David Crisafulli has claimed victory for the Liberal National party in the Queensland election after a campaign that focused heavily on a series of hardline crime promises.
The election marks the end of Labor’s decade-long reign in Queensland and is only the second time the Liberal or National parties have won a state poll since 1989.
The LNP looks on track to win a narrow majority. The scale of the victory fell well short of most predictions and polling that showed, just weeks ago, the opposition was headed for a landslide win.
The victory was achieved by breaking Labor’s century-long hold over heartland seats in central Queensland; but the LNP would also be disappointed not to have made significant gains in the state capital.
“Today Queenslanders voted for hope over fear,” Crisafulli told party faithful at Brisbane’s W hotel.
“To the people of this great state, I’ve lived and I’ve worked at both ends of it, and I love every inch of it.
“Of the last 12 general elections in this state, we’ve only won one on election night. And tonight we get to celebrate the biggest achievement we’ve had in over a decade.
“Elections are about people and it’s about doing good for those who don’t have a voice. What history will show was that tonight was the turning point of the youth crime crisis.
“By Christmas ‘adult crime, adult time’ will be law.”
Crisafulli inherited a divided, directionless opposition that had been soundly beaten at the 2020 election, held in the shadow of the Covid pandemic.
In four years as opposition leader, Crisafulli has run a disciplined opposition – largely shelving internal friction between moderates, conservatives and rightwing Christians.
He has pushed the notion of a “youth crime crisis” and it became a hallmark of the LNP’s policies and campaign.
In addition to plans to legislate to sentence children as adults, Crisafulli also says he will reform the Youth Justice Act and the detention system. Experts have warned many of those plans are not supported by evidence.
The LNP leader has promised he will resign in four years if crime “victim numbers” have not reduced.
Polling narrowed significantly during the four-week election campaign and Labor outperformed many predictions. Momentum shifted as Labor sought to highlight divisions in the LNP ranks on abortion and nuclear power; in his speech Crisafulli dismissed those issues and said “a scare campaign won’t be able to be run in four years’ time”.
“This isn’t America. We don’t pander to extremes. We deliver extremely good outcomes for everyday people.”
He even borrowed from the former Labor prime minister Gough Whitlam, saying “it’s time”.
“We haven’t won back-to-back elections in this state since 1986. We govern with humility and decency and vision and tenacity, and in doing so we get the opportunity to govern for longer.”
The outgoing premier, Steven Miles, spent 10 months in the job after the retirement of three-time election winner Annastacia Palaszczuk.
When he spoke to volunteers in Murrumba, in Brisbane’s north, Miles did not appear to concede. It was unclear at that point whether the LNP would win enough seats to form a majority.
“Being Queensland’s premier for 10 months has been the greatest honour of my life,” Miles said.
“For that kid from Petrie it is more than I could ever have dreamed of.
“It was always going to be a challenging election for Labor but I have no regrets about the campaign or indeed the last 10 months as premier.
“I said at the beginning of this that I wasn’t going to die wondering, and I stand by that tonight.”
Labor’s rally was largely focused on Brisbane, where the LNP made few gains. It also fought off predicted challenges by the Greens in inner-city seats.
The Greens appear to have lost at least one of their two seats in the state parliament; Labor has won back South Brisbane, and the LNP was narrowly ahead in Maiwar.
On Saturday night, the ABC was predicting the LNP would win at least 49 seats, clear of the 47 required for a majority. Labor had won 30. The crossbench would include three Katter’s Australian party MPs and one independent. Ten seats remained in doubt.
The statewide two-party preferred vote was 56-44 in favour of the LNP, and that lead could grow as more pre-poll and postal votes were counted. The LNP’s primary vote of 41.8% was the party’s highest since the 2012 landslide that elected Campbell Newman’s government.
Labor’s primary vote of 32.9% was a 6.7% swing compared to the 2020 election, but still leaves the party in a significantly better position that in 2012, when it won just seven seats.
