The opening round of the 2024 NFL Playoffs saw some sterling performances. Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford went to battle in a duel between two players traded for each other and still capable of leading Super Bowl contenders. Baker Mayfield looked great against the defending NFC champions.
Jordan Love had the most efficient postseason debut in history, just barely edging out rookie CJ Stroud. Both led blowout, upset wins to advance to the Divisional Round of the postseason.
These stellar performances were balanced out by some season-ending clunkers. Dak Prescott’s Dallas Cowboys fell to earth en route to a 1-3 playoff record under head coach Mike McCarthy. Joe Flacco’s unexpected supernova came to a firey climax with a pair of pick-sixes while getting outdueled by Stroud. Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t good enough to keep the Miami Dolphins’ postseason win drought from aging into its third decade.
But who was truly the most disappointing among the worst quarterbacks this Super Wild Card weekend? We’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging each underwhelming performances was. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Wild Card EPA against their 2023 adjusted average, we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the first weekend of the 2024 postseason.
5
Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 5.1
Wild Card EPA: 0.2
Difference: 4.9 points worse
It feels like cheating to put Rudolph here. When you start the season behind Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky on the depth chart, expectations are effectively subterranean.
Even so, Rudolph made the most of his opportunity after getting the call to start Week 16. He won his final three games of the season, the Steelers snuck into a Wild Card bid and Mike Tomlin was given the chance to erase a seven year drought of playoff wins. Except, you know, his quarterback was Mason Rudolph.
He showed up and played replacement level football in Buffalo, which was roughly what was expected. His end zone interception to a backup, previously abused cornerback was worth -6.1 EPA on its own, so at the very least he deserves credit for not fully unraveling and making a 21-0 game at least mildly competitive.
KAIIR WITH THE INT‼️
📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/bhJ4dIGLfl
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 15, 2024
Still, this was a bland and forgettable game befitting a veteran backup. Rudolph stepped up when Pittsburgh needed him most. Then, when the playoffs came calling, he was decidedly Mason Rudolph.
4
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 11.1
Wild Card EPA: 4.4
Difference: 6.7 points worse
Prescott boosted this number dramatically in garbage time. He racked up 11.7 EPA after the Packers took a 48-16 fourth quarter lead, carving up a defense playing with a fraction of the intensity it brought in the first half.
That intensity pushed the MVP candidate to -7.3 EPA over the first three quarters as Green Bay pummeled the Cowboys into a hole impossible to climb out of. The Packers bullied CeeDee Lamb and Prescott failed to capitalize in the gaps left in the secondary’s zone coverage, leading to only seven first half points — points Dallas was lucky to get in what should have been a three interception first half.
.@darnellsavage_ TO THE HOUSE! 🏠
Pick-six! 🙌 #GBvsDAL | #GoPackGo
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/w0tPy1a68U
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 14, 2024
Lamb had only one catch that traveled more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in the air. It didn’t come until his team was trailing 48-24. Prescott threw seven deep balls (20-plus yards downfield) and completed one. For a player with a 2-4 postseason record — and a potential contract extension on the horizon — this was a complete disaster.
It also could have been enough to put Prescott behind the eight ball for 2024. Any seizmic shift in the coaching staff above him would mean a third offensive coordinator in three years. While he thrived with Brian Schottenheimer this fall, there’s going to eventually be a negative effect gleaned from swapping out his play callers each year.
Doubting Prescott has traditionally been a fool’s errand… until the postseason. That’s when the balloon he’d spent all season deflating takes to the sky once more, soaring majestically over the heights of another Cowboy collapse. We’re running out of reasons to believe things will be different in the future.
3
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 7.0
Wild Card EPA: -4.6
Difference: 11.6 points worse
Explaining to someone from January 2023 that Hurts got roundly outplayed, in a playoff game, by Baker Mayfield would be an incredible difficult conversation to have. Yet there was the erstwhile MVP candidate, futilely trying to chase down 2022’s worst starting quarterback in a 32-9 loss.
Monday night’s Wild Card loss was the culmination of everything that had fallen apart for the Eagles. They completed their 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers cosplay, wrapping their weeks-long collapse from the league’s best record with a damaging postseason loss to Mayfield. In the center of it all was a disheveled offensive line, a top-heavy receiving corps damaged by injury and Hurts, trying desperately to hold it all together.
