January WTI crude oil (CLF24) this morning is up +2.18 (+3.05%), and Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF24) is up +5.55 (+3.60%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning rallied sharply to 2-week highs. The main bullish factor for crude oil today is geopolitical risks after several major oil shippers stopped shipping crude oil through the Red Sea because of attacks on ships in the region. Also, today's rally in the S&P 500 to a 23-month high shows confidence in the economic outlook that supports energy demand and crude prices.
Geopolitical risks are bullish for crude prices after BP joined Equinor and Euronav in halting shipments of crude oil on tankers through the Red Sea because of increasingly frequent attacks on ships in the region. The attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East are forcing shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting crude oil supplies. At least twelve merchant ships have been attacked or approached around Yemen by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea since Israel's war with Hamas broke out in October.
Strength in the crude crack spread is supportive of crude prices. The crack spread today climbed to a 2-1/2 month high, encouraging refiners to boost their crude purchases and refine the crude into gasoline and distillates.
A supportive factor for crude was last Monday's projection from the American Automobile Association (AAA) that a record 7.5 million people are expected to fly from Dec 23 to Jan 2, the most since the AAA began tracking the data in 2000.
Crude prices last Tuesday plunged to a 5-3/4 month low as an increase in Russian crude exports undercut oil prices. Tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg shows refined fuel shipments climbed to 3.2 million bpd in the four weeks to Dec 10, up +114,000 bpd from the prior week and the highest five months.
On Nov 30, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by -1.0 million bpd through June 2024. However, crude prices sold off on the news since no details were provided on how the cuts would be distributed among members nor how Russia's -300,000 bpd export cut would factor into the new totals. Delegates said the final details of the new accord, including national production levels, would be announced individually by each country rather than in the customary OPEC+ communique. The market was disappointed that the extra cuts in OPEC crude output will be announced by each individual country, which suggests the reductions may only be voluntary.
Saudi Arabia said on Nov 30 that it would maintain its unilateral crude production cut of 1.0 million bpd through Q1-2024. The move would maintain Saudi Arabia's crude output at about 9 million bpd, the lowest level in three years. Russia also said it will deepen its voluntary oil export cuts by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in Q1 of 2024. OPEC Nov crude production fell -140,000 bpd to 28.050 million bpd.
The rift between Angola and other OPEC+ members remains and is a bearish factor that signals more infighting among members. Angola OPEC governor Pedro said on Nov 30 that his country rejects OPEC's quota and "Angola will produce above the quota determined by OPEC." Angola is Africa's second-largest crude producer, and OPEC governor Pedro said his country will pump 1.18 million bpd in January, above the 1.11 million quota set out by OPEC.
Weak demand for crude in China, the worlds biggest crude importer, is bearish for prices. China Nov crude imports were 42.45 MMT, down -13% m/m from Oct and a 7-month low.
A decline in crude in floating storage is bullish for prices. Today's weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -13% w/w to 73.32 million bbl as of Dec 15.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of Dec 8 were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ending Dec 8 was unchanged w/w to 13.1 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.2 million bpd the week ending Nov 24.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Dec 15 fell by -2 rigs to 501 rigs, modestly above the 1-3/4 year low of 494 rigs from Nov 10. The number of U.S. oil rigs has fallen this year after moving sharply higher during 2021-22 from the 18-year pandemic low of 172 rigs posted in Aug 2020 to a 3-1/2 year high of 627 rigs in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
