A data analyst has shared the three obvious signs that will have been there “all along” if Donald Trump beats Kamala Harris in next week’s presidential election.
Harry Enten, CNN’s senior data analyst, this week set out the scenario for a Trump victory and outlined the key indicators for if that comes true.
Polls showing voter satisfaction with the direction of the country, President Joe Biden’s current low approval rating and Republican voter registration numbers are three crucial factors to consider in a potential Trump victory, according to Enten.
“The signs all along will have been obvious,” Enten explained.
“We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low, and Republicans really registering numbers.”
Only 28 percent of American voters believe the country is going in the right direction at the moment, according to Enten.
“I want to put that into a historical perspective for you. What’s the average percentage of the public that thinks the country is on the right track when the incumbent party loses? It’s 25 percent,” Enten said, citing polling from the Cook Political Report.
By comparison, the average voter satisfaction when the incumbent party wins is 42 percent, he added.
“I went back through history. There isn’t a single time in which 28 percent of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won,” he said.
The other two factors are Biden’s low approval rating and Republican registration voters.
Enten cited the numbers of new voters who are registering Republican in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.
“Republicans have been registering voters in big, huge numbers,” Enten said. “They have been gaining in party registration versus the Democrats in the swing states with party registration... So Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate.”
He added: “You can’t say you weren’t warned.”
The data analyst said he will also delve into the factors to look for if Harris wins.
