KEY POINTS
- From odds of around 33% last week, chances for a US recession this year have hit 54% on the platform
- One Polymarket bettor said it was a good choice to 'always bet against America'
- Some are questioning whether Trump was 'deliberately' working to crash global stock markets
Cryptocurrency bettors on decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket on Thursday raised the chances of a U.S. recession in 2025 as high as 54%, highlighting increasing concerns over the United States' economy amid President Donald Trump's new global tariffs.
In the Polymarket event contract, Thursday's figures were the highest yet since the contract's creation. The numbers also represent a staggering 35% spike as crypto bettors raised doubts on whether the U.S. president's economic strategy is working or not.
Polymarket Bettors Blast Trump's Tariffs, Calling Him a Traitor
Under the event contract's comments section, many crypto users expressed frustration over the Liberation Day tariffs that the Trump administration announced this week.
The tariffs are expected to hurt American wallets at the onset of the duties since the first instance will be paid for by U.S. importers.
For many crypto bettors on Polymarket, the blame is completely on the U.S. president, who has repeatedly insisted that his tariffs were a way to re-balance the supposedly imbalanced trade practices that other countries have with the world's largest economy.
"How much more tariffing can he even do?" said one user, while another pointed out that months ago, people who said "Trump will crash the economy" were getting laughed at. "Who's laughing now?" the user asked.
"Trump is a traitor to America," said another Polymarket user, and another said it was best to "always bet against America."
On the other hand, some users were supportive of Trump's tariffs, saying he will re-negotiate the duties "then remove the excess ones," which will then prevent a U.S. recession.
One user said crypto bettors should "never bet against America," and some suggested Trump was trying to "deliberately" crash global stock markets with his trade war.
At the end of March, odds for a U.S. recession were as low as 33%, but after the new tariffs were announced, the numbers saw dramatic spikes in the last few days.
Will Trump Make Concessions?
Trump has stepped up the trade war since he came into power in January, and even with some Americans still hoping he would be willing to make concessions to avoid a recession, it appears there's no stopping him at this point.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Thursday that he believes there's no chance the U.S. president will roll back tariffs.
"I don't think there's any chance that President Trump is going to back off his tariffs. This is the reordering of global trade. That's what's going to happen, but the world should stop exploiting the United States of America," he said.
