Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell may believe he dodged a Kathy Barnette bullet in Pennsylvania’s Senate race.
But the unresolved Republican primary contest between celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz and former hedge fund manager Dave McCormick – who remain separated on Thursday by just over 1,000 votes with thousands left to count – could threaten to undermine party unity no matter which candidate is ultimately declared the victor.
And if it’s McCormick who overtakes Oz by winning the remaining lot of absentee ballots, the reaction of former President Donald Trump will weigh heavily on how quickly and seamlessly supporters of both men can come together to take on Democratic nominee John Fetterman.
Appearing on Fox News with Laura Ingraham Wednesday night, McCormick said he’s confident the remaining ballots will tip the razor-thin margin in his favor.
“Our campaign had put a lot of energy and time into focusing on these absentee voters,” McCormick said. “There’s tens of thousands of outstanding absentee ballots and I’ll win those disproportionately and that’ll put me over the top.”
But Oz is also assuming the posture of a winner.
“This election is ours,” he declared on Sean Hannity’s show just before McCormick’s interview.
It’ll be days and possibly weeks until anyone knows for sure.
As of Thursday morning, 17,000 Republican ballots remained uncounted, according to Pennsylvania’s Department of State.
Election officials in Allegheny County – where McCormick is leading – indicated that they wouldn’t be considering provisional ballots until Monday at the earliest.
Even once a winner is called, the secretary of state could order a recount if the difference is within one-half a percentage point. Oz’s current lead over McCormick is just one-tenth of a percentage point.
A recount could push the uncertainty of a winnerless primary into June and that’s not even considering the potential lawsuits that could follow.
Both sides understand the importance of being seen as on the verge of victory and positioning themselves for a fierce general election fight against Fetterman.
But Trump, who endorsed Oz, has already cast aspersions over the outstanding ballots.
“Dr. Oz should declare victory,” he wrote on his own social media platform Truth Social. “It makes it much harder for them to cheat with the ballots that they just happened to find.”
This is why a McCormick win has the potential to enrage Trump, who fumed that late ballots wiped out his early lead in Pennsylvania during the 2020 presidential election.
The reason mail-in ballots are counted late is the result of a Republican legislature that didn’t allow officials to begin counting ballots before Election Day.
“There may be some short-term fissure in the party but in general elections, those who would be on the Trump side, they’re going to be motivated to vote for Republicans,” said Mark Dion, a former chief of staff to retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey. “As long as it plays out and everyone is comfortable with the process, I think the party comes together.”
Then there’s Barnette, the conservative insurgent who earned a quarter of the primary vote despite being vastly outspent by both multimillionaires. She hasn’t explicitly pledged her support to the eventual nominee.
But it may just take time and the allure of political incentives for all parties involved, the biggest being Trump.
Jeffrey Lord, a former Trump adviser and CNN commentator who resides in Cumberland County, said 2024 is enough for the former president to vigorously support McCormick.
“No question in my mind (Trump’s) running again and would need PA to win,” Lord said. “So if McCormick wins I would expect him to make peace.”
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