While a football match can be analysed using expected goal data, it doesn’t tell a clear story. When watching a game, you’re not considering decimal points and statistical models, but you might think “we deserved to win as we had more good chances than them.”
This was the case when Liverpool beat Southampton 3-1 at Anfield on Saturday. The visitors had three Opta-defined clear-cut chances (which are opportunities “where a player should reasonably be expected to score”), with the Reds thankful that Alisson Becker was in fine form to save two of them in the second half.
And Liverpool still deserved to win as they had six big chances of their own, making it an elite attacking performance. In only 20 of their 248 matches since the start of the 2018/19 season have they had at least that many, putting the Southampton victory into their top eight per cent of games by this measure.
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They were particularly on fire for the second two thirds of the first half. Between the 16 th and 42 nd minute, Liverpool had five clear-cut chances. When a team as good as the Reds ‘only’ averages 2.9 per game, to have five in 26 minutes is red-hot output.
The most notable aspect of this quintet of high value opportunities was that they all directly involved Darwin Nunez. The Uruguayan set up two and took three shots, converting two of his efforts to ensure Liverpool won the match.
For Liverpool to have five in a game is rare enough; it occurs in roughly one sixth of their matches. But for one of their players to either create or shoot that many has only occurred once in the previous four years.
It was, predictably enough, Mohamed Salah. His instance was in a much bigger match too, with the Egyptian contributing to five clear-cut chances in the Reds’ unforgettable 5-0 win at Old Trafford last season. Without undermining his effort in any way, Salah had been part of a successful team for four years at that point. What Nunez has already achieved this season, and in an inconsistent Liverpool side, has been remarkable.
Even before the Southampton game, he had been directly involved in four clear-cut chances in his Premier League debut at Fulham. Roberto Firmino has had three games since the summer of 2018 in which he contributed to at least that many big chances, while Sadio Mane had four across his final four season with the club. Nunez has already recorded two of them in his first 18 appearances for the Reds, only 10 of which have been starts.
As much as the volume is impressive, what really caught the eye was the variety of ways in which Liverpool’s number 27 was involved in the key attacking moments last weekend. He started by delivering a perfect cross for Salah, only for him to be thwarted by Saints’ goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu.
Nunez then received a gorgeous, flighted through-ball from Harvey Elliott, converting a first-time shot to give the young midfielder his first Premier League assist. Less than 10 minutes later, Darwin found Firmino nine yards from goal with a back-heeled pass. That the former Benfica man had been played in by Salah shows how well the front three were working together.
There was then a cross from Trent Alexander-Arnold which led to a saved header from Nunez, before he made no mistake when expertly assisted by Liverpool’s other full-back, Andy Robertson. The three clear-cut chance shots taken by the Reds’ biggest summer signing were taken with his left foot, head and right foot respectively. He really wasn’t far away from recording a perfect hat-trick.
And even though Nunez didn’t pick up an assist against Southampton, the two big opportunities he set up means he has the best pro-rata rate for creating clear-cut chances at the club this season. A home game against the Saints is not the toughest fixture on the schedule but based on the rarity of what Nunez delivered, the rest of the top flight needs to be wary of what he will offer after the World Cup.
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