If countries fail to step up their climate policies, the world could warm by a huge 3.1C this century – leading to “catastrophic” increases in extreme weather events including heatwaves and floods, the UN’s environmental agency has warned.
Even if all existing pledges to cut emissions were fully implemented, temperatures would still rise by at least 2.6C above pre-industrial levels – far beyond the 1.5C goal laid down in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
This would have devastating impacts with worsening heatwaves, wildfires, storms, droughts and floods, the UN said in its annual Emissions Gap report, released Thursday.
"Climate crunch time is here," said UNEP director Inger Andersen. “We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before, starting right now before the next round of climate pledges."
Without action to make swift and dramatic emission cuts, "the 1.5C goal will soon be dead".
The warning serves as a wake-up call, just a few weeks before political leaders gather in Azerbaijan for the Cop29 climate summit.
Human factors
The report says that countries must collectively reduce emissions by 42 percent by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to keep global temperatures within 1.5C.
But the new data showed that global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.3 percent last year, with human activities generating 57.1 billion tonnes of CO2.
"We've observed a trend towards slowing down, moving towards a plateau in emissions, but they are still increasing," the report’s chief editor, Anne Olhoff, told RFI.
Despite the massive deployment of renewable energy, "economic growth is pushing energy demand upward" while fossil fuel use remains high, she said.
"The efects of climate change are also impacting the ability to provide low-carbon energy. For example, droughts have affected hydroelectric production."
The G20 group of major economies, which accounts for about 80 percent of global emissions, bears particular responsibility for driving reductions, the report said.
Seven G20 nations, including China and India, have yet to reach their peak emissions. China remains the world's largest emitter, responsible for 30 percent of global emissions, followed by the United States at 11 percent.
Energy-related CO2 emissions hit record levels in 2023, says IEA
More investment needed
The report estimates that emissions could be cut by up to 31 gigatonnes by 2030 through existing technologies and measures. Solar and wind power alone could deliver 27 percent of needed reductions by 2030.
However, this will require a massive increase in investment, between $900 billion and $2.1 trillion annually until 2050.
Countries have agreed to submit new carbon cutting plans, known as nationally determined contributions, by February 2025 – ahead of the Cop30 summit in Brazil.
