Cyclone Alfred has intensified to Category 2 as it barrels towards Australia’s southeastern coast, prompting evacuation orders and a state of emergency.
The storm is expected to make landfall on Thursday or Friday between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast and could be one of the most destructive in the region in decades, officials warned.
If it follows its projected path, Alfred will be the first cyclone to directly impact Brisbane since Nancy in 1990.
Forecasts indicate potential rainfall of 300-600mm, with some areas possibly receiving up to 700mm. Wind gusts are expected to exceed 120kmph, accompanied by large waves that may lead to coastal erosion and flooding.
Queensland premier David Crisafulli urged residents to “please be prepared” and ready “canned food and bottled water”.
“It is important that people take the event seriously, they stay up to date with warnings,” he said.
“We're dealing with a very heavily populated part of the state, a state that hasn't seen a cyclone for many years, in fact, many decades, get this close to the coast.”
KEY POINTS
- Cyclone Alfred intensifies to Category 2
- Australians urged to 'take event seriously' as evacuation warnings issued
- Heavy rainfall expected in Queensland and NSW
- Airlines offer free flight changes as Cyclone Alfred threatens Queensland and NSW
- Why Cyclone Alfred's landfall is rare and unusual
Cyclone Alfred wrecks man’s bid to row across Pacific Ocean
15:30 , Stuti MishraThe Australian Navy rescued a Lithuanian rower caught in tropical cyclone Alfred during his solo venture crossing the Pacific Ocean.
Aurimas Mockus, a 44-year-old adventurer, was 740km off the coast of Mackay in Central Queensland when he got caught in the path of the category one cyclone with winds gusting at 130kmph.
The vessel was attempting to row 12,000km from San Diego to Brisbane when it sent out distress signals after running into trouble on Friday night.
Read more from Alisha Rahman Sarkar.
Cyclone Alfred wrecks man’s bid to row across Pacific after rowing over 10,000km
Sandbags and empty shelves ahead of Cyclone Alfred
14:30 , Stuti MishraMillions of residents are bracing to survive for days without power and food supply as Cyclone Alfred comes closer.
Several grocery stores saw empty shelves on Tuesday as people stocked urgent supplies.
Residents were lining the boundaries of their homes with sandbags as heavy rainfall is feared to bring flooding on Thursday and Friday.
Cyclone Alfred latest forecast
13:30 , Stuti MishraTropical Cyclone Alfred continues its approach toward southeast Queensland, with landfall expected late Thursday or early Friday between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast as a Category 2 cyclone.
On Tuesday evening local time 6pm (8am GMT), Alfred was 600 kilometres east of the Queensland-New South Wales border, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
Cyclone Alfred is maintaining winds of around 100kmph, with gusts up to 150kmph.
The system, which had been moving southeast for several days, took a turn westward, getting directly on a path toward the Australian coast.
Authorities have expanded severe weather warnings across a large portion of eastern Australia. Heavy rainfall is expected to begin on Wednesday, intensifying Thursday and Friday, particularly near and south of Alfred’s crossing point.
Areas from the Sunshine Coast down to Coolangatta and Grafton are likely to receive several hundred millimetres of rain within 24 hours, leading to flash flooding and river flooding.
A flood watch has been issued from Bundaberg to Port Macquarie, with major flood levels possible in several rivers.
Wind gusts could reach 150kmph near and south of Alfred’s landfall, particularly affecting Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and parts of northern New South Wales.
Elevated inland areas, including the Northern Rivers and Northern Tablelands of New South Wales, may also experience damaging winds.
Storm surges are expected to peak on Thursday, particularly around Bribie Island, Moreton Bay, and parts of the Gold Coast. Large waves exceeding 10 metres could cause severe coastal erosion and hazardous surf conditions.
20,000 homes at risk of flooding in Brisbane, officials warn
12:30 , Stuti MishraBrisbane City Council has warned that 20,000 homes could be affected by flooding and storm surges as Cyclone Alfred turns towards the city.
“Residents at risk from significant storm surge and flooding are urged to consider relocating,” Mayor Adrian Schrinner said.
“Properties could experience anything from mild inundation in their yards to significant flooding in their homes."
The storm surge is expected to peak from Thursday with Cyclone Alfred’s projected landfall.
New council flood modelling has identified several high-risk suburbs, including Nudgee Beach, Brighton, Windsor, Ashgrove, Morningside, and Rocklea.
When and where will Cyclone Alfred make landfall?
11:30 , Stuti MishraTropical Cyclone Alfred is projected to make landfall between late Thursday and early Friday.
The anticipated impact zone spans from the New South Wales border to Noosa in Queensland, with a probable landfall near Bribie Island, just north of Brisbane.
Alfred intensified into a Category 2 storm on Tuesday morning, situated approximately 600 kilometres east of Brisbane and moving southwestward.
Upon landfall, it is expected to maintain Category 2 intensity, bringing wind gusts up to 120 kmph and substantial rainfall, with forecasts indicating potential accumulations between 200 to 400mm over a three-day period.
Residents in the projected path, including densely populated areas such as Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast, were advised to evacuate.
