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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Browns Alchemy

Data Dump: Where are the Browns trending after Week 7?

The conclusion of the seventh week of the NFL schedule brings about an influx of data-driven analysis about the sport. The season is 1/3rd of the way over, and trends are becoming more pronounced as the sample size grows. As trends are further exposed, the predictive performance of models becomes more and more accurate. Teams are revealing how good they are, and the tiers across the league are beginning to solidify. With the trade deadline a week away, it’s not too late for a team to make drastic improvements.

Last season the San Francisco 49ers made their blockbuster move for Christian McCaffrey at the deadline, who elevated a good offense to an elite one. The Browns should also take a big swing on offense, as we’ll see, the numbers are not kind to them. The Browns have proven that their defense can win them games, but that is not a winning strategy long-term.

The Browns need to do anything to help the defensive unit out. The team cannot rely on Myles Garrett to net them 20 points in a game. If they think they can, they should try him at tight end. I’m not sure there’s anything that man can’t succeed at.

Game Recap

Looking at the EPA, the Browns’ offense could not get anywhere against the Colts’ defense. The Browns were 14.9 percent  under their expected pass rate. For good reason, the Browns were putrid when passing. The subpar rushing attack was a significant upgrade. P.J. Walker played as expected for a backup inexperienced with the team and system to play. Walker is a fine backup quarterback, but the unfamiliarity between the quarterback and staff is arresting the offense. The Browns need to look for other replacements.The Browns’ defense allowed a lot of big plays. In the run game, Jonathan Taylor proved he’s healthy as he broke multiple tackles during big runs. The Browns’ passing defense had multiple miscommunications leading to the Colts having a big day through the air. The Browns’ defensive backs and linebackers could not handle seeing motion. It made them confused in zone defense as many of their problems from last season reappeared. The defense will start seeing more presnap shifts and motions until they can stop it.

Myles Garrett and the defensive line absolutely destroyed Gardner Minshew as the defense held the Colts to a 33rd-percentile EPA in spite of the explosive play rate.

Defensive Explosive Play Rate

(Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

The defense has done a successful job of preventing explosive plays. The Browns play a lot of single safety looks that are more vulnerable to explosive plays compared to two safety looks. The Browns really need to fix their communication issues in zone defense, before the Colts’ game becomes a trend.

Browns are in Tier 5 of the NFL

Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Browns have moved up a tier in the EPA-based model. The Browns’ defense continues to keep the team afloat in these rankings. If the offense begins to improve the Browns will slingshot into the upper echelon of teams.

QB Efficiency

Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The main culprits to the Browns’ offensive failures are really highlighted here. It’s unfortunate that P.J. Walker has been thrust into so much playtime that he can qualify for the charts examining the league. Walker’s unfamiliarity with the offense is obvious as he is the least successful quarterback on first and second down. Those are the downs that are the easiest for a quarterback.

Deshaun Watson needs to get healthy. He’s impossible to properly evaluate until he does. His results have been horrible. As we saw in the Colts’ game, the injury can make him play even worse. His health needs to be the priority of this team.

Offensive Series Results

The Browns’ offensive failings don’t lie solely at the quarterbacks’ feet. The running game has been better with the return of Kareem Hunt, but it still struggles. As a result, the Browns have one of the worst series results for offenses.  The Browns are in the bottom five in the league when it comes to getting a first down.

Browns are the hardest team to get a first down against

(Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

On the flip side of the coin, the Browns’ defense is shutting down opponents. The defense gets off the field quickly and they could get better if the offense can give the defense a time to rest.

PFF true pass blocking grades

Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

This table is great at evaluating how good linemen are at pass blocking. Using stricter criteria to focus on how well a unit does in obvious passing downs helps clean up messier data that includes play-action passes and RPOs. The Browns’ offensive line is pass-blocking well. Dawand Jones is doing an exceptional job at right tackle, while Jedrick Wills Jr. is having a career year. The injured guard unit is lagging a little behind but the veteran duo will eventually play better. It’s also worth noting the murders row of defensive tackles they have played against.

Trench Grades

Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

This graph is a combination of ESPN’s tracking data with PFF’s grading system. It’s interesting to see where the two services agree and disagree. The Browns’ defensive line grades from PFF on run plays do not line up at all with the objective tracking data.

Browns outside the top 10 pass rush groups

Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Browns’ pass rush group of Myles Garrett, Za’Darius Smith,  Ogbo Okoronkwo, and Dalvin Tomlinson are just outside the top 10 of the most effective pass-rushing groups. Hopefully, the unit gets more familiar with where each rusher is going, so they can herd the quarterback to those spots.

Browns playoff probabilities increases

Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

The Browns increased their chances of making the playoffs by 7% with their victory over the Colts according to the models at Sumer Sports. The Browns will be facing another serious playoff contender in the Seahawks on Sunday.

Browns drop in DVOA rankings

 

The Cleveland Browns dropped two spots in the DVOA rankings due to their offensive woes. The ranking has been the golden standard of analytics for over a decade. DVOA stands for “Defense-adjusted Value Over Expectation”. DVOA is published by FTNFantasy.

TEAM W-L TOTAL DVOA RANK TOTAL DVOA LAST WEEK NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA OFFENSE DVOA OFFENSE RANK DEFENSE DVOA DEFENSE RANK SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA SPECIAL TEAMS RANK
BAL 5-2 1 40.10% 6 32.30% 17.60% 5 -22.80% 2 -0.20% 18
SF 5-2 2 35.90% 1 36.70% 27.30% 2 -9.20% 6 -0.50% 20
KC 6-1 3 35.00% 5 36.70% 20.30% 4 -10.40% 5 4.20% 2
BUF 4-3 4 27.20% 3 31.60% 25.70% 3 -3.40% 13 -1.90% 24
DET 5-2 5 24.10% 2 21.30% 14.50% 6 -7.60% 9 1.90% 9
MIA 5-2 6 23.30% 4 29.90% 32.30% 1 5.90% 24 -3.20% 29
PHI 6-1 7 19.30% 7 16.90% 11.50% 9 -5.10% 10 2.80% 4
JAC 5-2 8 19.10% 8 10.30% 3.50% 13 -13.00% 4 2.50% 7
SEA 4-2 9 11.20% 10 17.10% 7.00% 10 -2.60% 16 1.60% 11
DAL 4-2 10 9.50% 11 19.90% -6.40% 18 -15.50% 3 0.40% 15
CLE 4-2 11 8.90% 9 4.50% -16.80% 29 -23.20% 1 2.50% 8

 

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