SAFETY!!! 😳
📺: #PHIvsTB on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/rFlj59UzNi pic.twitter.com/0B4YZd9q3E— NFL (@NFL) January 16, 2024
Hurts stared down a secondary where four regulars have given up a 96.1 passer rating or worse and repeatedly failed to crack it open for big gains. Tampa blitzed him, leaving little room to operate and few open targets, particularly in the newly-vacated middle of the field.
Jalen Hurts was under pressure in under 2.5 seconds (i.e., quick pressure) 13 times against the Buccaneers defense, tying a career-high.
The Buccaneers generated 10 unblocked pressures, tied for the most in a game by any defense this season.#PHIvsTB | #RaiseTheFlags
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 16, 2024
He threw six passes that traveled more than 15 yards downfield. He completed one to set up Philly’s lone touchdown. 16 of his 25 completions came within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
Hurts wasn’t the sole problem during the Eagles’ 1-6 season-ending slide. He just wasn’t himself. His adjusted EPA dropped from 0.172 per play, seventh-best in the NFL, to 0.096, which ranked 16th. Philadelphia’s other problems began to shine through, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, and proved too heavy for an average quarterback to lift.
2
Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 2.2
Wild Card EPA: -16.8
Difference: 19 points worse
Flacco was always a high risk wager. His willingness to launch passes into the stratosphere and find targets — usually Amari Cooper or David Njoku — downfield proved a powerful complement to the Browns’ swarming defense. But those gutsy throws came with the kind of risk tolerance you get from a 38-year-old quarterback who was unemployed at Halloween.
Flacco’s “[expletive]-it” throws led to a career-worst 3.9 percent interception rate. They also led to a 4-1 record and four straight wins to lock in the AFC’s top Wild Card seed, so this was all acceptable.
2️⃣1️⃣2️⃣1️⃣2️⃣1️⃣ pic.twitter.com/YXXK1iLNQ5
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 13, 2024
Still, Flacco proved he can still be a useful quarterback and probably won’t go into November unemployed next season unless he wants to. Head coach Kevin Stefanski proved his play-action offense can be effective with just about anyone under center. And the Browns proved they can get to the playoffs with a guy signed off the street, roughly two years after trading three first round picks for a guy who faced more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct, then giving him an unprecedented, fully guaranteed $235 million extension before he could even play a disappointing down for Cleveland.
1
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 7.0
Wild Card EPA: -12.8
Difference: 19.8 points worse
There were some mitigating factors at play. Arrowhead Stadium was a frozen hellscape. The Dolphins’ offensive line was missing key contributors. Jaylen Waddle returned from injury but clearly wasn’t himself.
Even so. Ew:
The one deep completion — the lone touchdown the Dolphins scored all night — was the result of a pretty grim underthrow Tyreek Hill managed to settle under despite pass interference.
THERES GOES REEK FOR 53 YARDS! 🔥#MIAvsKC on Peacock
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/bTakd7vjlv pic.twitter.com/Y8D18DjJCv— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2024
Hill’s other seven targets generated nine yards of passing offense. 99 of Tagovailoa’s 199 passing yards came in the fourth quarter after the Chiefs had opened up a 19 point lead and extended their win probability over 99 percent.
This is all terrible timing for a beleagured quarterback. Tagovailoa proved he could stay healthy for 17-plus games, but it didn’t change the outcome of the Dolphins’ season. Miami was beaten in the Wild Card round, just like it was in 2022 when Tagovailoa missed multiple starts, including the playoffs, due to repeated head injuries.
The Dolphins finished 2023 on a 2-4 skid. In that stretch, Tagovailoa threw only six touchdowns while turning the ball over six times. His -0.007 EPA/play ranks 27th among all NFL starters in that span, behind Tyrod Taylor, Desmond Ridder, Aidan O’Connell and, phew, Jarrett Stidham.
That’s not the kind of ammunition Tagovailoa’s agents can take to the Dolphins’ front office and demand a top-of-the-line contract extension. 2024 will be the final season on the lefty QB’s rookie deal. Miami will have to decide whether it wants to commit massive cash to a 25-year-old who has never had a losing season as an NFL starter (32-19) but who also drags massive questions about his able to carry a team into each season.