How Much Rain is Expected from Cyclone Alfred?
10:40 , Stuti MishraTropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to bring extreme rainfall to southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales, with meteorologists warning of potential life-threatening flooding in some areas.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), affected regions could see between 300 to 600mm of rain, with some areas possibly receiving up to 700mm.
The highest rainfall totals are expected south of the cyclone’s landfall, particularly in coastal and inland areas of Queensland and New South Wales.
Dr Tom Mortlock, a climate expert at Aon, warns that even areas not directly in the cyclone’s path could face significant flooding.
“The ‘Great Flood of 1954’ was caused by a cyclone that made landfall near the Queensland border. The rainfall risk from Alfred could be just as severe in some areas.”
Is climate change responsible for Cyclone Alfred's unusual path?
09:40 , Stuti MishraTropical Cyclone Alfred’s southern path has raised concerns among scientists, with experts questioning whether climate crisis is extending cyclone activity beyond traditional regions.
Associate professor Iftekhar Ahmed from the University of Newcastle explains that cyclones typically form in the tropics and warmer waters, but Alfred is moving further south than usual.
“Cyclone Alfred is predicted to impact northern NSW, which is generally not at risk for cyclones. The last cyclone warning here was more than 50 years ago,” Dr Ahmed said.
He suggests that rising global temperatures may be expanding the reach of tropical cyclones into areas that were previously considered safe.
“This could indicate that due to global warming, the reach of tropical cyclones is extending further than the tropics, requiring preparedness in areas where cyclones are unprecedented.”
While more research is needed to confirm whether Alfred’s track is directly linked to climate change, recent cyclones, like Jasper in 2023, have also taken unusual paths, prompting concern among meteorologists.
Dr Tom Mortlock, Head of Climate Analytics at Aon, warns that tropical cyclones reaching unusual territories, like in southeastern Queensland and northern NSW, pose a high risk due to unprepared populations and infrastructure.
“Most tropical cyclone risk actually resides in southeast Queensland. The probability is lower, but the risk, probability multiplied by consequence, is much greater,” Dr Mortlock said.
Scientists also point to warmer sea surface temperatures, that have been fuelling stronger hurricane and cyclones in recent years, and the warmth currently extend unusually far south.
“Right now, ocean temperatures are warm enough to sustain tropical cyclones down to Sydney, which is very unusual,” Dr Mortlock added.
Airlines offer free flight changes as Cyclone Alfred threatens Queensland and NSW
08:10 , Stuti MishraMajor Australian airlines are offering passengers the chance to change or cancel their flights without fees as Cyclone Alfred threatens to bring dangerous winds and rainfall.
Qantas, Jetstar, and Virgin Australia have introduced flexible travel policies for those flying to or from several airports in Queensland and New South Wales between 4-9 March.
Passengers can either reschedule their flights at no extra cost or receive a travel credit or voucher if they choose to cancel.
"We're closely monitoring Tropical Cyclone Alfred off the coast of Queensland. If your flight is impacted, we'll notify you by SMS using the number provided in your booking," Qantas said in a statement.
Passengers flying to or from Ballina, Brisbane, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Gold Coast, and Maroochydore can now make fee-free date changes for up to 14 days from their original travel date, subject to availability.
Jetstar has also offered similar flexibility, allowing changes for flights to and from Sunshine Coast (Maroochydore), Hervey Bay, Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Ballina Byron Bay.
"We understand that some customers may no longer wish to travel," Jetstar said on its website, encouraging passengers to take advantage of the free rebooking options.
Golf tournament and AFL matches cancelled ahead of Cyclone Alfred
07:10 , Stuti MishraTropical Cyclone Alfred has forced the cancellation of a major golf event and the postponement of AFL season-opening matches as it approaches Australia’s east coast.’
The WPGA Championship on the Gold Coast, co-sanctioned by the Ladies European Tour, was called off due to expected extreme wind and flooding.
"The decision has been made to ensure the safety of players, staff, fans and all stakeholders, which remains the priority," organisers said in a statement on Tuesday.
The AFL, the top flight of Australian Rules football, has also postponed two matches in southern Queensland, including Thursday night’s Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats game.
"Out of an abundance of caution, the AFL made the decision now to ensure the health and safety of clubs, players, officials... importantly - the wider southeastern Queensland and northern NSW community remains the priority," the AFL said in a statement.
The decision came after coaches urged the AFL to make an early call on the games."It sort of reminds me of the Covid situation," Geelong coach Chris Scott told Australian media.
"It's a bit unpalatable talking about when you prefer to play a game of footy when people are sandbagging their houses.
"The National Rugby League (NRL) match between the Dolphins and South Sydney Rabbitohs in Brisbane on Friday is also under review.
Football Queensland has suspended all training and matches in the state’s southeast. The Touch Football national championships in New South Wales have also been cancelled.
Cyclone Alfred is expected to make landfall late Thursday or early Friday, bringing intense rainfall, damaging winds, and life-threatening flash flooding to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.
