PHILADELPHIA — Information plus motivation is greater than depreciation. That’s the calculation Sixers president Daryl Morey has made. As long as it holds, Ben Simmons will remain trapped in basketball purgatory, trapped in that realm where only the spirits play. Maybe the balance of that equation changes between now and Thursday, when the NBA trade deadline arrives. By no means is it a given.
If that still surprises you at this point, you need to start paying closer attention. Can the Sixers afford to wait until the offseason to trade Simmons? Not only can they, it’s increasingly looking like the most sensible option.
Morey has made it clear that he will not trade Simmons until he gets an offer that significantly betters their odds at competing for a title. There will come a point when the best available offer becomes the most rational move. That point is when the costs of holding on to him outweigh the benefits. Many people think the Sixers have long crossed that point. In reality, they are nowhere close.
Information, motivation, depreciation. If that sounds like something you’d find on Sir Lucas Capetian’s whiteboard, forgive me. In general, it’s a good rule of thumb to distrust anybody who talks in a manner that is liable to have all the Crypto Bros in the room nodding in agreement. Life is not a Power Point slide. Or a Matt Damon commercial. It’s a complex game with too many actors and variables to be solved with a simple linear equation. And, yet, this one has proven remarkably accurate in predicting the place the Sixers and Simmons find themselves. Six months into the ordeal, it continues to point the same way.
Let’s start with information. Think about all of the things we know now that we did not know at the start of the season. Most recently, we know that Wizards star Bradley Beal might be open to leaving Washington after 10 seasons. We know that there might be some trouble brewing in Brooklyn, where former Rockets superstar and impending free agent James Harden has yet to signal a long-term commitment to the Nets.
We know that the Trail Blazers look as far from contention as they have ever been since Damian Lillard’s rise to prominence — much further than they were when the game-changing guard reaffirmed his allegiance to Portland late last summer.
We know the Sixers have a potential star in Tyrese Maxey, to an extent that Morey must now factor his emergence into his plans. These things are not insignificant variables.
Morey’s knowledge base will only grow between now and the offseason. His front office will have an entire college basketball season’s worth of scouting reports on this year’s prospects. Once the NBA draft lottery occurs in June, he will know where any potential trading partner is picking.
A lot of people assume Morey will end up having to settle for a deal well short of his current demands. If that ends up being the case, and draft capital is a significant part of the return, wouldn’t it make sense to have as much information about the draft as possible?
As for motivation, that too will only grow. In aggregate, at least. It’s self-evident that the offseason is the best time to strike complex deals, because complex deals require maximum flexibility, and the offseason is the time when teams have the most flexibility with their rosters and payrolls. It’s also a time when the majority of teams in the league are in the business of building playoff contenders.
In the offseason, there are no sellers (at least, as a general rule). This offseason, teams like the Wizards, Spurs, Kings, Blazers, Celtics and Hawks will take a fresh look at their drawing boards after a year-long realization that the current formula did not work. Simmons might not be increasing his value on the court. But a part of market value is a buyer’s motivation.
Granted, the biggest part of Simmons’ value lies in other teams’ evaluations and projections of him. Whatever Morey gains by waiting may not be enough to alter his return by the order of magnitude he might seek. But there are indeed things to gain. And any deal he strikes now comes with the opportunity cost of a future better deal. Maybe no such deal materializes. But why not wait it out as long as you can?
The reality is, there are only three scenarios in which it will make sense to pull the trigger. The first is the scenario in which Morey realizes beyond a shadow of the doubt that there will be no better offers. We’ve already established that is not the case.
The second is the scenario in which Morey gets an offer that would make a meaningful impact on the Sixers’ odds of advancing to a level of competition beyond their current one. Even without Simmons, they are where they have been for most of the past four seasons with him. They would be a better team with him, or with a package of complementary players. But that sort of thing isn’t going to take them to the next step.
The third scenario in which it would make sense to pull the trigger on a trade is one where Simmons loses more value than the Sixers gain by holding on to him. True, that’s a subjective judgment. But he will still be 25 years old this summer. He will still have three years remaining on his contract. Given how last season ended, his value might actually rise now that people aren’t watching him. Besides, it’s not like he’s going to lose his shot.
As long as the equation remains the way it looks, we should expect Morey to continue doing the sensible thing. The Sixers are where they are now because a series of rash, borderline panicky decisions turned out in the worst possible way. It will take some serious general managin’ to get them off this plateau.
Morey should take all the time that he needs to get this one right.
