Sep WTI crude oil (CLU24) today is down -1.62 (-2.07%), and Sep RBOB gasoline (RBU24) is down -3.42 (-1.45%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices today fell to 1-week lows. A lack of retaliation thus far by Iran against Israel has taken some of the risk premium out of crude prices. Crude prices extended their losses today on the weak US housing starts report, which was negative for the energy demand outlook. Dollar weakness today is a supportive factor for energy prices.
Weaker-than-expected global economic news today was mostly bearish for energy demand and crude prices. US July housing starts fell -6.8% m/m to a 4-year low of 1.238 million, weaker than expectations of 1.333 million. Also, US July building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -4.0% m/m to a 4-year low of 1.396 million, weaker than expectations of 1.425 million. In addition, the Japan Jun tertiary industry activity index unexpectedly fell -1.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. On the positive side for crude oil prices, the University of Michigan's Aug US consumer sentiment index rose +1.4 to 67.8, stronger than expectations of 66.9.
Crude prices have support from fears of an attack by Iran against Israel in response to last month's assassination of a Hamas leader by Israel in Iran, which could escalate the conflict in the Middle East and disrupt the region's crude oil supplies. Israel's military continues to conduct operations in Gaza, and there is the risk that the war might spread to Hezbollah in Lebanon or even to a direct conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.
Signs of weaker US gasoline demand have prompted several US refiners to reduce refining operations, a bearish factor for crude prices. Marathon Petroleum, the owner of the largest US refinery, said it plans to cut its refining capacity rate to 90% this quarter, the lowest for a Q3 since 2020. Also, PBF Energy said it was cutting its refining capacity utilization rate to a three-year low, and Phillips 66 said it would cut its capacity rate to a two-year low.
Increased Russian crude production is negative for oil prices after Russia's Energy Ministry reported last Friday that Russia's July crude production was 9.045 million bpd, about 67,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
An increase in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bearish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose by +12% w/w to 66.11 million bbl in the week ended August 9.
OPEC+ rolled out a plan to restore some crude production in Q4, which sparked worries about a glut in global oil supplies. On June 2, OPEC+ extended the 2 million bpd of voluntary crude production cuts into Q3 but said they would gradually phase out the cuts over the following 12 months, beginning in October. OPEC pledged to extend its crude production cap at about 39 million bpd to the end of 2025. Also, the UAE was given a 300,000 bpd boost to its production target for 2025. In June, OPEC crude production fell -80,000 bpd to 26.98 million bpd.
Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of August 9 were -4.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -7.5% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending August 9 fell -0.7% w/w to 13.3 million bpd, falling back from the record high of 13.4 million bpd from the week of August 2.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending August 9 rose +3 to 485 rigs, modestly above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