Why Cyclone Alfred's landfall is rare and unusual
06:50 , Stuti MishraTropical Cyclone Alfred's approach to Australia's southeastern coast is seen as unusual mainly due to its anticipated landfall near Brisbane – this is a region rarely impacted directly by tropical cyclones.
Cyclones typically form in the warmer waters of northern Australia and often dissipate before reaching the cooler southern regions.
The last time a cyclone made direct landfall near Brisbane was in 1974, making Alfred's trajectory notably uncommon.
Alongside Queensland, New South Wales is also under cyclone warnings.
Such a forecast is also unusual for NSW, said Steven Bernasconi, the Bureau of Meteorology's manager of hazard preparedness.
“This is unusual for NSW... We don't often have tropical cyclone watches and warnings in the NSW jurisdiction,” Mr Bernasconi said.
Mapped: Cyclone Alfred's path
06:30 , Stuti MishraGold coast mayor warns Cyclone Alfred could be most significant system since 1954
06:00 , Stuti MishraGold Coast’s acting mayor Donna Gates said Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to be the most significant storm system since 1954.
"It’s not a good outcome for the Gold Coast, and there is growing concern that Cyclone Alfred is getting stronger as it approaches the coast," she told reporters a while ago.
She said while several parts of southeast Queensland are preparing for the cyclone, the city of Gold Coast was the "greatest concern".
Cyclone watch has spread from the Sunshine Coast to the Gold Coast, extending past Brisbane since yesterday, Gates said.
"We are expecting gale force winds on Thursday and Friday, accompanied by very heavy rainfall which won’t ease until Sunday."
Satellite view shows Alfred churning towards Australia's east coast
05:45 , Stuti Mishra
Video: Australian navy rescues adventurer struck by cyclone while rowing across Pacific Ocean
05:31 , Stuti MishraPeople begin evacuating voluntarily after official warnings
05:12 , Stuti MishraVoluntary evacuations have already begun in some areas, with authorities urging residents in flood-prone regions to leave before conditions worsen.
Acting Queensland police commissioner Shane Chelepy told reporters that some families have already chosen to evacuate, particularly on South Stradbroke Island. Meanwhile, emergency crews are door-knocking at-risk areas in the Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay, and Brisbane Bay regions to warn residents of potential dangers.
“If you decide to leave, you need to leave before the event starts impacting you. Go and stay with family and friends,” Mr Chelepy said.
“The worst time to make the decision to leave is when we’re in the middle of the event because [it] not only puts you at risk, but it puts the emergency services at risk who need to come and assist you.”
Cyclone Alfred could bring 80cm storm surges
04:43 , Stuti MishraThe Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has warned that Cyclone Alfred could bring tides at least half a metre higher than normal, with some areas potentially experiencing rises of up to 0.8 metres.
Sue Oates from the BoM explained that these predictions are based on the highest astronomical tide – the highest natural tide level a location can expect.
“With the Category 2 system coming in, and based on the best modelling guidance available to us, we’re anticipating at least half a metre above the highest astronomical tide, with slightly higher values closer to the cyclone’s centre,” Ms Oates said.
These higher-than-usual tides are expected to be most severe near the cyclone’s landfall, though exact locations remain uncertain. Coastal areas south of the cyclone’s centre will likely experience the biggest surges.
Heavy rainfall expected in Queensland and NSW
04:18 , Stuti MishraAlfred is bringing dangerous conditions to southeast Queensland and northern NSW, meteorologists said.
Forecasts indicate potential rainfall of 300-600mm, with some areas possibly receiving up to 700mm. Wind gusts are expected to exceed 120kmph, accompanied by large waves that may lead to coastal erosion and flooding.
“We are expecting very heavy rainfall, particularly along the coast,” senior meteorologist Laura Buchan said.
“Strong winds and large waves will also create hazardous surf conditions and we could see some coastal erosion.
Australians urged to 'take event seriously' as evacuation warnings issued
04:17 , Stuti MishraQueensland premier David Crisafulli has urged millions of residents to “please be prepared” and ready “canned food and bottled water” ahead of Cyclone Alfred's arrival.
“It is important that people take the event seriously, they stay up to date with warnings,” he said.
“We're dealing with a very heavily populated part of the state, a state that hasn't seen a cyclone for many years, in fact, many decades, get this close to the coast.”
People in flood-prone areas have been issued evacuation warnings ahead of the cyclone's arrival, particularly in low-lying areas.
“We're asking people who live on those islands to make a conscious decision … to either leave or stay,” said Mr Crisafulli.
“It is important they make that decision fairly soon because that window will close.”
Shane Chelepy, the state disaster coordinator, warned island communities east of Brisbane to leave now or “it will be too late”.
Cyclone Alfred intensifies to Category 2
03:54 , Stuti MishraCyclone Alfred has intensified to Category 2 as it barrels towards Australia’s southeastern coast, targeting the heavily populated south-east Queensland.
The storm, which is expected to make landfall on Thursday or Friday north of Brisbane, is packing wind gusts up to 130kmph.
Alfred could be one of the most destructive storms in the region in decades, officials warned. If it follows its projected path, Alfred will be the first cyclone to directly impact Brisbane since Nancy in 1990.
