MIAMI — A majority of Cuban Americans in Miami Dade disapprove of President Joe Biden’s handling of key issues like the economy and Cuba policy and intend to overwhelmingly support Republican candidates in the midterm elections, according to a poll by Florida International University released Tuesday.
Just 30% of Cuban Americans living in the county support Biden, compared to the 42% who on average backed the president in national polls conducted in September. A strong majority (64%) of respondents to the FIU Cuba poll, a telephone survey of political attitudes in the Cuban American community that takes place every two years or so, also said they would back the reelection bids by Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio.
Florida’s governor could even get a higher percentage of votes from Cuban Americans by the time polls close on Nov. 8, as another 11% did not name candidates but said they would vote for the Republican on the ballot for governor. Even 15% of those who identified as Democrats said they would vote for DeSantis. Only the Cuban Americans not born in Cuba expressed less-than majority support for the governor (44%).
Still, more Cuban American voters (37%) said they would prefer ex-President Donald Trump to run for president in 2024, with 21% saying they would like to see DeSantis on the ballot.
“Miami-Dade is becoming a purple county,” said Guillermo Grenier, the poll director and professor at the Department of Global and Sociocultural Studies at FIU. “The Republican Party maintains a dominance well beyond the voter registration numbers.”
The poll was conducted between July 27 and Sept. 11 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. One-thousand Cuban Americans were contacted through landlines and cellphones and interviewed in English or Spanish. Of those, 86.6% said they were citizens and could vote. Questions about elections were only asked to eligible voters.
While they only make up 0.7% of the country’s population, Cuban Americans hold special power in Florida, where they count as 7% of the state’s residents, and especially in Miami Dade, where they comprise 35.6% of the people living in the county. The FIU pollsters estimate that there are 497,155 registered voters of Cuban origin in Miami-Dade and 735,073 in all of Florida.
They are also highly dependable voters. A whopping 94% of those interviewed said they will “definitely” or “probably” go to vote in the November elections.
As in past editions, the FIU poll continues to capture the complexity of the political thinking of Cuban Americans. Most support the range of policies currently maintained by the Biden administration, from the sanctions that put pressure on the Cuban government to measures trying to help the population. Yet, when the question is framed differently, and they are asked if they support Biden’s policy toward Cuba, they say they don’t.
A large majority of Cuban Americans (69%) said they favor hard-line policies aimed at regime-change on the island. Most also said they agree with policies designed to improve the economic well-being of the Cuban people (60% in favor).
Support for the embargo has grown since the previous edition of the poll in 2020, from 54% to 57%, as conditions on the island have worsened in the past two years. Cuba’s economy has reached new lows and the government is cracking down on dissenters. Still, 62% of those interviewed said the embargo “has not worked.”
A slim majority (52%) oppose unrestricted travel to the island and believe Cuba “poses a threat to vital American interests.” The younger population, those born outside Cuba, registered Democrats and those who emigrated recently are the most eager to support lifting travel restrictions.
A majority of respondents also strongly support steps taken by the Biden administration earlier this year to increase immigration visa processing in Havana (80% support), restart a family reunification parole (91%) and restore direct flights to cities other than Havana (70%).
Likewise, the community backs other policies that entail some engagement with Cuba but are perceived as benefiting the population, such as selling food (61% in favor) and medicine (69%), which are authorized under the current embargo.
But Biden doesn’t seem to benefit from the alignment between his Cuba policy and the opinions of Cuban Americans, as he got poor reviews on all issues polled but his COVID-pandemic policies, which 54% of interviewees favored.
Only 25% of those surveyed think he has done a good job handling the economy and policies toward Cuba. He got similarly low scores for his policies toward China (25%), Russia (30%) and the war in Ukraine (35%).
The president finds majority support only among registered Democrats and those who have recently emigrated. Most of those who have come to the United States since 2015 rate his overall performance extremely favorably (64% favorable).
The pollsters suggest that over the years, fluctuations in support for specific policies regarding Cuba can be explained by looking at the policies proposed by each administration.
“Cuban Americans in South Florida follow the lead of strong leadership in Washington, whether the leadership proposes engagement or isolation,” the report said. “A strong status quo bias seems to govern the attitudes of the community, and the status quo is established by Washington. Given the reluctance of the Biden administration to alter many of the Trump era policies and narratives, it is not surprising that Cuban Americans continue to express attitudes which reflect the status quo.”
But without further research, it is hard to know if voters follow the lead of the White House or White House officials, aware of the influence of Cuban American voters in Florida, take cues from the attitudes in the community to develop their policies or even if the dynamic could go both ways.
Overall, the poll confirms the trend of Cuban Americans becoming more conservative. The Democratic Party, the poll report says, “has made little headway into the Cuban American community over the last few years,” with most recent arrivals also joining the Republican Party.
Fifty-two percent of those asked in the survey identified as Republican, more than twice those who said they were Democrats, 21%. One-third of respondents said they were independent.
While Trump and DeSantis are clearly favorites to run for president in two years among Cuban Republicans, the preferences are less clear among Democrats, who are divided among several national figures, including former President Barack Obama, who cannot run again under the U.S. Constitution.
“It’s impressive the amount of disorganization in the Democratic Party,” Grenier said, commenting on the results.
The FIU survey results add to recent polling suggesting Republicans have made inroads into Hispanic voters. A Telemundo/LX News poll found that most Hispanic voters favor DeSantis, and that he was on track to win over Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade.
While the FIU poll results are good news for Republicans, the pollsters note that voter turnout will influence what happens in November.
“As has been the case in Florida for the last decade, the ultimate results of all political races will depend on voter turnout,” the report says. “The Democrats are motivated, and the odds might change because of this as we approach the election.”
For the first time, the survey also included questions about social media "influencers" and how much they might sway opinions about Cuba and politics in general.
According to the poll, social media has outpaced television as the primary news source for most respondents (37% versus 32%). More than half of respondents between 18 and 39 said they got their news about Cuba from social media (54%) and 29% in the same group said "influencers" indeed somewhat influenced their political views.
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