April WTI crude oil (CLJ25) today is up +0.21 (+0.31%), and April RBOB gasoline (RBJ25) is up +0.236 (+1.10%).
Crude oil prices today climbed to a 1-1/2 week high and are mildly higher. Today's dollar weakness is bullish for crude prices. Crude is also climbing on heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East that could lead to a disruption of crude supplies from the region after the US launched strikes against Houthi Rebels in Yemen for attacking shipping in the Red Sea. Gains in crude are limited by hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine, with President Trump set to speak with Russian President Putin this week as Mr. Trump pushes for an end to the three-year conflict.
Crude prices are finding support today from rising tensions in the Middle East, which could lead to disruption of supplies from the region. The US launched weekend strikes on Yemen's Houthi rebels, and Defense Secretary Hegseth said strikes will be "unrelenting" until the group stops attacking vessels in the Red Sea.
Today's global economic news was mixed for crude prices. On the positive side, China Feb industrial production rose +5.9% year-to-date, stronger than expectations of +5.3% year-to-date. Also, China Feb retail sales rose +4.0% year-to-date, stronger than expectations of +3.8% year-to-date. Conversely, US Feb retail sales rose +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m. Also, the US Mar Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions fell -25.7 to a 14-month low of -20.0, weaker than expectations of -1.9. In addition, the US Mar NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -3 to a 7-month low of 39, weaker than expectations of no change at 42.
A bearish factor for crude was Sunday's action by Goldman Sachs to cut its year-end WTI crude price forecast to $67 a barrel from $72 and lower its 2025 global oil demand forecast by 18% to 900,000 bpd, citing a slowing global economy from tariffs and the OPEC+ plan to increase production.
On the bearish side of oil prices, the markets remain concerned that US tariffs and retaliatory tariffs will curb global growth and undercut energy demand.
Ramped-up Russian oil exports are negative for crude prices after data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa showed Russian Feb oil products exports reached a 1-year high of 2.5 million bpd.
Crude prices were undercut when OPEC+ said on March 3 that it would restart some halted crude output in April, adding 138,000 bpd to global supplies. That is the first of a series of monthly hikes to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, which will gradually restore a total of 2.2 million bpd. OPEC+ had previously planned to restore production between January and late 2025, but now that production cut won't be fully restored until September 2026. OPEC Feb crude production rose +320,000 bpd to a 14-month high of 27.35 million bpd.
In a supportive factor for crude oil prices, the US on January 10 imposed new sanctions on Russia's oil industry that could curb global oil supplies. The measures targeted Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftgas, which exported about 970,000 bpd of Russian crude in the first 10 months of 2024, accounting for about 30% of its tanker flow, according to Bloomberg data. The US also targeted insurers and traders linked to hundreds of tanker cargoes. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by -45,000 bpd to 3.48 million bpd in the week to March 9.
Crude oil demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to Chinese customs data, China's 2024 crude imports fell -1.9% y/y to 553 MMT. China is the world's biggest crude importer.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -20% w/w to 60.89 million bbl in the week ended March 14.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of March 7 were -5.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +1.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -4.8% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending March 7 rose +0.5% w/w to 13.575 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending March 14 rose +1 rig to 487 rigs, mildly above the 3-year low of 472 rigs posted on January 24. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
