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The next few days should help to clarify a few things on the quarterback market. And that’ll start with a negotiation between the Giants and QB Daniel Jones that ramped up in Indianapolis at the scouting combine. I actually would’ve told you a couple of weeks ago that it was going to be tough for the parties involved here to find a middle ground long-term deal before the start of the new league year in mid-March.
But now, one might be within reach. Compromise has gotten them closer. Here’s how …
• You’ve heard the numbers thrown around the past couple of weeks. First, it was that Jones’s camp (he switched agents from CAA to Brian Murphy of Athletes First after the season ended) was asking for $45 million per year. Then, it was that Jones wanted more than that. There’s some logic to what got them there—mostly that Jones played better last year than one quarterback making $46 million (Kyler Murray) and another making $49 million (Russell Wilson). The counterargument, of course, was that those were not models for other teams, but cautionary tales. Eventually, Jones’s side moved off that position.
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• The Giants had leverage with the $32.416 million franchise tag. Tagging Jones a second time in 2024 would cost $38.899 million. So they could argue, rightfully, that they could just use the tag to keep their 25-year-old quarterback for the next two years at less than $36 million per year. Of course, playing hardball, after the Giants admitted themselves that they couldn't create the right environment for Jones over his first three years, could jeopardize the team’s relationship with the first-rounder, at a time when everyone should be trying to build on the momentum of a breakthrough season. So New York’s been flexible.
• For the team, an important factor here is you’re paying for future performance, not the past three years of Jones. And that’s something Jones has to keep in mind, too. So if you believe, over the next four-or-so years that Jones and the Giants will ascend, with the quarterback having stability and the team seemingly the right coach and GM, then signing away the future means finding a deal that won’t age poorly. Getting close to (or maybe past) $40 million would give you a chance to avoid that, particularly with the chance that Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson reset the market this offseason.
Now, my understanding is that the Giants, as we said Friday, were between $35 million and $39 million per with their offers, and Jones’s side was still over $40 million. But the gap between the two isn’t the Gulf of Mexico. Also, the Giants have motivation to do it by the 4 p.m. ET Tuesday deadline to franchise-tag players because that would free up the tag for Saquon Barkley.
As for what this will mean for the rest of the market, well, it should have an impact. The Seahawks’ offer to Geno Smith, right now at least, isn’t in the neighborhood of where the Giants’ negotiation with Jones. So it stands to reason that Smith should wait to see if the Seahawks tag him Tuesday, and if not maybe test the market. Meanwhile, Derek Carr’s still out there (the numbers I’ve heard on him aren’t close to what we know about Jones), and Jimmy Garoppolo will be in a week.
Should be fascinating seeing how this all plays out, without a defined middle class of contracts for starting quarterbacks out there.
