The immediate days after the NFL week has concluded involve an influx of infographics that signal if our favorite teams are back, or if it’s over for them. In this week’s data dump, we can announce that the team is indeed back. If the thrilling victory over one of the premier teams of the NFC did not convince the world that the Cleveland Browns were back, here is the data to prove it.
A word to the wise, NFL analytics are incredibly challenging due to the complexity of the sport. It’s extremely hard to accurately assign both credit and blame to the players involved in any given play. Analytics are best used in the sport to judge the whole team instead of individual players.
The analytics indicate that the Browns’ defense is peerless. They are playing better than any team has since 1999. In a reversal of last season, it is the Browns’ offense that is currently holding the team back. The Browns need Deshaun Watson to heal up and take command of a lifeless offense. The Browns’ offense only needs to be average for the Browns to be a serious Super Bowl contender.
Browns in Tier Six
We’re once again starting the series off with the NFL Tier chart courtesy of Ben Baldwin. The Browns have yet to move out of tier six as the offense struggles to put points on the board. If the offense can string together some more average performances, the team could catapult into tier four, with serious playoff contenders.
~~ 6 weeks into the NFL season ~~
The Detroit Lions might be #good pic.twitter.com/T6y0Wc7MZY
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 17, 2023
Successful and Stalled Offensive Drives
Focusing on the Browns’ offense, Kevin Stefanski has done a good job of avoiding three-and-outs on offense. The offense sputters out, often time through self-inflicted wounds like penalties. These problems are correctable with the steady leadership of a quarterback to direct the offense.
Offensive 3 and out rates through 6 weeks.
Sean Payton's offense: bottom 6 and 38% 3 and out after playing 3 bottom 10 defenses by EPA
Nathaniel Hackett's offense: 16th and 33% 3 and out after playing 3 top 10 defenses by EPA pic.twitter.com/v1Q3yGHAL3— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) October 17, 2023
The Browns’ failures to sustain drives are best shown in the following graph. Currently, the Browns rank inside the bottom five offenses in drives that end in touchdowns. While the Browns’ defense is playing at a historically dominant level, the team needs to score more points to win games.
How consistent each offense has been at taking a 1st & 10 and earning a new set of downs.
We have a new No. 1! pic.twitter.com/HIdCqhRwfi
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 17, 2023
Analyzing the pass catchers
Examining the Browns’ passing offense is hard without the franchise quarterback to operate it. The Browns’ passing offense is going through a refinement period as their pass-catching trio is quickly amassing a larger target share. Hopefully, the return of Deshaun Watson will see the trio’s production increase, as many of the targets have been inaccurate. Specifically, Elijah Moore has yet to develop a connection with any of the Browns’ starting quarterbacks.
Team target concentration:
*Nelson Agholor might now be the WR2 in Baltimore
*It's Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (with some Tutu sprinkled in) for the Rams, and that's about it
*DeVonta Smith still with encouraging usage, but the production just hasn't been there pic.twitter.com/pvlgDJeHjB— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) October 17, 2023
Defensive Series Results
The Browns defense remains exceptional. This past Sunday they shut down the high-octane San Francisco 49er’s offense. The Browns are leading the league in Defensive Series Results. The Browns’ defense is doing a great job at getting opposing offenses off the field. They are the new hope for a serious playoff run this season.
The Browns defense is very good and was finally able to show it against a real offense pic.twitter.com/KmNgTORmht
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 17, 2023
Playoff Predictions
Speaking of the playoffs, the Browns’ victory propelled the team past the Steelers in SumerSport’s latest playoff probabilities. The analytics company runs over a thousand simulations based on the season’s statistics.
Updated Playoff Probabilities – Through Week 6 (Before MNF) pic.twitter.com/g5EUtqMQPQ
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) October 16, 2023
DVOA
As always, we finish the series with a DVOA update. DVOA stands for “Defense-adjusted Value Over Expectation” and the metric has been the golden standard since its release well over a decade ago. DVOA is released by FTNFantasy.
Currently, the Browns are in ninth place climbing one spot over the past two weeks. The team’s defense overtook the number one ranking, but again the lack of offense has caused a severe lag between their overall rank compared to their defensive unit rank. It cannot be overstated enough how badly the Browns need the offense to be average this season.
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA RANK | TOTAL DVOA | OFFENSE DVOA | OFFENSE RANK | DEFENSE DVOA | DEFENSE RANK | SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA | SPECIAL TEAMS RANK |
 |
1 | 44.60% | 30.80% | 2 | -14.00% | 5 | -0.10% | 20 |
 |
2 | 38.80% | 22.40% | 4 | -16.50% | 3 | -0.10% | 19 |
 |
3 | 38.00% | 27.30% | 3 | -11.20% | 6 | -0.60% | 21 |
 |
4 | 28.20% | 40.30% | 1 | 7.80% | 27 | -4.40% | 30 |
 |
5 | 27.90% | 15.10% | 6 | -9.90% | 9 | 2.90% | 4 |
 |
6 | 25.20% | 8.10% | 10 | -16.60% | 2 | 0.50% | 15 |
 |
7 | 17.80% | 12.90% | 7 | -1.60% | 13 | 3.20% | 3 |
 |
8 | 14.60% | 2.20% | 13 | -10.30% | 8 | 2.10% | 7 |
 |
9 | 13.60% | -15.70% | 27 | -29.30% | 1 | 0.00% | 18 |
