PHILADELPHIA — The wind needs to start blowing before anybody knows where they are going. Daryl Morey and the Sixers are in the same boat as everyone else this offseason. The smoke is thicker than usual. The uncertainty is in the purple zone. Hazardous to short-term planning. I don’t know if there are more dominoes than usual, but there are more of them at the front of the line. James Harden, Damian Lillard, Karl-Anthony Towns, Bradley Beal, DeAndre Ayton, Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul. When you think about the amount of talent, money, and teams involved, the majority of the NBA’s offseason movement could be within two or three degrees of separation of those names.
Harden is Plan A for the Sixers. Morey actually used the phrase “Scenario A” when discussing Harden at his press conference a couple of weeks ago. Did he tip his hand with that semantic sleight of hand? More likely, it came from a combination of leverage and optics. However you word it, Harden is the Sixers’ best chance at building their best team. Scenario B would leave the Sixers needing, in Morey’s words, “to get creative.” They’ll still need to do that in Scenario A. Re-signing Harden only gives them the same team they had last season. They’ll have the same levers to pull to augment him as they would to replace him. They’d have the mid-level extension to spend in free agency. They’d have Tobias Harris’ contract to swap for more complementary part(s). They’d have a 2029 first-round draft pick to trade.
This might be a good offseason to be in the Sixers’ situation. When impact players are on the trade block, deals have a tendency to expand in a way that creates openings for teams who are looking to address more niche needs. Salary-matching and motivation can be a recipe for third-party value. You can bet Morey and his staff have a hard drive full of contingencies.
Let’s try to talk ourselves to a point where we understand where we are.
1. Harden returning to the Sixers remains the most likely outcome.
That’s my (strictly deductive) read on it. The Houston smoke only makes sense for either side if there is another big move in play. That team might not be a playoff contender with Harden alone, let alone a title contender. Harden surely knows that, as do the Rockets. He’s at a point in his career where he needs to be paired with another primary scorer who isn’t a defensive liability. The Rockets would also need to add a big man.
The first part of the equation is more difficult to solve. What available star makes sense alongside Harden? Not Lillard. Not Zach LaVine or Trae Young, even if they become available. Irving and Paul are already crossed out. Beal could be a co-star that Harden can talk himself into. But are the Rockets really willing to add that level of money, injury risk, and recent regression to their balance sheet?
The second part is manageable. There is a glut of quality bigs on the free-agent market this year, from attainable options like Jakob Poeltl, Naz Reid, Nikola Vucevic to less likelier candidates to move like Draymond Green and Brook Lopez.
That said, the Rockets are a blank slate for fantasy general managers, and maybe that’s what Harden is. There are plenty of ways to use the Rockets’ cap room and trade assets to cobble together a team that could make sense to a player like Harden. Sign Harrison Barnes and Bruce Brown, trade for Ayton, etc. But, then, there’s a reason they call it “fantasy.”
2) Lillard is the one potential kingpin who could impact the Sixers, albeit tangentially.
Forget about Beal for the Sixers. If it gets to that point, you’ll need to order the extra strength Kool-Aid. If the Sixers are reluctant to give Harden the full four-year max, why would they feel any differently about Beal? You know who has missed more games than Harden over the last three seasons? Beal. You know who has seen a bigger drop in his scoring average? Beal. You know who is currently owed roughly the same amount of money as Harden would be on a max deal? You guessed it. Beal.
Beal’s a better finisher. He has the ability to be a better defender. But the injuries and the regression and the lack of an elite non-scoring skill set make him a far bigger risk and more questionable fit with the Sixers. They’d be better off giving Harden the kind of contract that would essentially force him to stay.
As for Lillard, the Sixers don’t have the ability to compete in a trade. And there’s no indication Lillard would push for a trade to the Sixers. That said, they could still feel the impact of such a monumental move, given that the Heat and the Nets are two teams that Lillard has expressed interest in playing for. He’d be a perfect fit for a Miami team that desperately needs another perimeter scorer who can take a game in his hands. Likewise with the Nets, who could be a handful if they landed Lillard and bulked themselves up around him and Mikal Bridges.
I would guess that Lillard’s fate will ultimately be decided by how Portland feels about whoever they would draft at No. 3. If they see a guy who is a potential cornerstone-type, it would make sense to try to execute a quick rebuild with Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant. Otherwise, it would make more sense to use No. 3, No. 23, and Simons to build a team around Lillard in the trade market while re-signing Grant. Towns and Ayton are both possible fits. Possible.
In addition to altering the complexion of the Eastern Conference, any Lillard trade could require high-priced role players (Duncan Robinson, Joe Harris, etc) to move elsewhere, or multiple elsewheres.
Which brings us to the Sixers’ biggest unknown of the offseason (besides Harden).
3. One way or another, the Sixers’ ability to meaningfully improve their roster will come down to the market for Tobias Harris.
Whatever you think the Sixers can get for Harris, you probably need to reduce it by an order of magnitude. He isn’t a player you “get” something for. He’s a player you “accept” something for, while hoping you don’t have to include too much else. That’s not a knock on Harris, who is still a fine player who would help plenty of teams. The problem is that those teams will be operating on the assumption that the Sixers “need” to trade Harris. In other words, the Sixers are highly likely to be the more motivated party in any deal. Plus, the most precious commodity on the offseason market is cap space. It’s priced accordingly.
The relevant comp is the late-2020 deal that sent Al Horford and a future first-round pick to the Thunder for Danny Green. Coincidentally, that was Morey’s first big move as president. If Harden doesn’t return, the Sixers would presumably be looking for a similar deal that would see them clear somewhere north of $20 million of salary and put them in position to make a sizable free-agent signing. If Harden does return, they could be in a position to emphasize the talent returning — say, a couple of Green types. Either way, the big question is whether there is a team out there that sees Harris as something more than just a way to swap out of a bad contract or add a first-round pick. That would make the Sixers’ job a lot easier.
