AI may dominate San Francisco these days, but fintech and crypto are eagerly waiting in the wings. On Tuesday night, we gathered a small group of executives and investors from companies like Coinbase, Plaid, Brex, and Haun Ventures to discuss the critical juncture for the two sectors, and whether a Trump-induced victory lap could still mean choppy waters ahead.
The attendees had plenty to celebrate. The Trump administration’s Securities and Exchange Commission is dropping lawsuits left and right, including against Coinbase, and the hollowed-out Consumer Financial Protection Bureau seems soon to follow. Everyone still expects the IPO window to open back up, and a more welcoming environment for acquisitions will bring desperately needed liquidity to venture firms and their investors. Crypto, and fintech more broadly, have reason to be optimistic for the first time in years.
But any rational participant in the fintech industry with a barely functioning memory knows what frothy times—and a lack of guardrails—inevitably bring. The dinner was Chatham House rules, which means I sadly can’t quote anybody, but I can report that topics of conversation ranged from the proliferation of memecoins (including the President and First Lady’s recent mintings) to the consequences of DOGE’s crusade to fire every competent employee with a working knowledge of the government’s tech stack.
More than anything, the prevailing sentiment was uncertainty. Nearly everyone in crypto agrees that the most promising development for the technology, aside from reckless gambling, is stablecoins, coupled with real hope that Washington is on the brink of passing legislation. But now that the industry no longer has a common enemy in Gary Gensler, in-fighting between different firms that have spent tens of millions on donations and lobbying could upend long-simmering efforts. That’s assuming that presidential administrations rugpulling their citizens with memecoins doesn’t tank the industry’s rebound first.
And even if the IPO window opens back up, the economic outlook is murky, in no small part thanks to Trump’s frenetic approach to policy-making. The moment for fintech has arrived. But even for some of the top minds in the industry, what happens next is anyone’s guess.
See you tomorrow,
Leo Schwartz
X: @leomschwartz
Email: leo.schwartz@fortune.com
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