Let’s not kid ourselves. The biggest story of Phillies spring training is the 19-year-old who could end up in the starting rotation when the season opens March 30. But, then, you knew that. So, let’s give Andrew Painter a break and take a look at the three other plot lines that are worth some thought as pitchers and catchers hold their first workout in Clearwater, Fla.
Unlike in previous seasons, there aren’t a ton of unknowns with regard to the opening day 26. Barring injuries, the top seven slots in the bullpen are virtual locks: Seranthony Domínguez, José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Gregory Soto, Craig Kimbrel, Connor Brogdon, Andrew Bellatti. Same goes for the top four slots in the rotation (Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez), and three bench slots (utility men Edmundo Sosa and Josh Harrison, and catcher Garrett Stubbs). Plus eight lineup slots (Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott).
That leaves a whopping four spots that are even nominally up for grabs. Two seem likely to be filled by Darick Hall (lefty DH) and Bailey Falter (long reliever or No. 5 starter). The other two depend in large part on Painter. Some combination of long man, No. 5 starter, spot starter, extra bench bat. Pick two, any two.
High drama, it ain’t. But here are three questions for the wonks:
What happens when Brandon Marsh needs a day off?
The depth chart in center field is interesting (again, in a relative sense ... none of this stuff is all that interesting). Marsh is locked in as the starter, and it’s safe to assume that he’ll play good enough defense that the Phillies will ride with his bat, rain or shine. Which is good. Because they may not have a choice. The options behind Marsh aren’t just vague — if they were any less identifiable, NORAD might scramble the F-16s. Matt Vierling may not have done much to warrant his recurring cameos last season, but it’s a matter of fact that those cameos were made. His was a role the Phillies felt they needed, to the extent that they gave him a start in the World Series.
The big unknown is whether the Phillies think they need someone who can fill that role now that Vierling is gone. Do they think they need to carry a right-handed-hitting bench piece who who can give Marsh an occasional day off against lefties? If so, do they think Dalton Guthrie can fill that role? A 27-year-old utility man who spent September on the Phillies’ active roster and traveled with the team throughout the playoffs, Guthrie had a nice season at the plate at triple-A Lehigh Valley and reached base 14 times in 28 big-league plate appearances. An infielder by upbringing, Guthrie has logged 598⅔ innings in center field over his last couple of seasons in the minors. But the Phillies did not use him there at all last September.
The tea leaves suggest the Phillies view Guthrie as a viable replacement for Vierling, who was traded to Detroit in the deal for Soto. The other three spots on the bench appear to be locked up by utility men Sosa and Harrison and backup catcher Stubbs. Sosa is a team favorite whom manager Rob Thomson touted as a potential starter before the Phillies signed Trea Turner. Harrison may appear to be redundant, but the Phillies gave the veteran utility man $2 million guaranteed this offseason, which tells you all you need to know. Both are right-handed hitters, but neither plays center field.
I don’t think the Phillies will hesitate to carry three right-handed bats on the bench. Doing so gives them the ability to sub in a platoon partner for three of the four lefties in their lineup on any given night. Sosa can play second in place of Stott, or he can play third and allow Hoskins or Bohm to DH in place of lefty slugger Hall. Harrison can do the same, or play left field in place of Schwarber. Guthrie can play center field in place of Marsh or play the infield.
In the event of an injury to Marsh, the most obvious choice as a long-term sub is former Minnesota Twin Jake Cave, whom the Phillies claimed off of waivers in December. A left-handed hitter with 117 starts in center field in five seasons in the majors, Cave brings some pop and a .744 career OPS against righties to slot into the lineup for Marsh. He also has options remaining and can start the year at triple-A Lehigh Valley.
As long as the Phillies think Guthrie can play a competent center field, the current group makes sense.
Will Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola show any ill effects from their marathon seasons? And what about Seranthony Domínguez and Jose Alvarado?
Let’s be clear about the Phillies’ situation: those four arms will determine their ceiling. If each of them turns in a repeat of last season, this team has 100-win potential. The whole rotation is built on the notion that Wheeler and Nola will combine to give them a quality-to-dominant start two out of every five games. All the Phillies need from there are workmanlike seasons from Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez. Anything they get from Painter is a bonus. Likewise in the bullpen. If Domínguez and Alvarado can shut down the eighth and ninth inning like they did down the stretch last season, the Phillies should have more than enough options to handle the rest.
How likely is all of that to happen? We should start to get a sense in spring training. Wheeler started last year battling some lingering offseason soreness and he finished it battling elbow tendinitis. He was excellent in his first four postseason starts but seemed to hit a wall late in the NLCS. Nola didn’t have any explicit physical ailments, but he did log a career-high 230⅔ innings between the regular season and postseason and was hit hard in his last three playoff starts. Meanwhile, Domínguez and Alvarado are both coming off some of the heaviest usage of their careers, with Domínguez battling some arm trouble in September.
Over the winter, Rob Thomson said that he does not have any concerns about the impact of the Phillies’ long postseason run on his arms. But keep your fingers crossed.
How much production can the Phillies count on at DH?
A lot depends on whether Hall can be some version of the hitter he was during his first 29 games in the majors. The lefty slugger played a huge role in helping the Phillies survive Bryce Harper’s thumb surgery last season: so huge that you might forget he hit just 5-for-33 with 14 strikeouts and one extra-base hit in his last 12 games of the regular season.
Another stretch like that at the start of the season and the Phillies will likely start erring on the side of defense, moving Hoskins or Bohm to DH and putting Sosa in the lineup. For now, though, the Phillies have nothing to lose and plenty to gain from opening the season with Hall as their DH against righties. They saw last season what can happen when he’s hot: a .933 OPS with 17 extra-base hits, eight of them home runs, in 103 at-bats from June 29 to Aug. 7.
That said, there’s a decent chance the Phillies end up settling on a rotating cast that optimizes defense while playing the matchups. Sosa has hit righties slightly better than lefties in his career, including a solid .288/.359/.393 line in 247 plate appearances in 2021. Thomson could very well decide from the outset that replacing Bohm’s glove with Sosa’s at third could be the best way to offset the offense they lose from Harper at DH. The Phillies’ decision to sign Harrison may signal where they think the situation is headed: With Harper gone, they can use the DH to get a better glove in the field each night.
The first workout is Thursday. You can now return to your regular scheduled Painter content.
