It’s a rematch.
Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids will once again face off against Republican Amanda Adkins in the general election to represent Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District, in a repeat of the 2020 race that Davids won by 10 percentage points.
Both Davids and Adkins coasted to victory in their respective primaries Tuesday night, as Republicans coalesced around Adkins well before Election Day to take on the Democratic incumbent. They now officially head into a campaign both sides have already been waging for months.
“From a six-way primary four years ago, to running unopposed today, I’m honored to be the Democratic nominee for Congress in the Kansas Third District,” Davids said in a victory press release. “Even as we face growing division, this campaign has remained focused on listening to and delivering for Kansans.”
It is a race with national implications as one of the handful of suburban districts around the country that’ll determine which party controls the U.S. House.
Democrats currently have a nine-seat advantage in the 435-member House. Republicans are hoping that the midterm election — where the party in opposition to the president often picks up seats in Congress — will give their party control of the House for the first time since 2018, when Davids and other Democrats were swept into office amid opposition to former President Donald Trump.
In the Trump era, Johnson County, the state’s most populous county and a former Republican stronghold, voted increasingly Democratic, propelling Davids to victory in back-to-back elections.
But through redistricting, this campaign will take place on newly aligned turf after the Republican-controlled Kansas Legislature added two rural counties to the district — Franklin and Anderson — and sliced off a portion of Democratic-leaning Wyandotte County, the state’s most diverse county, giving Republicans an opportunity to flip the district.
“The biggest and most obvious [difference] is the redistricting that eliminates much of Davids’ voter base and strengthens Amanda’s traditional base,” said Jan Kessinger, a former moderate Republican state Representative from Johnson County. “So if the 2020 election were held today in today’s district, the race would be a lot closer.”
The newly competitive nature of the district makes Davids more vulnerable to the national sentiment surrounding her party in Washington, D.C., as President Joe Biden faces a low approval rating among the worst inflation in decades and the threat of a looming recession.Anti-Trump anger helped Davids win the district in 2018, the same way that anti-Obama sentiment helped former Rep. Kevin Yoder get elected in the district in 2010.
The newly competitive nature of the district makes Davids more vulnerable to the national sentiment surrounding her party in Washington, D.C., as President Joe Biden faces a low approval rating among the worst inflation in decades and the threat of a looming recession.
“Those most reliably Democratic voters have really been taken out of the district so I think she’s (Davids) much more vulnerable to whatever the mood of the moment is in the country, in her district,” Patrick Miller, a University of Kansas political scientist said. “By no means is she destined to lose but also by no means is she guaranteed to win.”
Adkins has been following the national Republican Party playbook, emphasizing inflation and the high price of gasoline in an effort to argue that Republicans need to control the U.S. House.
“We also know, here in this district, that people are worried. They live here because they’re focused on high quality of life. They’re worried about crime. They’re worried about a lack of a plan at our southern border,” she told supporters Tuesday night her election night party at Pinstripes in Overland Park.
National Republicans have also raised alarm about crime rates in an attempt to take advantage of the politically unpopular “defund the police” slogan employed by some progressive activists, but without high crime rates in the district, Adkins instead has turned her attention to Fentanyl as a way to criticize immigration policy.
“Johnson Countians want to know they have a representative that listens to them and, if they’re unhappy with who’s in power, with the presidency, that person can show some independence and is not in lock step,” said former Gov. Jeff Colyer, a Johnson County Republican. “I think Kansans do like a bit of an independent streak and Sharice, who’s a good candidate and very articulate, has not demonstrated that.”
Davids, for her part, has tried to limit some of the Republican attacks. She’s touted her work on the bipartisan infrastructure bill and has pushed for Congress to suspend the federal gas tax (Congress has not yet taken action on a bill). She also joined the House Agriculture Committee in an effort to learn more about the issues facing her new rural voters.
“She is very moderate, and probably tracks fairly conservative when she represents us in D.C.,” said state Rep. Stephanie Clayton, an Overland Park Democrat. “Honestly, she’s almost kind of boring and I think that’s exactly what we need. It’s the highest compliment that I could pay a politician, especially in these volatile times.”
Nationally, Democrats are hoping to keep their coalition together by painting Republicans as too extreme – particularly on abortion rights. In the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade and sending decisions on abortion access back to the states, Democrats are highlighting efforts to ban the procedure across the country.
The White House’s midterm messaging relies on abortion galvanizing voters – particularly the college educated suburban women who voted against Trump – in order to help the party stave off a Republican wave.
But Tuesday’s vote on the constitutional amendment could affect how voters respond on abortion rights. Clayton, an Overland Park Democrat, said the general election will be about abortion rights regardless of how the vote on the constitutional amendment turns out.
“If Kansans for life loses the amendment, they are going to come out with a vengeance and it’s going to be ugly,” Clayton said. “And if they win the amendment, they’re still going to come out with a vengeance because they want to take away the rights of Kansas women, and they will not stop until they’re gone.”
The Star’s Joseph Hernandez and Katie Bernard contributed reporting.
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