Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made a glowing prediction about the National League Central at the GM meetings last month.
“You’ve really got five teams and have a lot of young talent,” Hoyer said. “I know the last few years, we haven’t been quite as talented as the East and the West in the National League, but I would expect that that’s going to shift.”
To win a division that’s bracing for a boost in young talent, the Cubs are going to have to be aggressive again this winter. And even with the expanded playoff format, winning the division is still the surefire path to the playoffs.
So far this winter, speculation about the top free agents, including Shohei Ohtani, has time and again included the Cubs as contenders. That’s a good start. But free agent and trade action should pick up at winter meetings next week.
Remember, last year during the winter meetings, the Cubs signed Cody Bellinger to a one-year “pillow contract” and Jameson Taillon to a four-year deal. Dansby Swanson also had a phone conversation with general manager Carter Hawkins that helped sway him toward choosing the Cubs.
The past couple weeks served as a precursor, with the starting pitching market moving early. The Cardinals reacted, making them among the busiest teams early in the offseason. St. Louis signed three starting pitchers — Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Sonny Gray — in the span of a week.
The Cardinals were the only team in the NL Central that MLB Pipeline had outside the Top 5 in its farm system rankings (No. 22) midway through last season. The division dominated, with the Pirates coming in second, immediately followed by the Brewers, Cubs and Reds, in that order.
“It’s gonna be a fascinating division over the next four or five years,” Hoyer said.
In his end of season press conference, Hoyer shifted the focus on the advantages of homegrown talent. He pointed to the impact second baseman Nico Hoerner, who the Cubs signed to a three-year extension in March, is poised to make on the club over the course of his career.
“Of course there are players that are in our system that we’ll use and trade to acquire other major leaguers,” Hoyer said. “But having a really good group of young players in the big leagues, there’s the youth, the energy of that; there’s the cost-controlled nature of it. You look around baseball, there’s a lot of young teams and really cost-efficient teams that played really well. So I don’t want to just think about those young players as the potential to go acquire other older major leaguers.”
Even so, a robust farm system strengthens a team’s position as a trade partner. The Cubs already leveraged that strength at the trade deadline this year, parting with promising prospects DJ Herz and Kevin Made to acquire Jeimer Candelario from the Nationals. Candelario hurt his back in the second half with the Cubs, but at the time he was the best available pending free agent hitter.
Now, talents like Juan Soto, an elite left-handed hitter, are expected to be available by trade this winter.
The Cubs’ offseason needs, whether they fill them via trade or free agency, include power hitting, bullpen help, first base. And they could always add to the rotation. As Hoyer often says, a team can never have too much pitching.
Some of those needs, like power hitting, are best filled with a big name. If the big-market Cubs are going to replace Bellinger’s offensive production and push past last season’s disappointing finish, they’re going to have to make a splash this winter. But there will always be less flashy signings and trades along the way.
For example, first baseman Rhys Hoskins could be a fit for the Cubs. And his agent Scott Boras said at the GM meetings that there was potential for a pillow contract, like the one Bellinger signed with the Cubs last year. Sidelined by a torn ACL in his left knee, Hoskins missed the 2023 season, but Boras said the first baseman built up “almost to be World-Series ready” in case the Phillies made it that far.
Teams’ plans will start to solidify next week at the winter meetings, as offseason action sorts out fact from speculation. The Cubs are also expected to make headway on finalizing the remaining openings on new manager Craig Counsell’s coaching staff.
