannot confirm that the rocket was fired from this precise point.

While the Israeli army affirms that Hezbollah fired this rocket at Majdal Shams, Hezbollah categorically denies responsibility. In an official statement, the Lebanese organisation declared that, on July 27, it had only fired some Katyusha rockets and Falaq-1 rockets at a military base in the Golan Heights, and nothing at Majdal Shams.

According to Hezbollah, the target of these rocket attacks was the Ma'aleh Golani barracks. Based on Hezbollah maps from this region, the barracks are a small Israeli military post, located more than 4 kilometres northeast of the football pitch that was hit.

Based on Hezbollah maps from this region, the barracks are a small Israeli military post, located more than 4 kilometres northeast of the football pitch that was hit, circled in red on the map. © Hezbollah

Trevor Ball, a former US Army explosive ordnance disposal specialist, describes “Falaq-1” as simple and imprecise:

Falaq-1s are very basic munitions that aren't very accurate. Falaq-1s, and other similar rockets are often launched from improvised launch rails which can further reduce their accuracy

According to Hezbollah, they attacked a military base located more than 4 kilometres northeast of Majdal Shams. Hezbollah's official media published this map of the “Ma'aleh Golani barracks” asserting that this was the target struck with a Falaq-1 rocket on July 27. © Observers

“I cannot accept the idea that the Israeli defence system is the origin of the explosion”

Hadj Boudani, an expert on ammunition and explosives, and former head of the Explosive Ordnance Disposal Service (EOD) in the French army, confirms the approximate trajectory of the rocket we found, with a certain percentage of error, as there are no images showing the explosion site from different angles.

I cannot accept the idea that the Israeli defence system is the origin of the explosion. In one of the videos recorded from a distance, we can see the fire after the explosion. That blast was caused by at least a 40 kg warhead. [A Falaq-1 warhead is 50 kg.] It has nothing to do with a Tamir missile. [Tamir is the missile used in the Iron Dome.]

However, this expert insists that a field inspection is required for a reliable conclusion:

The debris at the explosion site looks like ammunition debris. But normally you do not see as much debris near the explosion as in the Magen David Adom photo. I think people collected this debris and placed it there. In any case, it looks like the debris presented by the Israeli army. However, I must emphasise that despite all the evidence pointing to Hezbollah being responsible, there is no doubt that an expert must go there and investigate the area and the impact site.

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