The weekend was quintessential Sixers: a two-game stretch that gave you every reason to think they can compete in a playoff against the best the NBA can offer, and several reasons to wonder whether they can actually win four times in seven games.
Which of these matters more might depend upon your prior convictions. The lightning rods are as they were before: Joel Embiid, James Harden, Doc Rivers. If Thursday’s come-from-behind win over the Grizzlies and Saturday’s last-second loss to the Celtics proved anything, it’s that the Sixers fate lies with those three men.
When Embiid plays with the energy he showed against Al Horford and the Celtics on Saturday, the Sixers are a legitimate NBA Finals threat.
The only question is whether he can/will do it for four quarters a game, every game. That may be unfair, but that’s reality.
One of the eternal truths about the Sixers is that they will enter the postseason one role player shy of a complete team. 2023 is no exception. A year that started with Danuel House signing a bi-annual exception has now arrived at the stage where Rivers shrugs and subs in Shake Milton for a two-minute stretch.
Look at the Sixers’ 110-107 loss to the Celtics on Saturday night. The bench plus-minuses tell you all you need to know. One one side, you have Derrick White at +25 and Malcolm Brogdon at +18. On the other, you have Georges Niang at minus-22 and Paul Reed at minus-14.
Whether the bench struggles are on the coach or on the personnel, Embiid is the one most capable of rendering them moot. He’s that good. We saw that throughout the loss to the Celtics, which he finished with 41 points on 12-of-21 shooting. He showed none of the ambivalence that has characterized previous outings against Horford, whose cagey, physical style has often left Embiid looking frustrated and disengaged. He attacked the rim, used his size to his advantage, and made excellent decisions.
Compare that to the Embiid we saw in the first half against the Grizzlies two nights earlier. Yes, he was sick. Yes, he was coming off a long All-Star Break layoff. But 2-for-14 counts as 2-for-14 regardless of the circumstances. And when Embiid does it the way he did it against the Grizzlies — slowly, meekly, unsmartly — it infects the whole court. He shook it off in the second half, leading the Sixers on a 12-point comeback to win 110-105. But you can’t always count on your opponent shooting 1-for-15 from deep.
Rivers needs to figure out his bench.
Clearly, the solution is something other than the lineup he ran out on the court late in the first quarter against the Celtics. The trio of James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Georges Niang probably can’t survive with anybody at the five, let alone Paul Reed. Jaden McDaniels can only do so much to keep that group afloat. You could see it in Joe Mazzulla’s body language when the Celtics head coach saw that group on the court to start the second quarter. This was an opportunity for the Celtics to stack some points.
That’s exactly what they did, going on an 11-2 run before Rivers replaced Reed with P.J. Tucker. It’s disconcerting that the Sixers are still fumbling around for the optimal way to handle their non-Embiid minutes. The results of this latest experiment speak for themselves: in 16.5 minutes, that group has been outscored 51-28 while allowing opponents to shoot 19-of-31 from the field and 8-of-14 from three-point range. That’s a defensive rating of 159.4 and an effective field-goal percentage of .742.
McDaniels is an asset. He brings a ton of energy to the court, and remains under control while doing so. You can see why Daryl Morey thought it wise to swap him for Matisse Thybulle. Problem is, they really need a second McDaniels.
The struggles at the back-up five spot are what they are. It’s a tough role to fill, especially when you are a team built around one of the best centers in NBA history. The bigger issue is the lack of a wing player who can replace Niang. House was supposed to be that guy, but the Sixers have clearly decided that he isn’t. Rivers found a more palatable solution in the second half, paring Tucker and Tobias Harris with Harden and Maxey, along with McDaniels. The Sixers would be fine if they could get through a playoff series with a seven-man rotation. But it’s tough to make the rotation work without an eighth.
The Sixers would be better off with one or two less shots a game from Harden.
With an effective field-goal percentage of .550, Harden is having one of the most efficient seasons of his career. He’s shooting .432 from three-point range over his last 20 games and .394 on the season. That’s big. He’s been an elite passer and facilitator at the point. That’s big, too. The only thing that’s missing is better decision making when he gets into the paint with the ball. Reality is, he can’t finish at the rim like he used to, and he only compounds matters by forcing things.
Against the Celtics, Harden was 0-for-4 from mid-range. On the season, he is shooting just .418 between six and 16 feet. That ranks 68th out of 105 players with at least 100 attempts in that range, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Truth is, Harden has never been great from that distance. During his Rockets peak, he shot just .39% on those paint-extended jumpers. That ranked 95th out of 127 NBA players with at least 1,000 attempts from that distance between 2013-20. The difference is that he shot them way less often. Back then, they accounted for a little over a third of his two-point attempts (37.4%). This year, it’s closer to two-thirds (57.6%). That’s a huge difference.
The continued improvement we’ve seen out of Harden and the improving synergy between Harden and Embiid are the two biggest reasons for optimism about the Sixers. At the end of the day, it’s going to come down to those two and the coach.
