The first month of football is a wrap for the Cleveland Browns. It’s hard to believe that nearly a quarter of the season has passed. Personally, it has felt like half a season since the Steelers game. The game-time decision by Deshaun Watson to sit on Sunday has only added to the feeling of the interminable dredge of the offense. A month is long enough for season-long trends to become more evident when examining data.
Football is a difficult sport for data analytics as the sport has the least amount of games compared to other sports. Trends become extremely explicit over 38, 82, and 162 games in one season. Four games over a seventeen-game season does a good job of outlining the picture, even if it doesn’t paint it in detail.
Buy Browns TicketsIt’s important to remember that the Browns have suffered a lot of blows on offense over the first four weeks. Deshaun Watson looked good in his only game without inclement weather or the morale hit of witnessing a devastating injury to a team leader. I don’t want to make excuses for the Browns’ lackluster start on offense. I want to properly contextualize the offense.
Without further ado, here is the monthly data drop.
The offense needs to pick up the pieces
Ben Baldwin does great work in football analytics and is referenced here quite often. This chart defines the tiers in the NFL by a team’s defensive EPA and their offensive EPA.
The Browns offense is causing the team to lag behind the serious playoff contenders. The defense has done an excellent job in spite of a rough outing against the Ravens. They are still the number one defense according to expected points added.
–> Week 4 NFL Tiers <–
Seattle's defense says thank you for your service, Daniel Jones pic.twitter.com/wbgg5b7IE2
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 3, 2023
Quarterback efficiency needs an uptick
Quarterback efficiency vs. production is a useful stat as PFF grades can delve too far into hypothetical situations. Big-time throws to Turnover-worthy plays ratio is a good example of how subjective PFF can be. Adding EPA helps reel us back into reality.
As we can see Deshaun Watson is still playing around the middle of the pack. The Browns will need him back healthy if the team is to improve their early down pass efficiency. Watson needs to develop a repertoire with his wide receivers, and Stefanski must cultivate these relationships. But that can only happen with time on the field. In practice and in games. It cannot develop with players on the sideline.
Rushing and passing efficiency on early downs
The Atlanta Falcons are a very funny football team pic.twitter.com/YEByiMcC6h
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 3, 2023
Can Deshaun Watson play under pressure?
This chart tells how quarterbacks are doing against the blitz and without a blitz. Deshaun Watson’s play takes a nosedive when pressured. We see this in the games as he’ll drop his head and try to escape the pocket. He needs to play more to become comfortable out of structure like he was in Houston years ago.
Quarterback efficiency vs the blitz (y-axis) and vs non-blitzes (x-axis) this season. Probably wouldn't be a great idea for Brian Flores to blitz Mahomes too often this week given that he's averaging a 0.35 EPA/play and a 48% success rate against blitzes this year pic.twitter.com/WMYgikD7yb
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) October 3, 2023
Offensive line to blame for the lack of a run game?
I love the metrics combining ESPN’s location-based data with PFF’s graders for many of the same reasons I enjoy the mixed QB grade metric from earlier. ESPN’s location data gives credence to PFF’s graders, but it’s important to note where they differ.
It would be wrong to point the finger at the left tackle and the rookie right tackle for Deshaun Watson’s pressure rates. The entire line has done a good job in pass protection. They would make a bad scapegoat for the passing game. The offensive line is struggling mightily in the run game. They are constantly out of sync and blocking the wrong players. It’s an unheard-of problem under Brian Callahan’s regime.
Meanwhile, the defensive line has been absolutely dominant. The defensive end group is strong with a deep bench. The defensive tackles are wrecking teams in the run game despite the opinions of PFF graders.
All trench measures courtesy of PFF and ESPN
The NFC North is the division of offensive lines (ignore the Bears) pic.twitter.com/TnLBhmUdRw
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 3, 2023
Teams not throwing against the Browns
When looking at the defense it’s interesting to see that teams are passing against the Browns far less than expected. The Browns’ defense has defended a lot of leads, which would lead me to believe the passing rate would be higher against the Browns. However, offensive coordinators know the best way to neutralize Myles Garrett in the passing game is by running the ball away from him. Having a player of Garrett’s caliber has been a joy to watch all season.
Contextualizing this a little more, teams are passing on the 49ers about 6.6% more than expected this season. Also interesting to see offenses pass on the Lions as much as they have given they were a bottom 5 run D last year. That unit might be the most improved from '22-'23 https://t.co/kN2O9b8teS pic.twitter.com/QUXUEThcFJ
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) October 3, 2023
Jim Schwartz's unit is not surrendering first downs
The Cleveland Browns defense is doing the best job of getting teams off the field in a hurry. With the Browns offense in the bottom 10 in conversion rate, the Browns’ defense is doing this on very little rest. Hopefully, the offense can hit their stride and give the defense the break they deserve.
Series Conversion Rates on offense and defense
San Francisco's defense has been surprisingly mortal this year
The Chiefs might have a good defense! pic.twitter.com/yKW7GvFnAu
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 3, 2023
Where do the Browns fall in DVOA?
The Browns rank 10th in DVOA, one of the longest-standing team performance metrics. The Browns 24th best offense is dragging the team far lower than the team deserves. Hopefully, a healthy Deshaun Watson can propel the Cleveland Browns to a respectable level.
| TEAM(Click to sort ascending) | TOTAL DVOA RANK(Click to sort descending) | TOTAL DVOA(Click to sort ascending) | LAST WEEK(Click to sort ascending) | NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA(Click to sort ascending) | W-L(Click to sort ascending) | OFFENSE DVOA(Click to sort ascending) | OFFENSE RANK(Click to sort ascending) | DEFENSE DVOA(Click to sort ascending) | DEFENSE RANK(Click to sort ascending) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
1
|
59.1%
|
1
|
62.4%
|
3-1
|
30.0%
|
3
|
-27.3%
|
2
|
|
 |
2
|
47.7%
|
3
|
51.4%
|
4-0
|
36.8%
|
2
|
-8.8%
|
7
|
–
|
 |
3
|
35.2%
|
9
|
34.4%
|
3-1
|
20.3%
|
4
|
-13.6%
|
5
|
|
 |
10
|
11.8%
|
4
|
11.2%
|
2-2
|
-15.1%
|
24
|
-27.0%
|
3
|
