KEY POINTS
- Polymarket bettors believe Japan has the highest odds of securing a deal with Trump before the tariff pause expires
- South Korea is second in line, with as high as 76% chances, and Vietnam is in third place, with 71% odds
- China and Canada are among the countries with the lowest odds of sealing a trade deal with Trump
Cryptocurrency bettors on decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket believe Japan has the highest odds of securing a trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump before July as the world waits for how Trump's global tariffs will affect financial markets further.
Last week, Trump said there was "big progress" in tariff talks with the Japanese government in terms of trade. The Japanese side also said the U.S. leader has committed to prioritizing a deal with the Asian tech powerhouse.
Such positive news from both sides could have played a role in the spike in odds on Polymarket. Trump has announced a 90-day pause on the new global tariffs, and without a deal, the tariffs are expected to impose a huge blow on countries facing hiked duties starting early July.
Polymarket Bettors Think Japan Will Snag a Deal
As per late Sunday, the Polymarket event contract showed that crypto bettors believe Japan has a staggering 90% chance of securing a deal with the Trump government before July.
South Korea, which is under political turmoil following the ousting of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, has 76% odds, as per the $927,000 event contract.
For crypto users on the platform, Vietnam has a 71% chance of getting a deal, while United Kingdom has 69% odds, Argentina has a 67% chance, and U.S. close ally Israel has 66% odds.
Why is Japan a Frontrunner?
While Trump has shown little signs of softening his stance on duties levied on Japanese goods, specifically on automobiles, Japan has expressed hopes of expediting talks to get a deal as soon as possible.
Japan has sought to keep talks within the scope of trade, but Trump has thrown in a long-time issue between the countries: military.
Trump wants Japan to pay more to host American forces as he believes that a post-World War II agreement between the countries over U.S. troops hosting was "so one-sided."
Japan's eagerness to secure a deal and the potential for the small nation to compromise on Trump's military demands may pave the way for a trade agreement, especially as the tariffs are affecting Japan's auto industry – a sector that accounted for nearly 30% of its total U.S. exports by value in 2024.
Countries With the Lowest Odds
Meanwhile, Polymarket crypto bettors believe these countries have the lowest chances of getting a trade deal with Trump before July:
- Canada – 57%
- Brazil – 45%
- China – 36%
- Germany – 33%
- France – 29%
Two nations stand out in the list: Canada and China.
Canada is in the lower tier most likely due to its refusal to give in to Trump's demands, especially as Liberal leader Mark Carney said he will "fight against these tariffs" even as the duties begin to bite Canadian jobs.
China has made similar comments, but the U.S.-China trade war goes much deeper than what the United States has had with its direct neighbor.
Beijing has even warned other countries moving to "appease" Washington in the trade war. The world's second-largest economy and America's greatest economic rival, promising to take "reciprocal countermeasures" if other nations secure a deal with the U.S. "at the expense" of China.
Why Polymarket is Busy These Days
Crypto holders have been watching the Trump trade war closely as tariff announcements have apparently affected crypto prices in recent weeks.
For instance, Bitcoin took a nosedive to $75,000 shortly after Trump announced new China tariffs, highlighting the vast reach of the tariff impact.
Such market movements among crypto's most valuable assets have drawn crypto bettors to platforms like Polymarket, where they express their insights on the trade wars through betting their cryptocurrencies.
