June WTI crude oil (CLM23) this morning is up +0.25 (+0.34%), and June RBOB gasoline (RBM23) is down -1.44 (-0.57%). June Nymex natural gas (NGM23) is up +0.022 (+0.95%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are mixed, with gasoline falling to a 5-week low. Crude and gasoline have carryover support from Wednesday when the EIA reported weekly EIA crude and gasoline inventories fell more than expected. Also, today's rally in stocks shows confidence in the economic outlook and is bullish for crude prices. However, crude prices fell back from their best levels, and gasoline moved lower on energy demand concerns after U.S. Q1 GDP expanded at a slower-than-expected pace.
June nat-gas this morning recovered from a 1-1/2 week low and is moderately higher. Short-covering in nat-gas emerged after updated weather forecasts called for below-normal temperatures in the central and eastern U.S. next week, boosting heating demand for nat-gas. Prices initially moved lower this morning after weekly EIA nat-gas inventories rose +79 bcf, above expectations of +76 bcf.
Geopolitical risks are supportive for crude after Iran said it seized a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker after it reportedly collided with an Iranian vessel in the Persian Gulf.
Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for crude prices. Today's crack spread fell to a 2-1/4 month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude to refine it into gasoline and distillates.
Signs of stronger Chinese fuel demand are positive for crude prices. China's CCTV reported that about 9 million passenger trips would be made during the week-long Golden Week holidays in China that starts April 29, up +30% from 6.9 million trips in 2019 before the pandemic.
In a bullish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -4% w/w to 98.69 million bbl in the week ended April 21.
The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices. The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline. Oil exports of 400,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.
Crude prices surged on April 3 after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1. Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a "precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market." OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.
Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of April 21 were -0.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.4% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended April 21 fell -0.8% w/w to 12.2 million bpd, only 0.9 million bpd (-6.9%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended April 21 rose by +3 rigs to 591 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2. U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
