The midway point between games is a great time to take a step back from the disappointing loss against the Seattle Seahawks by the Cleveland Browns and examine the rest of the league. Football is a week-to-week sport and in that flow, we can forget that the sport lasts for nearly half a year. It’s important to take a 30,000-foot view of the league to better assess the landscape.
In Data Dump we aim to give you the weekly breakdown of where the Browns stand across the entire NFL among multiple categories. The Browns are standing pat at four wins after losing to the Seahawks 20-24. The loss showed that the Browns offense has steadily improved since losing star running back Nick Chubb and quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Browns are slowly regaining their offensive identity without their franchise players. The offense is still turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Under Watson’s leadership, the Browns should eliminate most of the turnovers.
The defense is the biggest victim of the turnovers. They’re constantly forced to defend shorter fields than other teams. While the Browns’ defense has done a good job limiting offenses, they are not invincible. They cannot continue defending 50 yards at a time. The season-long stats show how field positioning is dragging a historically great Browns’ defense into a top-three defense.
A Brief Look at the Seahawks Game
Looking back at the Seahawks game, the two most notable things are that the Browns’ offense hasn’t had a better showing since the Titans game. Meanwhile, the defense has never played worse. The Browns’ defense needs to limit explosive plays that have gashed them over the past two weeks.
NFL Week 8 – Advanced Stats Review
Seattle Seahawks 24 – Cleveland Browns 20 pic.twitter.com/fJTZIU3Zp8
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) October 30, 2023
Browns move up to tier 4
As the tier bands have widened into the season the Browns have moved from tier five to tier four since last week.
~~ 8 Weeks into the NFL Season~~
The Vikings finally got out of dead center for the first time in 5 years (exaggeration? maybe) only to have Cousins end his season
How do the Saints / Bucs / Packers still have average offenses
Week 14 Thursday Night Football: Pats/Steelers… pic.twitter.com/oxdWW6dvSz
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 31, 2023
QB Efficiency by Down
Early down and late down efficiency
Seahawks gotta figure things out on 3rd downs pic.twitter.com/8RjkCh0N5N
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 31, 2023
P.J. Walker has slightly improved his EPA in the early downs, but he’s unable to be productive in situations where the defenses are expecting passes. The Browns desperately need Deshaun Watson back.
Offensive and Defensive Series Results
Series conversion rates on offense and defense pic.twitter.com/g0JIPJUbqi
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 31, 2023
The series conversion rate is a good metric to identify how drives are going for teams. The Cleveland Browns’ defense is holding their opponents to a record-low rate of first downs. Meanwhile, the Browns’ offense is in the bottom five of the league.
4th Down Aggressiveness
How teams have been behaving on 4th downs this year
I appreciate the Eagles/Lions for always being in the same spot year over year
The Chiefs have been criminally conservative…again pic.twitter.com/agSiypYaF2
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 31, 2023
The Browns have been rather aggressive in their fourth-down decision-making despite the backup quarterbacks.
How is pass protection doing?
All trench measures from ESPN and PFF
Given their pass rush, how has the 49ers' defense been struggling so much? Is their secondary that bad? pic.twitter.com/dangSridF5
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 31, 2023
I love this graph to measure linemen’s play in all phases of the game. The metric combines PFF’s subjective grades with the GPS data from ESPN. The Browns’ defensive line is near the top in both run and pass situations. The offensive line is steadily improving in their rankings after starting the season off slowly.
Browns offensive line is top 10
ok Luke is right, glad I checked. Chiefs time to pressure in expected pass situations is #1 in the league, so it's likely a combo of him holding onto the ball too long and WRs not getting openhttps://t.co/Np4R385riw pic.twitter.com/LmTR3onzov
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) October 30, 2023
The Browns’ offensive line ranked in the top 10 when it comes to giving up pressures in expected passing situations. The Browns are averaging almost 2.5 seconds to pressure. Watson should take advantage of the Browns’ pass-blocking when he returns.
Browns move back in playoff predictions
The Browns have stumbled in the Sumer Sports’ playoff model after falling short to the Seattle Seahawks. The team still remains in third place amongst the AFC North teams. But a win by the Bengals over the 49ers helped them leapfrog the Browns in the rankings.
Playoff Probability Changes based on Week 8 results – Before MNF pic.twitter.com/g2y0s2tpAY
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) October 30, 2023
