December WTI crude oil (CLZ24) Tuesday closed up +0.08 (+0.12%), and December RBOB gasoline (RBZ24) closed up +0.0073 (+0.37%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices Tuesday recovered from 1-1/2 week lows and closed slightly higher. Mild short-covering emerged in crude oil Tuesday after the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reported that due to post-tropical Cyclone Rafael, US Gulf of Mexico crude production has fallen by -2.71 million bbl since November 6. Crude prices Tuesday initially moved lower after the dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a 4-1/4 month high. Also, global energy demand concerns are bearish for crude after OPEC cut its oil demand growth forecast for this year for the fourth consecutive month.
A supportive factor for crude is an increase in the crude crack spread, which rose to a 2-1/2 month high Tuesday. The higher crack spread encourages refiners to boost their crude purchases and refine the crude into gasoline and distillates.
Global energy demand concerns are undercutting crude prices after OPEC today cut its 2024 global oil consumption forecast to 1.8 million bpd, -107,000 bpd lower than last month's forecast, and the fourth consecutive month the cartel has reduced its crude demand estimates.
Crude demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to Chinese customs data, China Oct crude imports fell -2% m/m and -9% y/y to 44.7 MMT, and crude imports year-to-date are down -3.4% y/y at 457.074 MMT. China is the world's second-largest crude consumer.
Concerns that Middle East hostilities could escalate are bullish for crude when Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of a "crushing response" to Israel's recent air strikes on Iran. An escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel could widen the conflict in the Middle East and disrupt the region's crude supplies.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -0.4% w/w to 61.78 million bbl in the week ended November 8.
An increase in Russian crude exports is bearish for crude. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +260,000 bpd to 3.42 million bpd in the week to November 10. Separately, Russia's Energy Ministry reported on October 23 that Russia's Sep crude production was 8.97 million bpd, down -13,000 bpd from Aug and just below the 8.98 million bpd output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of November 1 were -4.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -5.9% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending November 1 was unchanged w/w at a record 13.5 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending November 8 were unchanged at 479 rigs, just above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
