PHILADELPHIA — The offseason was less than an hour old when the annual lobbying campaign began. Somebody asked Bryce Harper if he wanted to send a message to the fans about the Phillies’ determination to repeat as National League champs. Instead, he responded with a message that seemed intended for his bosses.
“It’s going to be the same team, with a couple more pieces, I imagine,” Harper said after the Phillies’ season-ending loss to the Astros in Game 6 of the World Series. “Dave Dombrowski is our guy. John Middleton understands we want to win, and he wants to win right now, too. So I’d imagine that we’re going to be the same team with some more pieces that make us that much better.”
This is nothing new. From the moment the Phillies signed Harper to a 13-year, $330 million contract in the spring of 2019, the superstar has been pushing them to spend more. In Middleton, he has found a receptive audience. The Phillies have made at least one big-ticket free-agent signing in each of Harper’s first three offseasons with the club: Zack Wheeler after 2019, J.T. Realmuto after 2020, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos after 2021. In fact, the run stretches back even further, with Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta after 2018 and Andrew McCutchen alongside Harper.
There’s no reason to think the 2022 offseason will play out any differently. With Major League Baseball’s free-agent signing period officially underway, there already are plenty of signs that Dombrowski and Middleton will be looking toward the top of the market. Their decision to turn down the club option on veteran second baseman Jean Segura’s contract created a conspicuous hole in the middle of the infield at the same time four superstar shortstops were set to hit free agency. That group is headlined by 29-year-old Trea Turner, who spent his first four seasons in the big leagues playing alongside Harper with the Nationals.
The Phillies have plenty of money to spend: potentially upwards of $60 million when you consider the $170 million they are currently projected to spend on 20 players for next season. On Wednesday, two days after the Phillies declined Segura’s $17 million option, Dombrowski suggested he would be operating with a green light from ownership.
“We have complete flexibility to do whatever we like,” the Phillies president told reporters at MLB’s annual general managers’ meetings, according to MLB.com “So that’s how I would answer that question. We’ll just see what happens.
“Jean did a nice job for us. We thought the option price was high. … It really gives us complete flexibility in what we want to do in the middle infield. We have a young player in [Bryson] Stott that we really like a lot. He can play short or second. We also have a young player in [Edmundo] Sosa that we like a lot. We feel that even if we didn’t sign Jean back and we didn’t do anything else, internally we have some answers ourselves. But it also gives us, as the winter progresses, complete flexibility to make additions as we want.”
Pitching might be the Phillies' biggest need, but shortstop is the position where the they can best flex their financial muscle this offseason. The free-agent market isn’t a grocery store. At least not one with functional supply chains. If Dombrowski could log onto Amazon and order two more Zack Wheelers for $60 million, he probably would. The problem is that there are no Wheelers available on this year’s market. Wheeler was coming off back-to-back seasons of 180-plus innings pitched when the Phillies signed him to a five-year, $118 million contract. None of the top three starters on this year’s market has reached 180 innings since 2019.
The options are what they are. Justin Verlander will be 40 years old next season, an age where the physiological cliff can be one start away. Carlos Rodon and Jacob deGrom have some of the best stuff in the game — and some of the worst durability. Rodon is coming off a career-high 178 innings; he averaged 73 in the five seasons prior. deGrom is coming off a season in which he made a mere 11 starts; over the last two seasons combined, he’s logged 156 1/3 innings. Each of those guys will almost certainly require an annual commitment of at least $25 million per year. That could easily climb to $30 million. Keep in mind, Noah Syndergaard signed for $21 million last offseason.
The options are even slimmer in the bullpen. There’s a reason the Mets just signed would-be free agent Edwin Diaz to a deal worth $20-plus million per year.
Obviously, the Phillies need to add pitching. But money alone isn’t going to solve their problems. Their best strategy might be to offset those problems elsewhere.
A player like Turner would go a long way toward making the Phillies a more consistent, functional group in the field and at the plate. He would immediately become their best contact hitter, their best baserunner, their best infielder defender, all by an order of magnitude. He would also pair their best player with his spirit animal.
The Turner-Harper connection may be circumstantial, but dismiss it at your own peril. Harper has previously labeled Turner his “favorite player in the league,” including during an appearance in the Phillies’ broadcast booth this summer while he was rehabbing his broken thumb. Once upon a time, he said similar things about a catcher named J.T. Realmuto.
Not that Turner needs Harper’s endorsement. Over the last four seasons, the righty has established himself as one of the best two-way players in the game. Since 2019, he is hitting .311 with a .361 on base percentage, .509 slugging percentage and an average of 26 home runs per 162 games. While Turner’s production dipped a bit in 2022, he still finished the season hitting .298/.343/.466 with 21 home runs.
The biggest question might be whether Turner is even the Phillies’ best option. Xander Bogaerts is in the midst of a five-year run that is every bit as impressive as Turner’s, with a .301/.373/.508 line and 27 home runs per 162 games. He recently opted out of the contract he signed with the Red Sox in 2019, when Dombrowski was Boston’s general manager.
The Phillies also are plenty familiar with Dansby Swanson, an excellent defender who has spent the last seven seasons with the division-rival Braves. His offensive numbers rank a distant fourth among the available options, finishing as an average-or-below hitter in four of his last six seasons. But Swanson is coming off a Gold Glove season in which he posted a .776 OPS with 25 home runs. Plus, he won’t turn 29 until spring training.
The biggest wild card of the group is former Astros superstar Carlos Correa. The Phillies presumably did their due diligence on him when he was a free agent last offseason and had to settle for a three-year, $105.3 million deal with the Twins. Then again, they had Segura under contract and Stott on the verge of the majors.
“There are four really good shortstops out there, right?” Dombrowski said. “I wouldn’t get into any specifics on which ones we like, but we like all of them, as I think probably every club in baseball. That’s not a revelation. We like them all.”
From Dombrowski’s mouth to Harper’s ears. The Phililies are not done spending yet.
