January WTI crude oil (CLF24) this morning is down -0.32 (-0.42%), and Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF24) is down -0.0032 (-0.15%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are moderately lower. Crude prices are under pressure on global energy demand concerns after today's economic news showed U.S. and Japanese manufacturing activity contracted more than expected. Today's weaker dollar limits losses in crude, along with news that OPEC+ is close to resolving a dispute over output quotas that forced the group to postpone its monthly meeting.
Today's global manufacturing news was worse than expected and bearish for energy demand and crude prices. The U.S. Nov S&P manufacturing PMI fell -0.6 to 49.4, weaker than expectations of 49.9. Also, the Japan Nov Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI fell -0.6 to 48.1, the steepest pace of contraction in 9 months.Crude prices recovered from their worst levels today after delegates said OPEC and its partners are reviewing the demands made by Angola and Nigeria, who want higher crude production levels than what the other OPEC+ members were willing to agree to. The rift among OPEC+ members about production levels reduces the likelihood that the group will extend their crude output cuts or make deeper cuts when they meet on Nov 30.
Expectations for increased travel in the U.S. over the Thanksgiving holiday are supporting fuel demand and crude prices. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA) forecast, 55.4 million Americans are expected to travel 50 miles or more from home over the holiday, the third most in records from 2000.
An increase in crude in floating storage is bearish for prices. Monday's weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +24% w/w to 87.987 million bbl as of Nov 17.
Increased crude consumption in India, the world's third largest crude consumer, is bullish for oil prices after India's oil product consumption in October rose +3.7% y/y to 19.3 MMT, the highest five months.
An increase in Russian crude exports is bearish for oil prices. Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows 3.2 million bpd of crude was shipped from Russian ports in the four weeks to Nov 12, near the highest in four months.
The tightness in the oil market is expected to continue due to the extension of OPEC+ production cuts. Saudi Arabia recently said it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through December. The move will hold Saudi Arabia's crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years. Russia also recently announced that it would maintain its 300,000 bpd cut in crude production through December. OPEC Oct crude production was little changed, rising +50,000 bpd to 28.08 million bpd.
Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Nov 17 were -0.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -13.7% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Nov 17 was unchanged w/w at a record high of 13.2 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported Wednesday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Nov 24 were unchanged at 500 rigs, modestly above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10. The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
