CLEARWATER, Fla. — It shouldn’t surprise anybody if the final member of the Phillies’ Opening Day roster is currently wearing another jersey. In fact, it’s one of the strongest conclusions you can draw once you consider their limited range of options to fill their one obvious hole. With 10 days remaining before the Phillies open the season in Texas on March 30, the need for a right-handed hitter capable of playing solid center-field defense is as glaring as it was when spring training began. That speaks volumes.
Some context is in order here. The search for a fifth and final bench player is among the more fortunate of issues that a team could be dealing with post-St. Patrick’s Day. The Phillies haven’t had a perfect spring, but the pieces for a strong start to the season appear to be very much in place. Last year at this time, Zack Wheeler was still in the early stages of his progression after an offseason beset by shoulder soreness and illness. Aaron Nola was coming off a season in which he posted a 4.63 ERA. Kyle Gibson was on his way to starting Game 2. Seranthony Domínguez had thrown one big league inning in 30-plus months. Trea Turner was a Dodger. Brandon Marsh was an Angel. Rob Thomson was the guy sitting next to Joe Girardi in the dugout.
The 2023 Phillies were a very good team on paper before spring training began, and that paper is very much intact. They are deeper in each phase of the game: rotation, bullpen, lineup. The interplay of that depth can only help the collective, as can the growth they experienced during last year’s World Series run. The sense of anticipation percolating here at BayCare Ballpark and up north in Philadelphia is very much warranted.
So, no, Scott Kingery’s immediate future isn’t some kind of season-defining thing. Same goes for Jake Cave, Darick Hall, Dalton Guthrie, Kody Clemens and whatever external options the Phillies will consider as they look to round out their bench. But it is the most interesting question going.
Let’s start with what we know. We know 11 of the 13 position players the Phillies will carry. Eight regulars. Backup utilitymen Edmundo Sosa and Josh Harrison. Backup catcher Garrett Stubbs. We know the most important contributions the Phillies can get from those last two bench spots are: 1) some left-handed power to replace what they will be missing from Bryce Harper while he recovers from elbow surgery; 2) some center-field defense to replace what they will miss from Marsh whenever he does not play; 3) some ability to hit lefties while playing center field, given Marsh’s struggles against them.
There is no obvious combination, as Dave Dombrowski acknowledged Sunday.
“When I talk to people and say, ‘We’ve got five guys who are competing, which two would you take?’ I might get five different names, five different combinations of people,” the Phillies president said.
To me, the ideal scenario looks something like this: Hall starts the season as the everyday DH against righties and picks up where he left off last season, when he hit nine home runs with an .853 OPS in the month before Harper’s return from thumb surgery. Meanwhile, Marsh holds his own against lefty pitchers enough to start every day and play all game, while Kingery ends up returning to his early-career form, giving the Phillies a right-handed hitting option in case Marsh’s struggles against lefties continues or the Phillies need a long-term sub in center field or at the Sosa/Harrison utility spots. Likewise, Cave returns to the form he showed as a rookie when he hit 10 home runs with an .844 OPS in 237 plate appearances against righties, thereby giving the Phillies a long-term lefty-hitting sub for Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, or Hall.
The argument for Hall is simple: He did it last season, and he’s done it this spring, with five home runs and a 1.024 OPS in 41 Grapefruit League at-bats. Give him a chance to stay hot. If he doesn’t, give Cave a chance. We’ve seen Hall’s upside. Why not find that out first?
While the Phillies are finding that out, why not put Cave in a situation where he is playing regularly in preparation for a need arising at DH or one of the outfield spots? If Hall struggles for the first month, Cave will get his shot. If he doesn’t, that’s good.
Likewise, with Kingery. The entire argument for keeping him is based on the notion that the combination of his right-handed bat and center-field defense is something that the Phillies would deploy regularly enough to warrant adding him to the 40-man roster. But the best version of this Phillies team is one where Marsh proves he can hit lefties well enough to keep his glove on the field. In order to prove that, he needs to face them. Until that happens, where would the Phillies use Kingery?
On Sunday, Dombrowski cited the desire to have Marsh face lefties when somebody asked if the Phillies feel like they “have to” complement him with a right-handed option.
“When you say, ‘You have to,’ I don’t know,” he said. “It’s the same question that we’re going to ask ourselves. How much is Marsh going to play out there vs. lefties? He’s hitting lefties much better.”
Having Kingery start the year in the minors isn’t just the path of least resistance from a roster-management standpoint. It’s also the path of most upside. His .974 spring OPS looks nice, but are 33 at-bats really enough to conclude anything other than to hope that it’s the beginning of a real turnaround? Keep in mind, he didn’t play a single inning of center field last season, and he’s only played eight since the end of 2020. If he really is in the process of turning things around, why not allow him to continue that process while playing every day? Doesn’t that maximize the chances that the Phillies have a viable option if they end up needing more than the occasional right-handed at-bat in center field?
Hall in the lineup. Kingery in the minors. At the moment, that seems like the smartest play. From there, a lot depends on what happens in this next week-and-a-half in Phillies camp. And, for that matter, elsewhere.
